1996-2010年中国能源碳足迹生态压力研究
发布时间：2018-08-18 17:43
【摘要】：工业革命以后，煤炭、石油等化石能源的过度消费使得全球温室气体排放量大量增加，其所带来全球气候变暖已经演变为人类社会继续向前发展的巨大挑战。如何降低温室气体排放量应经成为国际会议上的最重要的议题之一，在很大程度上左右了当今世界政治、经济、科学技术的发展趋势。作为当今世界负责任的大国，中国在哥本哈根气候大会上做出了 到2020年我国单位国民生产总值二氧化碳排放量比2005年下降40%-45%的目标‖庄重承诺，随后有将这一目标严格纳入到 十二·五‖规划当中，力求实现经济又好又快发展。 本文基于能源碳足迹生态压力的相关理论和研究，定量分析了1996-2010年间中国能源碳足迹生态压力的变化。基于LMDI因素分解法，从能源结构、能源强度、经济因素、森林和草地的人口压力因素四个方面，对影响中国能源碳足迹生态压力的影响因素进行了分析。最后，利用脱钩理论研究了经济发展与中国能源碳足迹生态压力之间的动态关系变化。 本文的创新点主要体现在以下几个方面： （1）在联合国政府间气候变换专门委员会(IPCC)提供的碳足迹提供参考模型基础上，结合现有关于碳足迹计算的最新研究成果与中国的历年实际统计数据，，改进了能源碳足迹计算模型，使得能源碳足迹计算结果更准确。 （2）结合中国现有的森林和草地面积数据，研究了1996-2010年能源碳足迹生态压力的动态变化，这对于了解这段时期内中国能源碳足迹对生态环境产生的影响有着重要意义。 （3）利用LMDI法，在引入森林和草地的人口压力因素这一新的影响因素后，研究了各因素对中国能源碳足迹生态压力。研究结果表明该因素对EPICF的影响要比能源结构因素的大，是不应该被忽视的因素。 （4）将脱钩理论应用到能源碳足迹生态压力的研究中，研究了能源碳足迹生态压力与人均GDP脱钩状态，并用脱钩指数来分析所处脱钩状态的稳定性，这具有一定的学术研究意义和理论研究价值。
[Abstract]:After the Industrial Revolution, the excessive consumption of fossil energy, such as coal and oil, has greatly increased the global greenhouse gas emissions, and the global warming has become a great challenge for human society to continue to develop. How to reduce greenhouse gas emissions should become one of the most important issues in international conferences, which to a large extent affects the development trend of world politics, economy, science and technology. As a responsible power in the world today, China made a solemn commitment at the Copenhagen Climate Conference to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross national product by 40 to 45 percent by 2020 compared with 2005. Subsequently, this goal was strictly incorporated into the 12th Five-Year Plan to achieve sound and rapid economic development. Based on the theory and research of energy carbon footprint ecological pressure, this paper quantitatively analyzed the change of energy carbon footprint ecological pressure in China from 1996 to 2010. Based on the LMDI factorization method, the factors affecting the ecological pressure of China's energy carbon footprint were analyzed from four aspects: energy structure, energy intensity, economic factors, population pressure factors of forest and grassland. Finally, the dynamic relationship between economic development and the ecological pressure of China's energy carbon footprint is studied by using decoupling theory. The innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) based on the reference model of carbon footprint provided by (IPCC) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change, Based on the latest research results on carbon footprint calculation and the actual statistics in China, the energy carbon footprint calculation model is improved. This makes the calculation results of energy carbon footprint more accurate. (2) based on the existing data of forest and grassland area in China, the dynamic changes of ecological pressure of energy carbon footprint from 1996 to 2010 are studied. This is of great significance in understanding the impact of China's energy carbon footprint on the ecological environment during this period. (3) after introducing the population pressure factor of forests and grasslands, using LMDI method, The ecological pressure on China's energy carbon footprint was studied. The results show that the influence of this factor on EPICF is greater than that of energy structure, which should not be ignored. (4) the decoupling theory is applied to the study of ecological pressure of energy carbon footprint. The energy carbon footprint ecological pressure and the decoupling state of GDP per capita were studied, and the stability of the decoupling state was analyzed by using the decoupling index, which has certain academic significance and theoretical research value.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2;X24
本文编号：2190210
[Abstract]:After the Industrial Revolution, the excessive consumption of fossil energy, such as coal and oil, has greatly increased the global greenhouse gas emissions, and the global warming has become a great challenge for human society to continue to develop. How to reduce greenhouse gas emissions should become one of the most important issues in international conferences, which to a large extent affects the development trend of world politics, economy, science and technology. As a responsible power in the world today, China made a solemn commitment at the Copenhagen Climate Conference to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross national product by 40 to 45 percent by 2020 compared with 2005. Subsequently, this goal was strictly incorporated into the 12th Five-Year Plan to achieve sound and rapid economic development. Based on the theory and research of energy carbon footprint ecological pressure, this paper quantitatively analyzed the change of energy carbon footprint ecological pressure in China from 1996 to 2010. Based on the LMDI factorization method, the factors affecting the ecological pressure of China's energy carbon footprint were analyzed from four aspects: energy structure, energy intensity, economic factors, population pressure factors of forest and grassland. Finally, the dynamic relationship between economic development and the ecological pressure of China's energy carbon footprint is studied by using decoupling theory. The innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) based on the reference model of carbon footprint provided by (IPCC) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change, Based on the latest research results on carbon footprint calculation and the actual statistics in China, the energy carbon footprint calculation model is improved. This makes the calculation results of energy carbon footprint more accurate. (2) based on the existing data of forest and grassland area in China, the dynamic changes of ecological pressure of energy carbon footprint from 1996 to 2010 are studied. This is of great significance in understanding the impact of China's energy carbon footprint on the ecological environment during this period. (3) after introducing the population pressure factor of forests and grasslands, using LMDI method, The ecological pressure on China's energy carbon footprint was studied. The results show that the influence of this factor on EPICF is greater than that of energy structure, which should not be ignored. (4) the decoupling theory is applied to the study of ecological pressure of energy carbon footprint. The energy carbon footprint ecological pressure and the decoupling state of GDP per capita were studied, and the stability of the decoupling state was analyzed by using the decoupling index, which has certain academic significance and theoretical research value.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2;X24
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