中国股票市场对实体经济影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 19:11

本文关键词：中国股票市场对实体经济影响的实证研究　出处：《经济问题探索》2014年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：股票市场对中国经济发展的影响日益突出,研究采用我国股票市场和实体经济发展水平的相关季度数据,应用基于误差修正模型的长短期Granger因果关系检验方法对股票市场与实体经济之间的关系进行了实证研究。实证研究的结果表明,在长期上,作为股票市场发展基础的实体经济发展水平将极大促进股票这种虚拟经济的健康发展,股票市场的发展反过来也能够有效地带动整个经济的发展;而在短期上,股票市场在一定程度上体现了经济发展的"晴雨表"功能,但由于股票市场作为一种虚拟经济的代表仍然存在着不断独立化发展的趋势以及资本的短期逐利性特征,它的波动并未受到经济波动冲击的显著影响。
[Abstract]:The impact of the stock market on the economic development of China has become increasingly prominent. The quarterly data of the level of development of the stock market and the real economy in China are studied. An empirical study on the relationship between the stock market and the real economy is carried out by using the Granger causality test method based on error correction model. The results of the empirical study show that in the long run. The development level of the real economy as the basis of the stock market development will greatly promote the healthy development of the virtual economy of the stock market. The development of the stock market in turn can effectively promote the development of the whole economy. In the short term, the stock market reflects the "barometer" function of economic development to a certain extent. However, as the representative of a fictitious economy, the stock market still has the trend of independent development and the short-term profit driven by capital, so its volatility is not significantly affected by the impact of economic fluctuations.
【作者单位】：清华大学;北华大学;
【基金】：国家自然基金面上项目“全球经济失衡背景下美国经济政策对中国的溢出效应及其风险隔阻机制的研究”(项目批准号:71173087) 中国博士后科学基金特别资助(项目批准号:2013T60093) 吉林省社科基金项目“吉林省经济发展与供应链协调机制研究”(项目批准号:2011B126)
【分类号】：F224;F124;F832.51
【正文快照】： 近年来,随着金融全球化的快速发展以及金融衍生品的不断推陈出新,有关虚拟经济与实体经济之间的关系也日益受到学界及政府有关部门的广泛关注,特别是自2008年下半年所爆发的全球金融危机以来,关于虚拟经济的功能与作用及今后的发展方向等问题更是成为社会各界普遍关注的焦点和

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