湖南省金融发展与产业结构升级关系的实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-16 14:20

本文关键词：湖南省金融发展与产业结构升级关系的实证分析　出处：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：金融的本质是在资金盈余部门和资金短缺部门之间建立一条资金流转的渠道,可称之为现代经济的核心和助推器,金融发展水平的高低必定会影响一个地区或城市产业结构的调整进程。2010年11月27日湖南省九届十次全会通过的《湖南省十二五规划》中指出,“把结构调整取得重要进展作为规划的主要目标之一,即三次产业结构进一步优化,生产性服务业比重、战略性新兴产业比重和高新技术产业比重明显提高”。由此可见,湖南省想要取得快速稳健发展和在中部崛起战略中走在前列,就必须通过发挥金融体系的支持促进效应来获得比较优势,从而推动产业结构的升级。所以本文试图弄清楚湖南省金融发展和产业结构升级之间的具体关系,探索它们之间的内在规律,通过建立完善有效的金融体系来加快产业结构升级的进程,从而不断的促进产业结构优化升级,提高湖南省经济运行的质量和效益。本文通过对湖南省金融发展和产业结构之间相互关系和作用机制进行理论上和实证上的分析,得出它们之间的因果关系以及贡献程度,然后有针对性的提出政策建议。在借鉴前人已经有的研究方法基础上,本文运用比较分析的方法和计量经济学的工具进行研究分析。文章共分为五个部分：第一部分简要的说明了文章的选题背景、目的、意义、研究思路、方法以及创新和不足之处；第二部分主要是对金融发展和产业结构的有关理论做出介绍,另外,还从金融发展影响产业结构的机理分析和产业结构调整对金融发展的影响两个方面探讨了二者之间的相互关系,并对国内现有的一些具有代表性的金融发展影响产业结构的文章进行了概括；第三部分首先分析了湖南目前的金融发展态势,从银行业、证券业和保险业三大基本金融行业描述了湖南省金融发展状况,概括了金融发展的基本特征,然后从产值比重和就业比重两个方面对湖南省三次产业的演进过程进行了分析；第四部分是本论文的重点章节,包括变量选择、数据来源与模型构建、模型估计、ADF检验、协整关系检验、VEC模型、Granger因果检验和OLS方法估计多元回归模型,最后对整个实证的分析过程和结果进行了小结；第五部分也是本文的重点章节之一,总结了全文并利用实证分析得出的结论,就如何通过发展金融业来促进湖南省产业结构升级提出了一些政策建议。在对金融发展与产业结构的相关理论及文献综述中发现：金融发展是促进产业结构调整的关键所在,而产业结构的调整升级又会反过来推动金融发展。金融活动主要作用于引导空闲资金的优化配置,再通过资金的配置来引导他生产要素的流动,金融资源的流动使得不同行业的产值发生相应变化,进而影响产业结构,金融发展程度越高,这种影响作用就越明显、有效。同样的,产业结构在调整过程中发生的筹资变化、对风险抵御的变化、信息的复杂化都会带动金融发展。在对湖南省金融发展和产业结构现状分析中发现,湖南省金融发展速度快于经济增长速度,金融相关比率在波动中持续上升,各项存、贷款年增长率大幅波动且各项存、贷款总额占金融资产总量的比重呈此长彼消的趋势,间接融资占绝对优势,金融业增加值稳步增长,与中部各省比较而言,湖南省存贷款总额和金融业增加值占第三产业增加值的比重都处于靠后位置,迫切需要加快发展；产业结构由改革开放初期的农业经济时代跨入现在的工业经济中期阶段,由“一、二、三”模式发展为“二、三、一”模式,中间还一度出现过产业结构类型的最高形态“三、二、一”排序,产业就业结构由“一、二、三”转变为“一、三、二”模式,对比发现湖南省三次产业从业人员结构的演变速度远远慢于产值结构的演变速度,这一现象体现为大量劳动力滞留在农业部门中,没有向第三产业实现多余劳动力的转移。实证分析得出的结果有：Johansen协整检验发现当金融相关比率和金融结构比率分别变动一个百分点时能引起第二产业和第三产业产值比重正向移动0.811百分点和0.105百分点,说明金融业的发展确实是能够带动产业发展的,前者对后者具有明显的促进作用,且从变动的数值来看,金融相关比率的提高带来的变化程度要明显大于金融结构比率指标；通过格兰杰因果检验发现金融发展指标与产业结构调整指标只有单向的格兰杰因果关系；多元回归模型可以看出,金融机构存款占地区GDP比重每增加一个百分点,第一产业的产值会相应的增加2.635个百分点,第二产业的产值相应的增加4.086个百分点,第三产业产值相应的增加4.448个百分点,从具体数值上看,金融系统提升募集闲散资金的能力使第三产业的受益程度最大,第二产业其次,第一产业最后。当前,湖南正处在“四化两型”建设的重要历史时期,对于金融这样一个先导产业来说也正处在一个转型的战略机遇期,“十一五”期间全省金融业发展成效显著,融资总量大幅增长,融资结构不断优化,但是仍然存在缺乏合适的金融产业政策、直接融资占比偏低、金融体制改革不够彻底等问题,为了进一步完善金融机构改革,促进金融体系的发展,为湖南省产业结构调整和升级服务,可以从以下几个方面考虑：首先,要正确发挥政府作用,才,能实现金融体制的有效改革。湖南省在政府主导的集中型金融制度下,国有商业银行成为企业的主要融资来源,承担着80%左右的支付结算量,金融资源的配置严重缺乏市场定价和风险分散机制,这必然会产生低效率运行的金融体系,必须转变政府对金融的管理职能,让政府“减政放权”、“松绑让利”,降低政府对资金配置的干预,弱化政府主导的金融资源配置模式,政府要减少行政干预,强化市场在金融体系中的主导地位,才正确发挥政府在信贷资源配置上的权利,同时还要配套公平、诚信的金融法治环境和高效的金融监管体系,“法制”与“信用”两手同时抓,加大打击非法证券交易、保险欺诈等金融违法犯罪行为,严惩逃废金融债务等失信行为,为金融业发展营造良好空间；其次,要提高资本市场直接融资的比重,充分发挥直接融资的产业选择功能。