湖北省产业结构变动对经济增长的影响分析

发布时间：2018-01-09 09:43

本文关键词：湖北省产业结构变动对经济增长的影响分析　出处：《湖北大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：产业结构与经济增长之间往往存在着比较密切的关系,产业结构变动在一定程度上能够推动经济总量持续稳定的增长,而经济总量的不断增长也要求产业结构发生相应的变化。目前,我国大部分地区都处于经济快速增长的阶段,产业结构升级势必将成为各地维持经济高增速的措施之一。但对于不同的地区,产业结构变动与经济增长之间的关系可能并不一样。那么,对于湖北省来说,产业结构变动是否能够对经济增长产生影响?产生着怎样的影响?这些正是本文试图探究的问题。本文拟通过对湖北省1978—2011年的经济发展统计数据进行计量分析,来探究湖北省经济发展过程中,产业结构变动对经济增长的影响作用。全文除绪论外分为五大部分,首先对湖北省经济增长和产业结构变动的现状进行了描述分析。其次,通过定性分析产业结构变动对经济增长造成影响的作用机制,发现产业结构变动主要从两个方面影响经济总量的增长：①产业结构变动通过促进资源的有效配置,推动经济总量的增长；②产业结构变动通过主导产业的更替,推动经济总量的增长。在此理论依据的基础上,建立计量模型对产业结构变动和经济增长进行格兰杰因果关系检验,结果表明：在湖北省,产业结构的变动是影响经济总量增长的显著原因,而经济增长并非产业结构变动的显著原因。在此结果下,进一步通过计量方法测算了三次产业对经济增长的边际贡献,结果显示：第二产业对经济增长的贡献最大,第三产业次之,第一产业最小。最后,本文根据理论和实证的分析结论,认为湖北省产业发展中应该遵循产业演变的规律和地域资源的特色,抓住城镇化和两型社会的建设机遇,并大力发挥科学技术的作用,从而推动湖北产业结构平稳快速的调整。
[Abstract]:There is a close relationship between industrial structure and economic growth. To a certain extent, the change of industrial structure can promote the sustained and stable growth of economic aggregate. The constant growth of economic aggregate also requires corresponding changes in industrial structure. At present, most of our country is in the stage of rapid economic growth. Upgrading of industrial structure is bound to become one of the measures to maintain high economic growth. But for different regions, the relationship between industrial structure changes and economic growth may not be the same. Can changes in industrial structure have an impact on economic growth? What is the impact? These are the problems this paper attempts to explore. This paper intends to explore the process of economic development in Hubei Province through econometric analysis of the statistical data of economic development in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2011. The paper is divided into five parts except introduction. Firstly, the paper describes and analyzes the current situation of economic growth and industrial structure change in Hubei Province. Through qualitative analysis of the impact of industrial structure changes on economic growth mechanism. It is found that the change of industrial structure mainly affects the growth of economic aggregate from two aspects: 1. The change of industrial structure promotes the growth of economic aggregate by promoting the effective allocation of resources; 2 the change of industrial structure promotes the growth of economic aggregate through the turnover of leading industries. On the basis of this theoretical basis, the econometric model is established to test the Granger causality between the changes of industrial structure and economic growth. The results show that in Hubei Province, the change of industrial structure is the significant reason that affects the total economic growth, but the economic growth is not the significant reason of the change of industrial structure. The results show that the contribution of the secondary industry to economic growth is the largest, the tertiary industry is the second, and the primary industry is the least. Based on the theoretical and empirical conclusions, this paper holds that the industrial development in Hubei Province should follow the rules of industrial evolution and the characteristics of regional resources, and seize the opportunities of urbanization and the construction of a two-type society. And give full play to the role of science and technology, thus promoting a stable and rapid adjustment of the industrial structure of Hubei.
【学位授予单位】：湖北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127

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