输电项目投资风险分析

发布时间：2018-06-24 03:06

本文选题：风险识别 + 因素分析　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：电能是国家发展的重要动力,同国民经济密切相关,输电网络则是电能输送的重要保证,建设高质量的输电线路是提供可靠、高质量电能的基础。输电投资建设项目具有投资金额大、建设周期长、技术要求高、投资效果影响因素多等特点,并且项目风险受多个环节和因素影响,任何一个环节或者因素没有处理好都会影响项目的进程,从而导致投资风险,造成输电故障,甚至可能带来重大的社会和经济损失。所以对输电投资建设项目进行风险分析并给出相应的管理策略,对输电投资建设项目的顺利开展,提高投资效益方面有着重要意义。论文首先对输电项目投资风险的理论进行了系统性的研究,重点分析了输电项目投资的一般特征,对输电投资风险进行了识别,并分析了风险影响因素。然后介绍了输电项目投资评价分析的方法,并采用盈亏平衡分析法对输电项目投资的经济风险进行了分析并进行了实证检验。得到盈亏平衡量越高,投资项目的风险越大；固定成本占总成本中比例越高,项目的风险系数就越高的结论。运用模糊综合评价分析法对影响输电投资风险的因素进行了分析,得出影响投资风险的主要因素有政治、经济和技术三个主要因素。最后,根据输电项目存在的风险及影响因素,构建了适合输电项目投资风险防范与控制的体系。
[Abstract]:Electric energy is an important power of national development, closely related to the national economy, transmission network is an important guarantee of power transmission, the construction of high-quality transmission lines is the basis for providing reliable and high-quality electrical energy. Transmission investment and construction projects are characterized by large amount of investment, long construction period, high technical requirements, and many factors affecting investment effect, and the project risk is affected by many links and factors. Any failure to deal with any link or factor will affect the process of the project, resulting in investment risk, transmission failure, and even significant social and economic losses. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the risk of transmission investment construction project and give the corresponding management strategy, which is of great significance to the smooth development of transmission investment and construction project and the improvement of investment efficiency. In this paper, the theory of investment risk of transmission project is studied systematically, the general characteristics of investment of transmission project are analyzed, the risk of transmission investment is identified, and the influencing factors of risk are analyzed. Then, the paper introduces the method of investment evaluation and analysis of transmission project, and analyzes the economic risk of transmission project investment by using break-even analysis method and makes an empirical test. The higher the balance of profit and loss, the greater the risk of the investment project, and the higher the proportion of fixed cost to the total cost, the higher the risk coefficient of the project. The factors influencing the investment risk of power transmission are analyzed by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The main factors influencing the investment risk are political, economic and technological factors. Finally, according to the risk and influence factors of the transmission project, the system of preventing and controlling the investment risk of the transmission project is constructed.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61;TM73

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