“中等收入陷阱”：俄罗斯的挑战与应对

发布时间：2018-01-18 06:17

本文关键词：“中等收入陷阱”：俄罗斯的挑战与应对　出处：《辽宁大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2000年至2008年，，俄罗斯经济发展迅速，GDP增长率平均为7%，人均GDP由2000年的1775美元上升到2008年的11700美元，成为世界十大经济体之一。但是自2008年金融危机之后，俄罗斯经济增长速度放缓，2010、2011年GDP增长率为4.3%，低于新兴经济体的平均值，并且预期不会改善。俄罗斯经济结构扭曲，严重依赖资源型行业。同时国有制成分极高，难以克服技术创新瓶颈，面临增长转型困境。除经济方面，俄罗斯社会、政治方面也不可避免地出现了新的问题。社会方面：2010年，俄罗斯的基尼系数为0.421，超过收入分配差距的“警戒线”0.4。政治方面：公民的基本生存问题解决，会产生更多的民主诉求。随着中产阶级的兴起，这种呼声会越来越高。俄罗斯经济、社会、政治方面出现了不好的迹象，已经进入落入“中等收入陷阱”的危险期。为应对“中等收入陷阱”，俄罗斯政府积极制定补充性增长政策、创新型增长政策、进行民主制度建设，以维持经济增长与社会稳定的良性循环。补充性政策的实施虽然没有使贫富分化得到最终解决（基尼系数没有明显改善），但是人均收入大幅上升，使民众分享了经济增长的成果。创新型增长政策的实施到目前为止并无明显效果，民主制度建设方面则有倒退倾向。 2012年5月7日，普京正式开始了他的第三任期。为应对挑战，带领俄罗斯跨越“中等收入陷阱”，普京勾勒出了一个宏伟议程。由于转型难度较大，俄罗斯跨越陷阱仍需一系列的条件。本文采用大野健一修正后的精英治国模式，运用跨学科分析方法，对俄罗斯“中等收入陷阱”问题进行研究。文章分为六个部分：首先是绪论，主要阐述本文选题背景与意义，研究目标和方法，以及国内外关于“中等收入陷阱”的相关研究。第一章说明“中等收入陷阱”的分析框架，重点揭示“中等收入陷阱”的涵义、落入原因，以及跨越的条件。第二章主要说明俄罗斯在社会、政治、经济方面已经出现了不好的迹象，有落入“中等收入陷阱”的危险。第三章则对俄罗斯为应对“中等收入陷阱”所采取的政策进行分析，重点揭示政策效果。第四章借助以上分析，并且根据普京的竞选纲领以及采取的政策，重点分析俄罗斯面临的挑战。最后为结语部分，阐述俄罗斯跨越“中等收入陷阱”的条件。
[Abstract]:From 2000 to 2008, Russia's rapid economic growth averaged 7%. The average GDP per capita rose from US $1, 775 in 2000 to US $11700 in 2000. It is one of the top ten economies in the world. But since the financial crisis in 2008, Russia's economic growth has slowed to 2010, with GDP growing at 4.3% in 2011. It is below the average of emerging economies and is not expected to improve. Russia's economy is structurally distorted and heavily dependent on resource-based industries. At the same time, state ownership is extremely high, making it difficult to overcome bottlenecks in technological innovation. Facing the dilemma of growth transformation. In addition to economic aspects, new problems inevitably arise in Russian society and politics. Social aspects: in 2010, Russia's Gini coefficient was 0.421. More than the income distribution gap "warning line" 0.4. political aspects: the basic survival of citizens to solve, will produce more democratic demands. As the rise of the middle class. There are signs of bad economic, social and political problems in Russia that are in danger of falling into the middle income trap. In order to deal with the "middle-income trap", the Russian government has actively formulated supplementary growth policies, innovative growth policies, and the construction of democratic institutions. In order to maintain a virtuous cycle of economic growth and social stability, the implementation of supplementary policies has not resulted in the final settlement of the gap between the rich and the poor (the Gini coefficient has not improved significantly, but the per capita income has risen substantially. The implementation of the innovative growth policy has so far had no obvious effect, and there is a tendency to regress in the construction of democratic institutions. In May 7th 2012, Putin officially began his third term. In order to meet the challenge and lead Russia through the "middle-income trap," Putin outlined a grand agenda, due to the difficulty of transition. Russia still needs a series of conditions to cross the trap. In this paper, the "middle income trap" in Russia is studied by adopting the revised elite governance model of Kenichi Ono and the method of interdisciplinary analysis. The article is divided into six parts: first, introduction. This paper mainly describes the background and significance of this topic, research objectives and methods, as well as domestic and foreign research on "middle-income trap." the first chapter explains the "middle-income trap" analysis framework. Focus on revealing the meaning of "middle-income trap", falling into the cause, as well as the conditions of leapfrogging. The second chapter mainly explains that Russia has shown bad signs in social, political and economic aspects. The third chapter analyzes the policies adopted by Russia to deal with the "middle-income trap", with emphasis on revealing the effect of the policy. Chapter 4th, with the help of the above analysis. According to Putin's campaign platform and the policies adopted, this paper focuses on the analysis of the challenges facing Russia. Finally, in the concluding part, the author expounds the conditions for Russia to cross the "middle-income trap".
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F151.2

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