我国主权信用的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-07-05 15:33

本文选题：主权信用 + 影响因素　；参考：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：主权信用已经成为了国家金融业发展以及经济整体发展中至关重要的部分。金融危机爆发之后,很多国家的主权信用水平受到了巨大的影响,欧洲的许多国家主权信用水平都被频繁调降,就连美国这样的超级大国的主权信用水平也在2011年被下调。相反地,我国在2008年和2010年都有了主权信用水平的上升,本文的主要目的就在于探究何种因素能够影响我国的主权信用水平本文从现有的文献中以及主权信用评级机构的实际评级体系入手,发现了其中的一些问题,并且通过联系我国发展现状,首先得出了能够影响我国的主权信用水平的因素,并且归入了政治、经济以及财政因素。在此基础之上,将政治、经济以及财政因素进行了细分,政治因素分为政治治理因素、国家安全水平以及政策效力。经济因素分为经济存量因素、经济绩效因素以及金融因素。财政因素分为国内财政收支,国际收支以及外债水平,每个指标都有具体的我国的数量值进行说明。在得出我国的主权信用水平影响因素之后,本文将利用主成分分析法对我国的主权信用水平进行评分,并且将指标进一步分类,以验证之前理论分析时分类的合理性。主成分分析法有降维和评分的作用,能够帮助我们得出我国主权信用水平的变化趋势以及影响主权信用水平的主要因素。在此基础之上就能对影响我国主权信用水平的因素做出更加细致的分析。最后,在理论以及实证分析的基础之上,本文得出了结论以及政策建议,经济因素相比于财政以及政治因素,对我国主权信用水平的提升贡献更大,我国应该继续保持高效地经济发展,既包括宏观经济存量,也包括经济绩效因素和金融因素。
[Abstract]:Sovereign credit has become a vital part in the development of national financial industry and the overall development of economy. After the financial crisis, the sovereign credit level of many countries has been greatly affected, many countries in Europe have been adjusted down frequently, and even the sovereign credit level of superpower such as the United States was lowered in 2011. On the contrary, China experienced an increase in the level of sovereign credit in 2008 and 2010. The main purpose of this paper is to explore what factors can affect the sovereign credit level of our country. This paper starts with the existing literature and the actual rating system of sovereign credit rating agencies, and finds out some problems among them. According to the present situation of our country, the factors that can influence the sovereign credit level of our country are obtained, which are classified as political, economic and financial factors. On this basis, the political, economic and financial factors are divided into political governance factors, national security level and policy effectiveness. Economic factors are divided into economic stock factors, economic performance factors and financial factors. The financial factors are divided into domestic fiscal revenue and expenditure, international balance of payments and foreign debt level, each index has a specific value of China's quantity to explain. After getting the influencing factors of the sovereign credit level of our country, this paper will use the principal component analysis method to score the sovereign credit level of our country, and further classify the index to verify the rationality of the classification in the previous theoretical analysis. Principal component Analysis (PCA) has the function of reducing and grading, which can help us to get the trend of sovereign credit level and the main factors that affect the sovereign credit level. On this basis, we can make a more detailed analysis of the factors that affect the level of sovereign credit of our country. Finally, on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper draws a conclusion and policy recommendations, compared with the financial and political factors, economic factors contribute more to the improvement of China's sovereign credit level. China should continue to maintain efficient economic development, including macroeconomic stock, economic performance factors and financial factors.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832

【参考文献】