湖南省所处的中部地区属于资本严重缺乏的地区,大量的项目需要资金的支持,要建立科学合理、符合客观实际需求的金融结构,才能够充分发挥金融对经济发展的核心支持作用,应该充分利用资本市场在吸收资金并促使生产要素在区域间合理流动的功能来拓宽融资渠道,扩大直接融资数量,并不断完善资本市场交易制度,加强对股票市场的监管、强迫上市公司诚实披露信息、保障投资者的权益,从而促进资本市场的规范化,提高资金配置效率,发挥直接融资的产业选择功能,优化产业结构；最后,要加快发展与湖南产业结构调整相适应的金融体系。湖南省要想实现经济发展的后发优势,必须把第二产业和第三产业的振兴与发展作为一项重要任务来抓。本文的研究结果表明,金融部门在实现产业结构的调整过程中,确实可以有效地带动资金流和劳动力从农业部门向二、三产业转移,因而可以因地制宜的采取与湖南省的金融发展和产业结构现状相适应的金融发展战略,在促进高科技产业发展方面充分发挥金融的导向作用,引导金融资源向拥有巨大发展潜力的高科技产业倾斜,抑制金融资源流向资源消耗型、环境危害型产业。本文的创新点表现在：1、在研究金融发展对实体经济的作用中,大多文章都只关注宏观经济总量和微观企业主体两个层面,而对金融与产业结构调整等中观层面的研究不多。本文则是从中观的层面考察了金融与产业结构调整的关系,这是本文的一大新意；2、本文系统的分析了湖南省金融业发展和产业结构升级的现状、历程和基本特征,并将其与中部各省及全国进行了比较；3、本文运用协整分析和向量误差修正(VEC)模型,从长期和短期两个方面分析了湖南省金融发展对产业结构升级的支持作用,为如何选择适当的金融政策来促进产业结构的优化升级提供了参考。
[Abstract]:The essence of finance is to establish a cash flow channel between the part of surplus and shortage of funds sector, can be referred to as the core and booster of the modern economy, the financial development level will affect the industrial structure of Hunan province > 12th Five-Year planning in a city or region is the adjustment process of.2010 years in Hunan Province in November 27th nine session of the ten in the plenary session of the "pointed out that" the restructuring made important progress as one of the main objectives of planning, which is three times to further optimize the industrial structure, the proportion of producer services, the proportion of strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries increased significantly. Therefore, Hunan province wants to achieve fast and steady development and the rise in the strategy of walking in the forefront in the middle, we must play through the support of the financial system to promote comparative advantage effect, so as to promote the upgrading of industrial structure. So this paper attempts Clarify the specific relationship between Hunan financial development and industrial structure upgrading, explore the inherent law between them, through the establishment of effective financial system to accelerate the process of upgrading the industrial structure, so as to continuously promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, improve the quality and efficiency of Hunan province economy.
