美国茶党运动和投票行为关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 07:10

本文选题：茶党运动 + 投票行为　；参考：《华东师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：美国茶党运动(Tea Party Movement)兴起于2009年,它反对奥巴马的民主党政府,主张小政府和维护宪法、削减税收和财政赤字,偏向右翼保守主义的价值立场,反对堕胎、控枪、同性恋等。茶党运动拥有完善的组织机构和较为完善统一的运动诉求,依托与共和党的紧密关系,获得了资金、媒体宣传渠道等多方面政治经济资源的支持,2010年具有茶党背景的多名共和党候选人成功当选参议员,共和党也借助这一运动夺回了在众议院的控制权,以及2016年茶党运动组织为共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普助选,足以看出茶党运动对选举政治具有显著的影响。本文运用美国国家选举研究中心(ANES)2012年美国总统选举的调查数据开展实证研究,分析影响茶党运动支持者投票行为的因素,发现茶党运动支持者的社会属性特征(social demographical characteristics)、政党认同(party identification)、议题立场(issue)等因素都对其投票行为产生了重要影响。茶党运动支持者的政党认同偏向于共和党。对茶党运动支持者投票行为影响较大的议题立场主要有税收议题、医疗保险议题、控制枪支议题、国防开支议题、阿富汗战争议题、堕胎议题、环保议题、打击犯罪议题这8个议题。比较2012年和2016年两次选举数据的结果,我们可以看到,茶党运动支持者的投票行为具有以下三个特征:一是对共和党的政党认同趋于稳定,茶党运动支持者的政党认同倾向于共和党,两次选举数据的结果也显示其共和党的政党认同比例几乎没有变化,茶党运动支持者对共和党的政党认同也说明其对共和党保守主义意识形态立场的认同;二是候选人因素的影响比较明显,具体而言就是相比于2012年共和党总统候选人罗姆尼,茶党运动支持者对2016年共和党总统候选人特朗普并不满意,这导致最后在选举中,特朗普获得的投票支持少于罗姆尼,茶党运动支持者用选票表达了自己对这位候选人的不满;三是议题立场仍是保守主义的价值立场占据主导地位,然而茶党运动支持者的保守主义观点在2016年选举中出现了"削弱"的迹象,这说明议题立场这类短期因素具有较强的可变性。
[Abstract]:The Tea Party Movement, which rose in 2009, opposes Obama's Democratic administration, advocates small government and upholds the constitution, cuts taxes and fiscal deficits, favours right-wing conservatism, opposes abortion, gun control, homosexuality, and so on. The Tea Party movement has a sound organizational structure and a relatively perfect and unified movement appeal. It has received funds based on its close relationship with the Republican Party. With the support of various political and economic resources, such as media and propaganda channels, many Republican candidates with tea party backgrounds were successfully elected to the Senate in 2010, and the Republicans also used the campaign to regain control of the House of Representatives. And the 2016 Tea Party campaign's campaign for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is enough to show that the Tea Party movement has a significant impact on election politics. Based on the survey data of the 2012 US presidential election conducted by the National Electoral Research Center of the United States, this paper analyzes the factors that influence the voting behavior of Tea Party supporters. It is found that the social attributes of the supporters of the Tea Party movement and the social demographical characteristics, the identification of the political parties and the issue positions have a significant impact on their voting behavior. The Tea Party supporters' party identity is skewed towards the Republican Party. The main issues that have a great impact on the voting behavior of Tea Party supporters are tax issues, health insurance issues, gun control issues, defense spending issues, the war in Afghanistan, abortion issues, environmental protection issues. The eight topics are the issue of combating crime. Comparing the results of the 2012 and 2016 elections, we can see that the voting behavior of Tea Party supporters is characterized by the following three characteristics: first, the political identity of the Republican Party tends to stabilize. The Tea Party supporters of the party tend to favor the Republican Party, and the results of the two elections also show that their Republican party identity ratio has barely changed. The Tea Party supporters' approval of the Republican Party's political party also shows its approval of the Republican conservative ideological position. Second, the influence of candidate factors is more obvious, specifically, compared with 2012 Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Supporters of the Tea Party campaign were unhappy with the 2016 Republican presidential candidate, Trump, who eventually won fewer votes than Romney in the election, and expressed his displeasure with the candidate with votes. Third, the issue position remains the dominant position of conservative values, but the conservative views of Tea Party supporters showed signs of "weakening" in the 2016 elections. This indicates that such short-term factors as issue position have strong variability.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D771.2

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