新疆财政支出对居民消费需求影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-02 13:17

本文选题：新疆　切入点：财政支出　出处：《新疆财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,新疆经济发展取得了长足的进步，国内生产总值高速增长，居民生活水平不断提高。但不容忽视的是，新疆经济和社会发展仍存在很多亟待解决的问题，高投资、低消费的不合理经济驱动模式造成新疆地方经济增长结构失衡，政府失灵、外部性、社会保障机制的缺失等导致民生领域积累了大量社会矛盾。在这种情况下，探索一条既能够促进消费，又能够改善经济与社会的发展道路，显得尤为重要。然而市场本身无力自行调节达到这种“两全其美”的效果，那么由政府运用财政政策进行干预是弥补市场失灵的必然选择，而财政支出通常被认为是最直接也是最有效的财政政策工具。本文首先从理论上阐述了财政支出对居民消费的作用机制。其次对现阶段新疆财政支出及城乡居民消费支出的发展变化进行了现状分析，并探讨了新疆居民消费低迷和城乡居民消费差距的原因。然后在消费者跨期替代最优控制模型的基础上，构建了财政支出分别与城镇和农村居民消费支出之间关系和财政支出对城乡居民消费差距影响的计量模型，运用时间序列模型对1980～2010年间新疆的时间序列数据进行检验。通过实证分析发现：财政支出的增加有利于增加居民消费，财政支出结构对城乡居民消费影响差异大，，财政支出结构除了经济建设支出外，对居民消费差距有着不同的影响；行政管理支出不仅抑制居民消费，而且扩大了城乡居民消费差距；城乡居民收入对城乡居民消费的影响程度依旧很大，城乡居民收入差距促进了城乡居民消费差距。财政支出对城乡居民消费的影响不尽相同，财政支出结构对城乡居民消费影响不同，进而说明了财政支出效率低和财政支出结构不合理。在文章最后一部分，根据结论分别从财政支出力度、优化财政支出结构、提高财政支出效率、发展经济和提高居民收入、完善社会保障制度、产业转移和改善消费环境等角度提出对策扩大新疆居民消费。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, Xinjiang has made considerable progress in economic development, with the rapid growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) and the continuous improvement of the living standards of the residents. However, it should not be ignored that there are still many problems to be solved urgently in the economic and social development of Xinjiang. The irrational economic driving mode of high investment and low consumption causes the imbalance of the local economic growth structure in Xinjiang, the government failure, externality, the lack of social security mechanism, and so on, resulting in the accumulation of a large number of social contradictions in the field of people's livelihood. It is particularly important to explore a path that can both promote consumption and improve economic and social development. However, the market itself is unable to adjust itself to achieve this "best of both worlds" effect. Therefore, government intervention with fiscal policy is an inevitable choice to make up for market failure, and fiscal expenditure is usually regarded as the most direct and effective tool of fiscal policy. Firstly, this paper expounds the mechanism of fiscal expenditure on residents' consumption theoretically. Secondly, it analyzes the current situation of the development and change of Xinjiang's fiscal expenditure and urban and rural residents' consumption expenditure. The reasons for the low consumption and the gap between urban and rural residents in Xinjiang are discussed. Then, based on the optimal control model of intertemporal substitution of consumers, The relationship between fiscal expenditure and consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents and the influence of fiscal expenditure on the consumption gap between urban and rural residents were established. The time series model was used to test the time series data of Xinjiang from 1980 to 2010. Through the empirical analysis, it is found that the increase of fiscal expenditure is beneficial to increase the consumption of residents, and the structure of fiscal expenditure has great influence on the consumption of urban and rural residents, and the structure of fiscal expenditure has different effects on the consumption gap except economic construction expenditure. Administrative expenditure not only restrains residents' consumption, but also widens the gap between urban and rural residents' consumption; the influence of urban and rural residents' income on urban and rural residents' consumption is still very large. The income gap between urban and rural residents promotes the consumption gap between urban and rural residents. The influence of fiscal expenditure on urban and rural residents' consumption is different, and the structure of fiscal expenditure has different effects on urban and rural residents' consumption. In the last part of the article, according to the conclusion, we optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, improve the efficiency of fiscal expenditure, develop economy and raise the income of residents, according to the conclusion of the last part of the article, we can optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, improve the efficiency of fiscal expenditure, develop the economy and raise the income of residents. From the angle of perfecting social security system, transferring industry and improving consumption environment, the author puts forward some countermeasures to expand resident consumption in Xinjiang.
【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F812.7

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