In this paper, through theoretical and Empirical Analysis on Hunan Province financial development and industrial structure relationship and mechanism, the causal relationship between them and the degree of contribution, and then proposes some targeted policy recommendations. On the basis of previous research methods have some basis, this paper uses comparative analysis method and measurement tools economics analysis. The article is divided into five parts: the first part briefly explains the background, purpose, significance, research ideas, methods and innovations and deficiencies; the second part is mainly introduced, the theory of financial development and industrial structure and also influence from financial development mechanism the analysis of industrial structure and industrial structure adjustment on the financial development of the two aspects of the relationship between the two, and the domestic existing some out Representative of the financial development affects the industrial structure the article summarized; the third part analyzes the current situation of Hunan financial development, from banking, securities and insurance industry three basic financial industry in Hunan province were described financial development, summarizes the basic characteristics of financial development, and then analyzed from two in terms of the proportion of output value proportion and employment during the evolution of the three industries in Hunan province; the fourth part is the key chapter of this paper, including variable selection, construction, data sources and model estimation, ADF test, cointegration test, VEC model, Granger causality test and OLS method to estimate the regression model, the empirical the analysis process and results were summarized; one of the most important chapters in the fifth part, the author summarizes the whole thesis and the conclusions of empirical analysis, on how to develop Some policy suggestions are put forward by the financial industry to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure of Hunan province.
Found in the summary of relevant theories of financial development and industrial structure and Literature: financial development is the key to promote the adjustment of industrial structure, and industrial structure adjustment will in turn promote financial development. The main function of the financial activities to guide the optimal allocation of idle funds, the capital allocation of production factors to guide him the flow, the flow of financial resources so that different industry output changes, thereby affecting the industrial structure, the higher the degree of financial development, this effect is more obvious and effective. Similarly, changes in the industrial structure adjustment in the financing process, changes in risk, complex information will promote financial development in the analysis of Hunan Province financial development and industrial structure in Hunan Province financial development speed faster than the speed of economic growth, financial ratio in fluctuation to Continues to rise, the deposit, loan growth rate and volatility of the deposit, the total amount of loans accounted for the proportion of financial assets in this long elimination trend, indirect financing accounted for an absolute advantage, the added value of the financial industry to grow steadily, and the central provinces of Hunan Province, in comparison, deposits and loans and financial sector accounts for third the proportion of industrial added value in the backward position, the urgent need to accelerate the development of industrial structure; from the beginning of reform and opening up the agricultural economy into the middle stage of industrial economy now, from "one, two, three" to "two, three, one" mode, also once appeared the industrial structure type the highest form of "three, two, a sort of industrial employment structure by" one, two, three "into" one, three, two "mode, comparison of evolution of Hunan Province three industry practitioners structure evolution is much slower than the structure of output value Speed, this phenomenon is reflected in a large number of surplus labors in the agricultural sector, did not realize the transfer of surplus labor to the third industry. The empirical results are as follows: Johansen cointegration test found that when financial ratios and financial structure ratio of one percentage point change can cause the second industry and the third industry output value proportion is 0.811 percentage point mobile and 0.105 percentage points, indicating the development of the financial industry is to promote industrial development, the former has obvious effect on the latter, and the change from the numerical point of view, change degree of financial ratio improves more significantly than the financial structure ratio index; found that indicators of financial development and industrial structure adjustment index only one-way causal Grainger the relationship between the Grainger causality test; multiple regression model shows that financial institutions deposit area accounted for the proportion of GDP Each increase of one percentage point, the first industry output value will be increased by 2.635 percentage points, the second industrial output increased by 4.086 percentage points, third industrial output increased by 4.448 percentage points, from the specific numerical point of view, the financial system to improve the ability to raise the maximum benefit level of idle funds in the third industry, the second industry finally, the first industry.
