局部战争条件下债券动员研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 17:00

本文选题：局部战争 + 资金动员量　；参考：《北京理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：冷战结束后,和平和发展成为当今时代的主流,世界多极化和经济全球化继续曲折发展,总体和平稳定,但因为领土、资源、民族、宗教等矛盾引发的局部战争和武装冲突频繁发生。我国面临着错综复杂的国内外政治与军事环境,存在着诸多安全威胁。为实现国家统一、捍卫国家安全和民族尊严,中国未来可能面临通过局部战争的方式解决台湾、南海诸岛、钓鱼岛、藏南等问题。中国的军费开支长期处于较低水平,发生局部战争需要财政金融动员,债券动员作为财政金融的重要手段,具备动员资金规模大,时效性较高的优点,但债券具有有偿性且债券动员对宏观经济存在一定影响,因此债券动员必须考虑债券动员的成本以及经济的承受能力,将债券动员的规模控制合理的范围内。本文首先提出局部债券条件下债务动员研究的理由;然后从我国的政治、经济、社会的现状出发分析局部战争条件下债券动员的基础,解决局部战争条件下能否债券动员的问题;进而从理论上分析局部战争条件下债券动员对宏观经济造成的影响,同时结合债券动员的特点以及局部战争时期资金需求变化的特点进行债券动员的决策分析,解决局部战争条件下是否进行债券动员以及动员时机的选择问题;最后,对局部战争条件下国债的风险进行评价,在国债风险可控制的前提下计算出局部战争条件债券动员潜力,并以2012年宏观经济数据做实证分析计算出局部战争条件下债券动员的规模,解决局部战争条件下债券动员规模的问题;最终顺利得出结论与建议。
[Abstract]:Since the end of the Cold War, peace and development have become the mainstream of the present era, and the multipolarization of the world and economic globalization have continued to undergo twists and turns, with overall peace and stability, but because of territory, resources, and nations, Local wars and armed conflicts caused by religious conflicts occur frequently. China is faced with intricate domestic and foreign political and military environment, there are many security threats. In order to achieve national reunification and safeguard national security and national dignity, China may face the possibility of solving the problems of Taiwan, South China Sea Islands, Diaoyu Islands and South Tibet by means of local wars in the future. China's military expenditure has been at a low level for a long time. Local wars require fiscal and financial mobilization. As an important means of finance and finance, bond mobilization has the advantages of large scale of mobilization funds and high timeliness. But bonds are paid and bond mobilization has certain influence on macro-economy, so bond mobilization must consider the cost of bond mobilization and the bearing capacity of economy, and control the scale of bond mobilization within a reasonable range. This paper first puts forward the reasons for debt mobilization under the condition of local bonds, and then analyzes the basis of debt mobilization under the conditions of local war from the point of view of the present political, economic and social situation of our country. To solve the problem of whether bonds can be mobilized under the condition of local war, and to analyze theoretically the impact of bond mobilization on the macro economy under the condition of local war. At the same time, combining the characteristics of bond mobilization and the characteristics of the change of capital demand during the local war, the decision-making analysis of bond mobilization is carried out to solve the problem of whether to mobilize bonds and the choice of mobilization timing under the condition of local war. Finally, This paper evaluates the risk of national debt under the condition of local war, and calculates the mobilization potential of bonds under the condition of local war on the premise that the risk of national debt can be controlled. The scale of bond mobilization under the condition of local war is calculated by using the macroeconomic data of 2012, and the problem of the scale of bond mobilization under local war is solved. Finally, the conclusions and suggestions are drawn successfully.
【学位授予单位】：北京理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：E0-054

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