基于Panel Data的中国大陆对外贸易空间格局变化与趋势研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 23:38

本文选题：对外贸易　切入点：空间格局　出处：《辽宁师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自上世纪90年代以来，全球贸易飞速发展，贸易空间格局也发生了巨大变化。在此过程中，中国大陆的对外贸易发展神速，进出口总额突飞猛进，占世界贸易额的比重不断上升，现已成功跃居为世界第二大贸易国，世界第一大出口国；对外贸易商品结构不断优化升级，工业制成品在我国出口商品中占据绝对主导地位，步入21世纪，在工业制成品出口中，资本技术密集型产品取代劳动密集型产品成为我国出口主导产品。为了更进一步参与国际分工，掌握国际贸易动态趋势，实现自身经济可持续发展和产业结构优化升级，从贸易大国转变为贸易强国，就需要深刻认识与我国紧密联系的世界各地区贸易空间格局变化，并对未来世界贸易大环境的发展趋势进行预测判断。本文以有关对外贸易理论为基础，运用面板数据模型，兼顾传统多要素关联分析、时间序列分析，同时考虑结构（空间结构）特征和区域经济“增长惯性”等因素，发挥面板数据特点，建立综合性的解释及预测模型，重点研究了中国对外贸易发展与世界各国经济增长之间的内在关联性。论文以我国政府对外公布的对外贸易数据以及世界各国经济增长数据为基础，以典型的世界贸易额列前20位的国家和世界经济地理板块为基本空间分辨率，收集整理1990年～2010年间各时段对外贸易和各国经济增长的时间序列数据，借助商品贸易额和商品结构要素变化特点，从进口、出口和进出口三方面分析中国与全球其他基本地理单元之间的贸易增长特征、增长的关联因素，，研究世界贸易格局变化特点，采用定量分析和定性分析相结合的方式，运用地理信息系统技术（GIS）实现贸易发展的空间表达，基于建立的“fixed-cof”面板数据（panel data）模型，对中国大陆与全球其他地区的贸易增长进行了预测，进一步展望中国大陆对外贸易格局的变化趋势。据此，提出改善中国大陆对外贸易环境、促进对外贸易的可持续增长的一般对策。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990 s, global trade has developed rapidly, and the spatial pattern of trade has changed greatly.In this process, China's foreign trade has developed rapidly, the total import and export volume has increased by leaps and bounds, the proportion of the world trade volume has been rising, and it has successfully become the second largest trading country in the world and the first largest exporter in the world.The structure of foreign trade commodities is continuously optimized and upgraded, and manufactured goods occupy an absolute dominant position in China's export commodities. In the 21st century, industrial manufactured goods are exported in China.Capital-technology-intensive products replace labor-intensive products as the leading export products in China.In order to further participate in the international division of labor, grasp the dynamic trend of international trade, realize the sustainable development of their own economy and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, and transform from a trading power to a powerful trading country,It is necessary to have a deep understanding of the changes of trade spatial pattern in various regions of the world which are closely linked with China, and to predict the development trend of the world trade environment in the future.Based on the theory of foreign trade, using panel data model, this paper takes into account the traditional multi-factor correlation analysis, time series analysis, structural (spatial structure) characteristics and "growth inertia" of regional economy, and so on.This paper gives full play to the characteristics of panel data, establishes a comprehensive interpretation and prediction model, and focuses on the internal relationship between the development of China's foreign trade and the economic growth of various countries in the world.Based on the foreign trade data published by our government and the economic growth data of various countries in the world, the paper takes the typical top 20 countries in the world trade volume and the world economic geographical plate as the basic spatial resolution.To collect and collate the time series data of foreign trade and economic growth of various countries during 1990 and 2010, with the help of the changing characteristics of commodity trade volume and commodity structure elements, import from China.This paper analyzes the characteristics of trade growth between China and other basic geographical units of the world, the related factors of growth, studies the changing characteristics of world trade pattern, and adopts the combination of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis.The spatial expression of trade development is realized by using GIS technology. Based on the "fixed-cof" panel data panel data model, the trade growth between mainland China and the rest of the world is forecasted.Further look forward to the changing trend of mainland China's foreign trade pattern.Based on this, the general countermeasures to improve the foreign trade environment and promote the sustainable growth of foreign trade in mainland China are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752;F224;F129.9

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