国际化背景下的中国国家创新体系DSGE模型构建及演化预测

发布时间：2018-01-15 10:34

本文关键词：国际化背景下的中国国家创新体系DSGE模型构建及演化预测　出处：《大连理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：科技创新对于各国经济增长的贡献率日益提升,不论是发达国家还是发展中国家,都已经意识到国家的创新能力将成为各国在国际竞争中成败的重要筹码。因此,有关国家创新能力的提升对策和国家创新体系运行机理的研究备受国内外学术界、国际组织和各国政府的广泛关注,并取得了一些研究成果。我国在建设国家创新体系方面仍存在较多问题。理论支撑方面,我国学者对于国家创新体系研究进行了很多案例研究和实证研究,但利用模型来支持有关政策的分析还不够,对于国家创新体系的研究缺少有效的模型支撑。实际建设中,我国国家创新体系建设仍面临巨大的挑战,国家创新体系总体效率不高,企业创新动力和能力不足,创新环境有待进一步改善,技术转移和扩散活动发展滞后。本文从研究国家创新体系的构成和主体要素间的相互作用关系入手,将国家创新体系的主体要素归结为企业、高校、政府、国际化的中介机构四个“部门”,基于动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)理论,建立四部门的DSGE模型,并利用中国的数据,对模型进行了实证检验。在此基础之上,对我国国家创新体系各部门的行为方式进行了初步分析,以求为国家创新体系建设提供针对性和可操作性建议并对国家创新体系中的主要要素进行了预测分析。本文研究得到,企业创新费用主要取决于企业对于新产品的销售收入水平,知识产权的拥有水平对‘于创新费用投入的影响较不明显,预测到2015年我国企业创新费用将达到8797亿；高校的知识生产在较低的成本水平下有利于获取科研成果,国内技术需求额与技术引进额的比对于高校国际论文的产出具有正向作用和长远意义,预测到2015年,我国高校发表的国际论文数将超过40万篇,国际论文占论文总数的37%；政府主要从两个方面诱导企业进行创新投入,一是通过增加RD投入,二是通过降低企业税负,预测到20巧年我国企业专利申请量达到60万件；我国科技人员人均收入水平的提升对于我国国内技术需求具有正向的促进作用,预测到2015年我国国内技术需求额与技术引进额的比为4.53：1。
[Abstract]:The contribution rate of science and technology innovation to the economic growth of every country is increasing day by day, be it developed country or developing country. Both have realized that national innovation ability will become an important chip of success or failure in international competition. The research on the improvement of national innovation ability and the operational mechanism of national innovation system has received extensive attention from academic circles, international organizations and governments at home and abroad, and some research results have been obtained. There are still many problems in the construction of the national innovation system in China. On the theoretical support, Chinese scholars have carried out many case studies and empirical studies on the national innovation system. However, the use of models to support the analysis of relevant policies is not enough, for the national innovation system research lack of effective model support. In the actual construction, China's national innovation system construction is still facing enormous challenges. The overall efficiency of the national innovation system is not high, the innovation power and ability of enterprises are insufficient, the innovation environment needs to be further improved, and the development of technology transfer and diffusion activities lags behind. Starting with the study of the relationship between the composition of the national innovation system and the interaction between the main elements, this paper summarizes the main elements of the national innovation system into four "departments": enterprises, universities, governments and international intermediary organizations. Based on the theory of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, this paper establishes a four-sector DSGE model, and makes an empirical test of the model using Chinese data. The behavior of each department of national innovation system of our country has carried on the preliminary analysis. In order to provide pertinence and maneuverability suggestions for the construction of the national innovation system, the main elements of the national innovation system are forecasted and analyzed. In this paper, it is found that the cost of enterprise innovation mainly depends on the sales income level of the new product, and the level of intellectual property ownership has little effect on the investment of innovation cost. It is predicted that by 2015, the innovation cost of Chinese enterprises will reach 879.7 billion; The knowledge production in colleges and universities is beneficial to the achievement of scientific research under the low cost level. The ratio of the amount of domestic technology demand to the amount of technology introduction has a positive effect and long-term significance for the output of international papers in colleges and universities. It is predicted that by 2015, the number of international papers published by colleges and universities in China will be more than 400,000, with international papers accounting for 37% of the total number of papers. The government mainly induces enterprises to invest in innovation from two aspects: one is to increase R D investment, the other is to reduce the tax burden of enterprises, and predict that the number of patent applications of Chinese enterprises will reach 600,000 in 20 years. The increase of per capita income of scientific and technological personnel in China has a positive effect on the domestic technology demand, and the ratio of domestic technology demand to technology import by 2015 is predicted to be 4.53: 1.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.3

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