At present, Hunan is in an important historical period of four type two "construction, to finance such a leading industry is being in a transitional period of strategic opportunities," 11th Five-Year "during the development of the province's financial industry has achieved remarkable results, the total amount of financing increased significantly, constantly optimize the financing structure, but there is still a lack of appropriate financial industry the policy of low proportion of direct financing, the problem of financial system reform is not thorough enough, in order to further improve the reform of financial institutions, to promote the development of the financial system, for the Hunan Province industrial structure adjustment and upgrade services, from the following aspects: first, the right to play the role of government, and can realize the effective reform of the financial system. Hunan province in the centralized financial system dominated by the government, the state-owned commercial banks become the main source of financing for enterprises, take about 80% of the amount of payment and settlement, financial The allocation of resources, a serious lack of market pricing and risk management mechanism, it will have a low efficiency of the financial system, the financial management function must change government, make the government "decentralization", "no profit", reduce government intervention in the allocation of funds, the weakening of mode of allocation of financial resources of government, the government should reduce administrative intervention, strengthen the dominant position in the market in the financial system, to play the rights of the government in the allocation of credit resources on the right, while also supporting the fairness, integrity of the financial law and efficient financial supervision system, the "rule of law" and "credit" in both hands grasp, to crack down on illegal securities trading, insurance and other financial fraud to punish illegal and criminal acts of evading and rejecting financial debts and other acts of dishonesty, and create a good space for the development of the financial industry; secondly, to improve the proportion of direct financing of the capital market, give full play to The essential function of industry choice of direct financing. The central region of Hunan Province in which the capital belongs to the serious lack of the area, the project requires a lot of financial support, to establish a scientific and reasonable financial structure, meet the actual needs, can give full play to the core financial support for economic development, should make full use of the capital market in the absorption of funds and to promote the reasonable flow of production factors between regions to broaden the financing channels, expand direct financing amount, and constantly improve the trading system of capital market, strengthen the supervision of the stock market, forcing listed companies honest disclosure of information, safeguard the interests of investors, so as to promote the standardization of capital market, improve the efficiency of capital allocation, play industry select the function of direct financing, optimize the industrial structure; finally, to speed up the development and adjustment of industrial structure in Hunan to adapt to the financial system in Hunan province. In order to achieve economic development advantage, must catch the revitalization and development of the second industry and the third industry as an important task. The results of this study show that the financial sector in the implementation process of readjustment of the industrial structure, can effectively promote the flow of funds and labor from agricultural sector to two, the three industry transfer, which can take the local conditions of Hunan province and the status quo of financial development and industrial structure to adapt to financial development strategy, give full play to the guiding role of Finance in promoting the development of high-tech industry, to guide financial resources to tilt the high-tech industry with great potential, suppression of financial resources to resource consumption, environmental damage type industry.
The innovation of this paper: 1, research on the financial development effect on the real economy, most of the articles are only concerned about the macro economy and micro enterprises in two aspects, and Research on financial and industrial structure adjustment. The meso level is not much. This paper is from the meso level to examine the relationship of financial adjustment with the industrial structure, which is a major innovation of this article; 2, this paper analyzes the status quo of the upgrade of Hunan Province financial development and industrial structure, process and basic characteristics, and with the central provinces and the country are compared; 3, the correction by the cointegration analysis and vector error (VEC) the model, from the two aspects of the long-term and short-term analysis of Hunan Province financial development to support the upgrading of the industrial structure, how to choose the proper financial policy to provide reference to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F832.7;F224

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