人民币国际化进程中资本账户开放面临的挑战与政府应对

发布时间：2018-03-12 22:16

本文选题：人民币国际化　切入点：资本账户开放　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国的人民币国际化是在经历了数十年的人民币非国际化政策阶段、非国际化政策调整阶段后,逐渐过渡到的人民币国际化政策阶段。从人民币走出国门的情况来看,人民币从严密的禁止境外流通到逐步放开限制、开始在周边国家进行边境贸易结算,再到与世界上许多非周边国家建立经济合作和贸易往来,走出了一条从“人民币周边化”发展成为“人民币区域化”,又逐渐成为“人民币国际化”的道路。人民币自2016年10月1日起加入了SDR特别提款权货币篮子,开创了新兴国家货币加入世界货币篮子的首例,成为了全球第五种加入特别提款权的货币。这项进程昭示着我国政府对人民币国际化进程的重视,也显示了国际货币基金组织对人民币及我国政治经济发展的赞许。但与此同时,为了进一步提升人民币的国际化水平,需要我国国际收支两大账户(经常账户、资本账户)逐渐开放,拓宽人民币在世界范围内的可使用途径。目前我国已经顺利开放了经常账户,非居民可以通过经常帐户下的贸易结算来进行人民币投资,但仍需要资本账户的开放来支撑未来人民币国际化进程下的人民币结算交易。而对于资本账户的开放,我国遇到了较大的挑战。目前,我国汇率市场化改革仍存在较大问题。事实上,自2005年汇率制度改革以来,我国的外汇管理体制发生了翻天覆地的变化。在放弃了单一钉住美元的汇率体制后,我国朝着有管理的浮动汇率制度的方向进行着长期的汇率制度改革,到目前为止谈及成功还言之尚早。人民币对美元升值预期明显,经常账户和资本账户的“双顺差”持续,人民币均衡汇率很难形成。同时,当下国内金融监管的最高机构-中央银行和主流金融机构的风险管控能力尚不足以抵抗资本账户开放带来的冲击,资本账户一旦开放,外资银行的介入加上短期资本的大量流入会导致金融危机的风险加剧,部分中低收益率行业将受到重创。因此,在人民币逐步踏上国际化正规的当下,我国需要借助国际上已有的资本账户开放经验,结合自身国情,加大力度完善开放资本账户所需要的前提条件,逐步放开我国政府对资本项目下的交易及货币兑换的管控,严惩腐败寻租,利用香港人民币离岸市场的有利条件,刺激国际货币市场上投资者对人民币的需求、合理利用香港人民币离岸市场的政治、经济优势,保持金融市场化改革的强劲势头,提高我国在世界经济市场中的竞争力。本文在对人民币国际化与资本项目开放的复杂相关关系进行论述后,着力探讨了在现有资本账户管理状况下,我国资本账户开放面对的挑战,从宏观经济水平与微观主体两方面看待我国资本账户开放前提条件的不足,并引入国际上具有代表性的资本账户开放路径作为参照系,从中得到启发,以期对我国政府金融监管及资本账户开放提出一定建议。
[Abstract]:China's RMB internationalization is a gradual transition to the RMB internationalization policy stage after several decades of non-internationalization policy stage and non-internationalization policy adjustment stage. From the point of view of RMB going abroad, From a strict ban on overseas circulation to gradual liberalization of restrictions, RMB began to settle border trade in neighboring countries, and then to establish economic cooperation and trade exchanges with many non-peripheral countries in the world. It has made its way from "RMB periphery" to "RMB regionalization" and gradually becoming "RMB internationalization." the RMB has joined the SDR special drawing right basket since October 1st 2016. It marks the first time that the currencies of emerging countries have joined the basket of world currencies, and has become the 5th currencies that have joined the special drawing rights in the world. This process demonstrates the importance that our government attaches to the internationalization of the renminbi. It also shows the International Monetary Fund's praise for the renminbi and the political and economic development of our country. But at the same time, in order to further enhance the internationalization of the renminbi, we need two major balance of payments accounts (the current account). Capital account) gradually opening up, widening the way the RMB can be used around the world. At present, China has successfully opened its current account, and non-residents can invest in RMB through trade settlement under the current account. However, we still need to open the capital account to support the RMB settlement in the process of RMB internationalization in the future. However, the opening of the capital account in China has encountered great challenges. At present, In fact, since the reform of the exchange rate system in 2005, the foreign exchange management system of our country has undergone tremendous changes. After giving up the single exchange rate system pegging to the US dollar, China has been carrying out a long-term reform of the exchange rate regime towards a managed floating exchange rate system. So far, it is still too early to talk about success. The RMB is clearly expected to appreciate against the US dollar, and the "double surplus" between the current account and the capital account continues. It is difficult to form a balanced RMB exchange rate. At the same time, the risk control capacity of the central bank and the mainstream financial institutions, the highest institutions for domestic financial supervision, is not yet strong enough to resist the impact of the opening of the capital account, once the capital account is opened, The involvement of foreign banks and the massive inflow of short-term capital will increase the risk of the financial crisis, and some of the low and medium yield industries will be hard hit. China needs to make use of the international capital account opening experience, combine with its own national conditions, strengthen efforts to improve the necessary preconditions for opening the capital account, and gradually liberalize the government's control over transactions and currency exchange under the capital account. To severely punish corruption for rent-seeking, to take advantage of the favorable conditions of the offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong, to stimulate the demand for renminbi in the international currency market, and to make rational use of the political and economic advantages of the offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong. Maintain the strong momentum of financial market-oriented reform, improve our country's competitiveness in the world economic market. This paper discusses the complex correlation between RMB internationalization and capital account opening. This paper probes into the challenges facing the opening of China's capital account under the current situation of capital account management, and looks at the deficiencies of the preconditions of opening the capital account from the two aspects of the macroeconomic level and the micro subject. The paper also introduces the representative international capital account opening path as a reference frame and draws inspiration from it in order to put forward some suggestions for the financial supervision and capital account opening of our government.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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