Global Business Cycle Mismatch, Supply Side Reform and Mediu

  本文关键词：国际经济周期错配、供给侧改革与中国经济中高速增长，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

国际经济周期错配、供给侧改革与中国经济中高速增长

The Global Business Cycle Mismatch, Supply Side Reform and Medium-High Speed Growth Rate in China

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WANG Hongju, WANG Chuan （National Academy of Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 100028）

中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,100028

文章摘要：2015年，中国经济步入“新常态”，通过灵活运用货币金融政策，中国成功抵御金融风险；财政政策加力增效，经济增长平稳减速；生产部门物价低迷，但避免了消费领域通货紧缩；经济结构不断优化，为创新创业提供了新的动力。2016年，，全球经济有望继续缓慢复苏，但经济周期错配格局将加大经济下行风险。作为“十三五”规划的开局之年，2016年中国经济增长仍有下行压力，需要加大供给侧改革力度，并从供需两端共同发力，实现经济稳中求进的目标，保证经济增长运行在中高速的合理区间。

Abstr：China has entered a ＂new normal＂ economic period in 2015. The central government warded off financial risk through flexible use of monetary and fiscal policy, achieved a soft landing via structural expansive fiscal policy, avoided deflation in consumption sector despite slumping prices in productive sector, optimized the economic structure, and provided a new impetus to innovation and entrepreneurship. In 2016, the world economy is projected to slow recovery, and downside risks to the world economy appear more pronounced due to the aggravating global business cycle mismatches. 2016 is the first year of the＂ 13th Five-year Plan＂. Constrained by the international business cycle mismatch, economic growth is expected to face downward pressure. In order to achieve the target of economic progress while maintaining stability, and guarantee that the economic growth is running at medium-high speed in a reasonable range, the central government should not ignore the important role of demand side policies while the remarkebale reform in the supply side gets advanced.

文章关键词：

Keyword：:Global Business Cycle Mismatch, Supply Side Reform and Medium-High Speed Growth

课题项目：国家自然科学基金管理学部2015年第2期应急项目“国际大宗商品价格走势与输入性通货紧缩影响研究”（批准号：71541014）;“债务处置周期对通货紧缩预期的影响机制研究”（批准号：71541015）;中国社科院创新工程项目“创新和完善宏观调控方式与风险防控研究”（项目号：2016CJY008）.

  本文关键词：国际经济周期错配、供给侧改革与中国经济中高速增长，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。