BT项目回购总价风险实证研究

发布时间：2018-10-25 13:53

【摘要】：BT模式已被广泛应用于非经营性的基础设施建设,该模式下,回购总价是项目投资方和项目回购人的核心关切。为了有效控制回购总价,很有必要识别出影响回购总价的风险因素,并提出相应的风险防范措施。文献表明,目前国内外学者对于BT模式的研究大多是关注影响BT模式成功的主要因素,或是从不同利益主体的角度研究如何对风险进行分配,而对有关回购总价这一具体问题做深入分析的不多。本研究从项目寿命周期的视角,通过文献阅读和访谈识别出影响回购总价的风险因素,并对所识别出的因素进行问卷调查,获得各个风险因素对于回购总价的影响程度。通过对问卷数据的分析可知,对回购总价影响程度较显著的因素可归结为以下6个方面的原因:1)设计的准确性和科学性不够;2)工程项目内部管理不当;3)分包商管理不当;4)业主要求变化或不充分履行义务;5)政治、经济、法律等政策的变化;6)不可抗力事件,在此基础上提出相应的风险防范和处理措施。最后,以百泉水生态修复工程项目为案例进行实证研究,根据风险分担原则,对所识别出的项目风险在项目投资人和项目回购人之间进行分配,并通过合同条款的形式体现合同双方应承担的风险情况。本研究成果有利于我国BT项目投资方提高项目风险管理水平,有效控制回购总价,保障预期利润。
[Abstract]:The BT model has been widely used in the construction of non-commercial infrastructure. In this model, the total repurchase price is the core concern of the project investors and the project repellers. In order to effectively control the total repurchase price, it is necessary to identify the risk factors affecting the total repo price and put forward the corresponding risk prevention measures. The literature shows that most of the researches on BT model at home and abroad focus on the main factors that influence the success of the BT model, or how to distribute the risk from the perspective of different stakeholders. And about the repurchase total price this one specific question to do the thorough analysis not much. From the perspective of project life cycle, this study identified the risk factors affecting the total repo price through literature reading and interviews, and conducted a questionnaire survey on the identified factors to obtain the degree of influence of each risk factor on the total repo price. Through the analysis of the questionnaire data, we can see, The factors that have significant influence on the total repurchase price can be attributed to the following six reasons: (1) the design is not accurate and scientific enough; (2) the internal management of the project is improper; (3) the subcontractor is improperly managed; and (4) the owner requests changes or is not sufficient (v) political, Economic, legal and other policy changes; 6) Force majeure events, on the basis of the corresponding risk prevention and treatment measures. Finally, taking the Baiquan Ecological Restoration Project as a case study, according to the principle of risk sharing, the identified project risk is distributed between the project investors and the repurchase person. And through the form of contract terms to reflect the parties to the contract should bear the risk. The research results are helpful to improve the risk management level of BT project investors, effectively control the total repurchase price and guarantee the expected profit.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F283

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