基于系统动力学的稀土储备规模问题研究

发布时间：2018-04-10 18:32

本文选题：预测 + 系统动力学模型　；参考：《内蒙古科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：新世纪以来，稀土资源广泛应用于政治、经济、军事这三个领域。稀土资源是不可再生性资源，日本、美国等国早已构建了自己的稀土储备机制，我国也必须尽早建立自己的稀土资源储备体系。我国稀土资源储量居世界第一，是名副其实的稀土资源大国，但长期以来，由于稀土监管薄弱，导致一些企业在稀土开采环节乱采私挖，走私猖獗，而稀土产业又缺乏科学合理的规划，导致稀土产业链不均衡的现状，在稀土产品领域缺乏技术创新，使得生产的稀土产品结构单一化，而且大多集中在低附加值、低端产品，使得我国稀土对国际贸易的影响一直没有占据主导地位，资源浪费严重，环境污染严重，定价权严重缺乏，由此可见，我国稀土资源已濒临资源匮乏的边缘地带，同时中国在稀土国际贸易地位长期受制于欧美国家，所以进行稀土战略储备是行之有效的方式，可以避免上述稀土市场存在的的各种问题，也是维护我国各领域发展的基本前提，成为了奠定我国坚持走可持续发展道路上一块不可或缺的基石。本文运用系统动力学方法对我国稀土战略储备规模问题进行仿真研究。首先在文献研究的基础上，对稀土战略储备内涵和方式等方面进行梳理；其次运用分析综合法阐述了我国资源分布现状以及稀土产业发展现状，分析了我国稀土产业链结构、我国稀土产业竞争力、我国稀土国际贸易现状以及我国稀土产业面临的问题，，由此引出了我国实施稀土储备的意义，通过结合日本、美国等国家在构建稀土储备体系方面的成功经验，结合我国稀土产业发展现状，然后分析影响战略稀土储备相关因素，选取其中影响较大的因素作为模型的主要因素，确定各相关因素间的相互影响机制，设计两种方案来研究未来15年稀土储备规模。方案一范围是（-0%，+0%），仿真预测出稀土未来15年累积储备量为720551吨，即战略储备规模达到720551吨，该方案下不论供需差发生如何波动，国家都会进行储备或释放调节；方案二范围是（-20%,+20%），预测出未来15年战略储备规模为461331吨，国家只需在这个范围外进行收储释放调节，从而调节市场供求，降低价格波动幅度；最后根据模型仿真的应用结果说明我国在构建稀土储备体系时应根据市场形势变化对我国稀土储备作出动态的科学的合理的调整，同时为储备体系的建立提供政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the new century, rare earth resources have been widely used in political, economic and military fields.Rare earth resources are non-renewable resources, Japan, the United States and other countries have established their own rare earth reserve mechanism, China must also establish its own rare earth resources reserve system as soon as possible.Our country has the largest reserves of rare earth resources in the world and is a country of rare earth resources worthy of its name. However, for a long time, because of the weak supervision of rare earths, some enterprises have been mining and digging privately in rare earth mining links, and smuggling is rampant.However, the rare earth industry lacks scientific and reasonable planning, which leads to the unbalanced status quo of the rare earth industry chain, lack of technological innovation in the field of rare earth products, which makes the structure of the rare earth products single, and most of them are concentrated in low value-added, low-end products.The impact of rare earths on international trade in China has not occupied a dominant position, the waste of resources is serious, environmental pollution is serious, and the pricing power is seriously lacking. Thus, it can be seen that China's rare earth resources have been on the verge of resource scarcity.At the same time, China's status in the international trade of rare earths has long been restricted by European and American countries, so the strategic reserve of rare earths is an effective way to avoid the various problems existing in the above-mentioned rare earth market.It is also the basic premise of maintaining the development of various fields in our country and has become an indispensable foundation stone for our country to adhere to the road of sustainable development.In this paper, the scale of rare earth strategic reserve in China is simulated by system dynamics method.First of all, on the basis of literature research, this paper combs the connotation and mode of the strategic reserve of rare earths. Secondly, it explains the present situation of the distribution of resources and the development of rare earth industry, and analyzes the structure of the industrial chain of rare earths in China by using the comprehensive analysis method.The competitiveness of China's rare earth industry, the current situation of China's rare earth international trade and the problems faced by China's rare earth industry lead to the significance of China's implementation of rare earth reserves, through the combination of Japan,The successful experience of the United States and other countries in the construction of rare earth reserve system, combined with the current situation of rare earth industry development in China, then analyzes the related factors affecting the strategic rare earth reserves, and selects the factors that have a greater impact as the main factors in the model.Two schemes are designed to study the scale of rare earth reserves in the next 15 years.The first scheme is that the accumulative reserve of rare earth in the next 15 years is 720551 tons, that is, the scale of strategic reserve is 720551 tons. Under this scheme, no matter how the difference between supply and demand fluctuates, the country will carry out reserve or release regulation;The second plan scope is "-20", "20", predicted that the next 15 years strategic reserve scale is 461331 tons, the state only need to carry out the regulation of storage and release outside this range, so as to adjust the market supply and demand, and reduce the range of price fluctuation;Finally, according to the application results of model simulation, it is shown that China should make dynamic scientific and reasonable adjustment of rare earth reserves according to the changes of market situation, and provide policy suggestions for the establishment of reserve system.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426;N941.3

【参考文献】