1919-2008年美国历次经济危机发生前的经济征兆研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 11:29

本文关键词：1919-2008年美国历次经济危机发生前的经济征兆研究　出处：《广东外语外贸大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：对于美国历次的经济危机，国内外学着都有诸多研究，从各个不同方面说明了危机产生的原因，以及如何去预防。但大多数都是纯理论逻辑上的叙述说明，对于预测经济危机没有实质上的帮助。本文试图通过数据来建立某种数量指标来研究经济危机，让人们可以通过这些指标来相对准确地预测经济危机。本文选取1919-2008年间对美国经济影响深远的几次经济危机作为案例，通过分析其危机来临前所出现的共同的经济征兆（货币供求，商业银行贷款及利率，和房地产业），设置经济指标，采用数量分析法和比较分析法，找出各次经济危机的相同点和不同点，以及历次危机来临前与经济处于正常时期的经济指标的临界点或临界区间。本文发现，在经济危机来临之前，货币供给M2会偏高，马歇尔的K值也会偏大，并且高于价格上升的幅度，经济中存在过量的货币供给，，从而引发流动性过剩。商业贷款会明显偏高，利率会降低，从而导致投资过热。同时，大宗产品如房地产业也会出现一定程度的投机过热。
[Abstract]:For the previous economic crisis of the United States, both at home and abroad to learn a lot of research, explains the causes of the crisis from different aspects, and how to prevent it. But most of them are pure theory on the logic description, to predict the economic crisis without substantial help. This paper tries to establish a number of index data to study the economic crisis, people can use these indicators to accurately predict the relative economic crisis.
This paper selects several economic crises during the period of 1919-2008 to the United States far-reaching economic impact as a case, through the analysis of the crisis before the arrival of the common signs of economic (money supply and demand, commercial bank loans and interest rates, and real estate), set the economic indicators, using quantitative analysis and comparative analysis, find out the same the economic crisis and different points, and the critical point of the previous crisis before the advent of economic indicators and economic in normal times or critical interval.
We found that, before the advent of the economic crisis, M2 money supply will be high, Marshall's K value will be larger, and higher than the range of prices, there is an excess of the money supply, causing excess liquidity. Commercial loans will be significantly higher interest rates will be reduced, resulting in overheating investment. At the same time, bulk products as the real estate industry will appear overheated speculation to some extent.

【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F171.2

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