我国金融稳定性指标体系构建

发布时间：2018-04-29 17:00

本文选题：金融稳定性评估 + 金融创新　；参考：《上海师范大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：金融业的稳定与否与政治、经济和社会稳定关系密切。金融危机的频繁发生,更是使得金融稳定问题越来越受到世界各国的关注。国际货币基金组织(IMF)于2011年6月首次对中国金融稳定进行了评估,强调中国政府需尽快加强金融稳定评估体系的构建。目前对我国金融稳定评估的研究主要侧重于定性分析,定量研究也主要以银行脆弱性指数或者金融脆弱性指数作为衡量金融稳定的代理变量来对金融体系的稳定性进行度量,并没有对我国金融稳定性进行整体上的测度。因此针对我国国情建立综合性指标体系势在必行。本文首先在理论层面上总结了金融稳定机制的相关理论,进一步确定了随着金融的发展和创新,现阶段金融稳定的内涵,阐述了金融稳定的特征。列出了宏观经济金融因素、金融系统内部因素、国际金融环境因素这三个方面影响金融稳定性的因素,并从理论机制上阐述各个因素对于金融稳定性的影响机理。在实证部分,通过借鉴前人研究,结合数据的可得性,选取了宏观经济金融因素、金融系统内部因素、国际金融环境因素三个方面共21个指标,构建出了适应现代金融发展状况的我国金融稳定性指标体系。首先使用主成分分析将21个指标聚成了6大类,分别是与国际金融环境冲击因素相关的类别、与银行子系统运行情况相关的类别、与货币金融市场风险因素相关的类别、与宏观经济运行密切相关的类别、与资本市场子系统风险密切相关的类别以及与财政风险密切相关的类别,通过旋转成分矩阵发现与国际金融环境冲击因素相关的因素占的比重最大,为33.06%。在对比了诸多评估方法后,选取BP神经网络法进行评估预警,运用1997年至2012年的数据对所构建的神经网络进行培训,得到了可以针对我国现实进行预警的网络,随之带入2013年的数据,得出了结论,2014年我国的金融环境总体处于相对稳定的状态,其中银行子系统与财政风险、国际金融环境处于较为稳定的状态,货币金融系统、宏观经济、资本市场子系统处于中度风险的状态,最后针对这一结论进行的分析。
[Abstract]:The stability of the financial industry is closely related to political, economic and social stability. The frequent occurrence of financial crisis makes the problem of financial stability more and more concerned all over the world. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) made its first assessment of China's financial stability in June 2011, stressing the need for the Chinese government to strengthen the construction of a financial stability assessment system as soon as possible. At present, the research of financial stability assessment in our country mainly focuses on qualitative analysis, and quantitative research also measures the stability of financial system mainly by using bank vulnerability index or financial vulnerability index as proxy variable to measure financial stability. There is no overall measure of financial stability in China. Therefore, it is imperative to establish a comprehensive index system for China's national conditions. This paper first summarizes the relevant theories of financial stability mechanism at the theoretical level, further determines the connotation of financial stability at present with the development and innovation of finance, and expounds the characteristics of financial stability. This paper lists three factors that influence financial stability from three aspects: macroeconomic and financial factors, internal factors of financial system, and international financial environment factors, and expounds the influence mechanism of each factor on financial stability from the theoretical mechanism. In the empirical part, by drawing lessons from previous studies and combining with the availability of data, this paper selects 21 indicators in three aspects: macroeconomic and financial factors, internal factors of financial system and international financial environment factors. The index system of China's financial stability is constructed, which adapts to the development of modern finance. Firstly, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used to group 21 indicators into 6 categories, which are related to the impact factors of the international financial environment, to the operation of the banking subsystem, to the risk factors in the money and financial markets, and to the risk factors in the money and financial markets. Categories closely related to macroeconomic operations, closely related to risks in the capital market subsystem, and closely related to fiscal risks, The proportion of factors related to the impact factors of international financial environment was found to be the largest (33.06) by rotating component matrix. After comparing many evaluation methods, the BP neural network method is selected to evaluate the early warning, and the data from 1997 to 2012 are used to train the neural network, and the network which can be used to predict the reality of our country is obtained. With the data in 2013, the conclusion is drawn that the financial environment of our country in 2014 is relatively stable, in which the banking subsystem and financial risk, the international financial environment is in a more stable state, the monetary and financial system, the macroeconomic, The capital market subsystem is in the state of moderate risk.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832

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