通货膨胀不确定性对宏观经济的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-17 12:29

本文关键词：通货膨胀不确定性对宏观经济的影响研究　出处：《天津财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：通货膨胀是一个复杂的宏观经济学问题,近几年来更是成为备受公众关注的社会现象。通货膨胀是我国制定宏观经济政策的必要参考指标,同时也是验证政策效果的重要参考依据。它的波动情况、形成机制以及和其它宏观变量的相互影响关系决定着我国经济能否保持原有趋势持续稳定地增长。近几年来,我国的通货膨胀水平持续居高不下,通货膨胀风险成为制约中国宏观经济运行的重要因素,国内经济学家也在积极探索一种适合中国国情的治理通货膨胀的策略。本文参考了大量国内外的相关文献,将基于理性预期理论的通货膨胀不确定性的研究作为本次研究的核心内容。研究包括四部分。第一部分,以我国改革开放以来的通货膨胀时序图为背景,结合国内外相关理论成果,介绍通货膨胀不确定性的定义、产生的原因及研究意义,以及有关通货膨胀不确定性对宏观经济影响的理论成果。第二部分对通货膨胀不确定性的测度方法进行了对比总结,并选择GARCH模型作为本文的估计方法。第三部分是本文研究的核心,首先运用VAR-GARCH模型估计通货膨胀水平、产出增长水平和通货膨胀不确定性、产出增长不确定性的表达式方程,研究变量间的正负相关关系,其次利用格兰杰因果关系检验验证变量间相关关系的作用方向。第四部分是本文的结论和政策建议,重点在于要将各种通胀管理措施进行有效结合,不能顾此失彼；从减少通货膨胀不确定性的角度加强对通货膨胀预期的管理,有效引导公众的通货膨胀预期等。
[Abstract]:Inflation is a complex macroeconomics problem, which has become a social phenomenon that has attracted much public attention in recent years. Inflation is a necessary reference index for the formulation of macroeconomic policies in China. At the same time, it is also an important reference to verify the effectiveness of the policy. The formation mechanism and the interaction with other macro variables determine whether our economy can maintain the original trend of sustained and stable growth. In recent years, the level of inflation in China continues to remain high. Inflation risk has become an important factor restricting China's macroeconomic operation, and domestic economists are actively exploring a strategy to control inflation that is suitable for China's national conditions. This paper refers to a large number of relevant literature at home and abroad, taking the research of inflation uncertainty based on rational expectation theory as the core of this study. The research includes four parts. This paper introduces the definition, causes and significance of inflation uncertainty with the background of inflation timing chart since the reform and opening up in China and related theoretical achievements at home and abroad. And the theoretical results of the impact of inflation uncertainty on the macroeconomic. The second part of the measurement methods of inflation uncertainty are compared and summarized. The third part is the core of this paper. Firstly, the VAR-GARCH model is used to estimate the inflation level. The expression equation of the uncertainty of output growth level and inflation, the uncertainty of output growth, and the positive and negative correlation between variables are studied. Secondly, the Granger causality test is used to verify the direction of the correlation between variables. Part 4th is the conclusion and policy recommendations of this paper, focusing on the effective combination of various inflation management measures. One cannot ignore one another; From the angle of reducing inflation uncertainty, we should strengthen the management of inflation expectation and guide the public's inflation expectation effectively.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.5;F124;F224

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