内蒙古低碳经济发展的路径选择

发布时间：2018-01-21 21:12

本文关键词： 低碳经济路径选择协整 GFI因素分解 SD模型系统仿真　出处：《内蒙古财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：从国际的角度来看，近年来，全球气候变暖和她所连带的一系列问题引起了全世界的普遍关注。国际社会已经开始着手反思现有的经济发展模式和能源消费结构，力求尽快构建一个有强劲执行力的行动纲领解决由碳排放引起的全球气候变暖问题。如何应对气候变暖，不仅是一个环境领域的问题，更是一个涉及经济、政治、外交、法律等多个领域的复杂的国际问题，可能使人类的生活和生产方式发生翻天覆地的变化。从国内发展形势来看，中国经济社会发展一定要向低碳、低熵、低代价的生态文明转变。这是不可改变的趋势。内蒙古自治区自改革开放以来，经济持续快速健康发展，呈现出又好又快的发展势头。内蒙古是能源、资源大省，更是一个典型的高碳经济区。顺应经济社会发展趋势，抓住先机，积极发展低碳经济是内蒙古自治区发展的不二选择。面对如此严峻的国际、国内气候变化形势和繁重的节能任务，内蒙古自治区如何在工业化发展和温室气体减排之间寻求平衡，继续保持近几年“内蒙古模式”的经济发展速度是一个亟待解决的问题。国内学者对此也进行了众多研究，但这些研究大部分还是停留在定性研究方面，定量的研究比较少，这必然对自治区政府发展低碳经济存在一定局限。本文拟运用定性与定量相结合的方法，主要做了以下工作：第一部分，作为论文的开端，是论文的基础，主要介绍论文的选题背景、研究意义和相关理论基础，其中重点介绍低碳经济的有关理论，使读者对低碳经济的概念达到一定的认知水平。在此基础上，对国内外的相关研究、发展实践进行梳理，明确现阶段低碳经济方面的研究动态和发展实践水平，进而提出本文的研究思路，，主要内容和研究方法。第二部分,主要研究内蒙古经济发展与碳排放之间的关系，检验内蒙古发展低碳经济的适应性。第三部分,本文计划对内蒙古低碳经济发展现状进行一个描述。具体而言，笔者计划从内蒙古低碳经济发展环境和内蒙古低碳经济发展的探索入手进行分析，分析内蒙古低碳经济未来持续发展的有利条件和基础，及其在发展低碳经济方面做出的努力和发展现状。第四部分是准备部分。通过对内蒙古低碳经济发展系统的研究，明确内蒙古低碳经济发展系统的结构，之后通过因素分解法分析各部分对碳排量的影响程度，确定影响内蒙古低碳经济发展的主要因素。第五部分是本文的核心。这部分主要根据第四部分得到的影响内蒙古低碳经济发展的主要因素来构建内蒙古低碳经济发展的系统动力学（SD）模型。第六部分是本文的路径选择部分。通过第五部分构建的（SD）模型进行系统仿真，找到内蒙古低碳经济发展的最优路径。第七部分是结论及建议部分。根据本文的理论和实证分析，对内蒙古低碳经济的发展给出一些建议。
[Abstract]:From an international perspective, in recent years. A series of problems associated with global warming and climate change have aroused worldwide concern. The international community has begun to rethink the existing economic development patterns and energy consumption structure. Strive to build a strong implementation of the action program to solve the problem of global warming caused by carbon emissions. How to deal with global warming is not only an environmental problem, but also a related economy. The complex international problems in politics, diplomacy, law and other fields may revolutionize the way of human life and production. Judging from the domestic development situation, China's economic and social development must shift to a low carbon, low entropy and low cost ecological civilization. This is an irrevocable trend. Inner Mongolia is a large province of energy and resources, but also a typical high-carbon economic zone. Conform to the trend of economic and social development, seize the opportunity. Active development of low-carbon economy is the development of Inner Mongolia Autonomous region choice. In the face of such severe international, domestic climate change situation and heavy energy saving task, how to find a balance between industrial development and greenhouse gas emission reduction in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region. It is an urgent problem to maintain the speed of economic development of "Inner Mongolia Model" in recent years. Domestic scholars have also carried out a lot of research on this, but most of these studies remain in the qualitative research. The quantitative research is relatively few, which is bound to the development of low-carbon economy of the autonomous region government has some limitations. This paper intends to use the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, mainly do the following work: The first part, as the beginning of the paper, is the basis of the paper, mainly introduces the background of the topic, research significance and related theoretical basis, which focuses on the introduction of low-carbon economy theory. On the basis of this, the author sorts out the relevant research and development practice at home and abroad, and clarifies the research trends and development practice level of low-carbon economy at this stage. Then put forward the research ideas, main content and research methods. The second part mainly studies the relationship between economic development and carbon emission in Inner Mongolia to test the adaptability of developing low carbon economy in Inner Mongolia. In the third part, this paper plans to describe the development of low carbon economy in Inner Mongolia. Specifically, the author plans to analyze the development environment of low carbon economy in Inner Mongolia and the development of low carbon economy in Inner Mongolia. This paper analyzes the favorable conditions and foundations for the sustainable development of the low carbon economy in Inner Mongolia in the future, as well as its efforts and present situation in the development of the low carbon economy. The 4th part is the preparation part. Through the study of the development system of the low carbon economy in Inner Mongolia, the structure of the development system of the low carbon economy in Inner Mongolia is clarified, and the influence of each part on the carbon emission is analyzed by factor decomposition method. Determine the main factors that affect the development of low carbon economy in Inner Mongolia. Part 5th is the core of this paper. This part constructs the system dynamics model of the development of low carbon economy in Inner Mongolia according to the main factors that affect the development of low carbon economy in Inner Mongolia obtained in part 4th. The 6th part is the path selection part of this paper. Through the system simulation of the 5th part of the model, we find the optimal path for the development of low carbon economy in Inner Mongolia. Part 7th is the conclusion and suggestion part. According to the theoretical and empirical analysis of this paper, some suggestions on the development of low carbon economy in Inner Mongolia are given.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F224

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