中国民生投入对经济增长的影响分析

发布时间：2018-04-02 07:15

本文选题：民生　切入点：面板数据　出处：《陕西师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济经历了深刻地变革和发展,在30多年的历程中,年均GDP增长率超过了9%,2011年国内生产总值世界第二。实现社会经济地发展,归根结底是为了改善民生。十七大之后政府将“改善民生”问题第一次摆在了突出的位置,一时成为了学术界讨论的热点。那么政府对于民生的改善是否能够促进经济的发展,这种发展是否造成了区域间的差异,是本文重点研究的内容。本文首先针对中国当前社会经济地持续增长与民生发展现状为研究背景,阐述研究民生投入与经济发展的现实意义,选取教育、医疗卫生、科技、社会保障与就业以及文化体育与传媒财政支出作为民生投入指标,在新古典经济增长理论的分析框架之下,建立了一个包含民生投入扩展的生产函数,选取中国30个省份2000-2011年实际GDP作为产出指标,物质资本、民生以及劳动力作为投入指标,进行面板计量分析,结果显示,从全国来看,相比物质资本与劳动力,政府的民生支出对于经济的贡献相对较小,其贡献度大小依次是教育、文化体育与传媒、社会保障与就业、科技以及医疗,同时区域间差异较明显,呈现自东向西逐渐递减的趋势。其次使用DEA-Malmquist指数分解方法,基于包含民生投入扩展的生产函数,对于中国2000-2011年的全要素生产率进行测算和分解,结果显示,各年民生投入对于经济的效率整体欠佳,呈现自东向西逐渐递减的趋势,区域差异较为明显,而全要素生产率12年间整体呈现上升趋势,西部地区全要素生产率增长速度较为明显,基本与中部地区增长速度保持一致。然后针对以上民生投入与经济发展较强的区域适应性,引入二进制的空间权重矩阵,对全要素生产率进行了空间相关性的初步探索分析,结果显示,中国省域之间存在正的空间相关性,且2000-2011年较为稳定,省域之间存在“连带”效应,即省份内部的发展会在一定程度上带动相邻省份地发展。文中最后针对以上分析的主要结论进行了相关的政策建议,并进行了研究展望,为本文的进一步研究提供了可靠的后续保障。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has undergone profound changes and development. In the course of more than 30 years, the average annual GDP growth rate has exceeded 9%. In 2011, the world's gross domestic product (GDP) was second in the world. In the final analysis, it is to improve people's livelihood. After the 17th National Congress, the government put the issue of "improving people's livelihood" in a prominent position for the first time, and for the time being it became a hot topic of discussion in academia. Well, will the government improve the people's livelihood to promote economic development? Whether this kind of development causes the difference between regions is the main content of this paper. Based on the research background of China's current social and economic sustainable growth and the current situation of people's livelihood development, this paper expounds the practical significance of research on people's livelihood investment and economic development, and selects education, medical and health care, science and technology. Social security and employment, as well as cultural, sports and media financial expenditure, as indicators of people's livelihood input, under the new classical economic growth theory analysis framework, established a production function including the expansion of people's livelihood input. The actual GDP of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2011 is selected as output index, material capital, people's livelihood and labor force as input index, and the panel econometric analysis shows that, from the national point of view, compared with material capital and labor force, Government expenditure on people's livelihood contributes relatively little to the economy, and its contribution is in turn education, culture, sports and the media, social security and employment, science and technology, and medical care. At the same time, there are significant regional differences. The trend is gradually decreasing from east to west. Secondly, the DEA-Malmquist exponential decomposition method is used to measure and decompose the total factor productivity of China from 2000 to 2011 based on the production function which includes the expansion of people's livelihood input. The results show that, The overall economic efficiency of people's livelihood input in each year is poor, showing a decreasing trend from east to west. The regional differences are obvious, while the total factor productivity has been on the rise in the past 12 years. The growth rate of total factor productivity in the western region is obvious, which is basically consistent with the growth rate in the central region. Secondly, the binary spatial weight matrix is introduced in view of the regional adaptability of the above investment in people's livelihood and the development of economy. The spatial correlation of total factor productivity (TFP) is analyzed. The results show that there is positive spatial correlation among provinces in China, and it is stable from 2000 to 2011, and there are "joint and several" effects among provinces. That is to say, the development within the province will drive the development of neighboring provinces to a certain extent. In the end, the paper carries out the relevant policy recommendations for the main conclusions of the above analysis, and carries on the research prospect. It provides a reliable guarantee for the further study of this paper.
【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1;F126

【参考文献】