物流基础设施投资与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 07:02

本文关键词：物流基础设施投资与经济增长关系研究　出处：《内蒙古工业大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济全球化,世界经济竞争愈来愈激烈,物流业也越来越受到人们的关注从上个世纪90年代,人们还对物流业具体是什么一知半解,到现在,物流业已被公认为是经济活动的基础和动脉。现代物流业既是经济发展基础又是经济增长的推动剂。它具有降低交易成本、优化产业结构、有助于新兴产业及中心城市的形成等战略性作用。而物流基础设施是现代物流发展的必要条件,也是实现经济腾飞的一个必备前提条件。 2008年,由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机席卷全球,为了抵御金融危机我国政府施行积极的财政政策,为扩大内需出台了十项措施。其中一项是加快铁路、公路和机场等重大交通基础设施建设。2013年7月24日,中国铁路总公司发行2013年第一期中国铁路建设债券,发行总额200亿。据国家发改委规划,2013年,中国铁路建设债券发行规模将达到1500亿元,用于哈尔滨至齐齐哈尔铁路客运专线等73个铁路建设项目,这预示着铁路基建项目和机车车辆招标等事宜将全面展开,铁路建设再度提速。随着国家对物流基础设施建设的投资力度不断加大,物流基础设施建设投资已成为一个热点话题,物流基础设施投资对经济增长的贡献也成为学者们研究的重点。本文按照“理论基础—现状分析一定性分析—定量分析—政策建议”的思路,首先从分析了我国物流基础设施建设投资促进经济增长的两个机理：向前拉动作用与后向波及作用。向前拉动作用主要分析了物流基础设施建设过程中,从投资的角度出发,物流基础设施建设具有乘数效益,增加了相关行业,如钢铁、水泥、重型机械等行业需求,有效的拉动了这些行业的发展,进而促进经济增长；后向波及作用主要运用系统动力学分析了现代物流业与经济增长之间的作用机理,同时,利用2005-2011年相关数据进行仿真,得出物流基础设施建成后,可以缓解物流供需瓶颈,降低经济活动的成本,支撑经济发展的结论。随后本文运用误差修正模型从定量角度分析了我国物流基础设施建设投资与经济增长的长短期关系。测算出了我国物流基础设施建设投资与GDP的弹性系数与短期调整力度。最后得出我国物流基础设施建设投资与经济增长存在长期稳定的关系,且物流基础设施存量已经开始发挥其作用,说明我国物流基础设施已经达到了一定的规模。
[Abstract]:With the economic globalization, the world economic competition is becoming more and more fierce, and the logistics industry has been paid more and more attention from -10s, people still have a little understanding of the specific logistics industry, up to now. Logistics industry has been recognized as the basis and artery of economic activities. Modern logistics industry is not only the basis of economic development but also the driving agent of economic growth. It can reduce transaction costs and optimize the industrial structure. Logistics infrastructure is a necessary condition for the development of modern logistics and also a prerequisite for economic take-off. In 2008, the financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States swept the world. In order to resist the financial crisis, our government carried out positive fiscal policies. Ten measures were introduced to expand domestic demand. One is to speed up the construction of major transport infrastructure such as railways, roads and airports. July 24th 2013. China Railway Corporation issued the first issue of China Railway Construction Bond on 2013, with a total amount of 20 billion. According to the State Development and Reform Commission plan, 2013. China's railway construction bonds will be issued on a scale of 150 billion yuan to be used for 73 railway construction projects such as the Harbin to Qiqihar railway passenger dedicated line. This indicates that railway infrastructure projects and locomotive and rolling stock bidding will be launched in full, and railway construction will be speeded up again. Logistics infrastructure investment has become a hot topic, and the contribution of logistics infrastructure investment to economic growth has become the focus of scholars. This paper is based on the idea of "theoretical basis-current situation analysis-qualitative analysis-quantitative analysis-policy recommendations". Firstly, this paper analyzes the two mechanisms of logistics infrastructure investment to promote economic growth in China: the forward pull role and the backward ripple effect, and the forward pull role mainly analyzes the process of logistics infrastructure construction. From the perspective of investment, logistics infrastructure construction has multiplier benefits, increasing the related industries, such as steel, cement, heavy machinery and other industries demand, effectively pulling the development of these industries. To promote economic growth; The backward ripple effect mainly uses system dynamics to analyze the mechanism between modern logistics industry and economic growth. At the same time, the simulation is carried out by using the relevant data from 2005 to 2011. It is concluded that logistics infrastructure can ease the bottleneck of logistics supply and demand, reduce the cost of economic activities and support economic development. Then, using the error correction model, this paper analyzes the long-term and short-term relationship between logistics infrastructure construction investment and economic growth in China from a quantitative perspective, and calculates the elastic coefficient between logistics infrastructure construction investment and GDP in China. Finally, it is concluded that there is a long-term and stable relationship between investment in logistics infrastructure construction and economic growth in China. And the logistics infrastructure stock has begun to play its role, indicating that China's logistics infrastructure has reached a certain scale.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F253.7;F124.1

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