中国跨省消费风险分担的渠道研究

发布时间：2018-04-05 20:13

本文选题：风险分担　切入点：财政渠道　出处：《南京财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：在现实世界中，风险处处存在。很多因素都可能使家庭收入受到冲击，这些冲击给居民的收入以及消费造成了不确定性，，降低了居民的福利。对于国内单个省份而言，当遭遇特定的冲击时，如果国内各省份间存在风险分担的渠道，那么就可以降低收入和消费的波动，减少因收入和消费波动而引起的福利损失。研究发现，地区间存在若干种渠道来分担收入风险。然而，即使是在发达国家，完全的风险分担的经验证据也极其有限，因此，要研究在现实中消费风险分担并不完全的原因，就有必要对地区间风险分担的渠道进行识别，并进而深入研究各种渠道对于风险分担的作用机制和影响。发展中国家往往由于市场机制不完善，其收入风险应对相对于世界发达地区而言更为困难。因此，研究如何减轻这些地区的收入风险造成的恶果便成为经济学的一个核心课题。而我国在经济转轨过程中出现的一些显著特征使得我们应该开辟新的视角，针对我国的现实情况来研究我国跨省消费风险分担的渠道问题。本文主要利用我国29个省、直辖市1980-2011年的省级面板数据，在前人研究的基础上，开辟新的视角，首先结合我国的特殊国情，对我国可能存在的跨省风险分担渠道进行分析，重点分析我国财政转移支付制度、正规和非正规的融资渠道、金融全球化发展，工业化和城市化发展可能对跨省风险分担产生的影响。然后在接下来的实证分析中，首先根据ASY的经典模型计算出我国各风险分担渠道的贡献，以此对我国各省风险分担渠道的总体状况进行一个简单直观的描述。考虑到我国可能的风险分担渠道的复杂性和多样性，我们将所有风险分担渠道分为两大类：财政渠道和非财政渠道。我们重点对风险分担非财政渠道进行了进一步的分析，研究发现，正规的金融渠道对于促进跨省风险分担的贡献很小，而非正规融资渠道对风险分担起抑制作用，且对沿海省份的抑制作用相对较小，而对内陆省份的抑制作用相对较大。而金融全球化发展并没有如预想的那样促进了跨省风险分担水平，反而抑制了全国范围和内陆省份的跨省风险分担水平。而城市化发展主要对劳动力流出较多的省份的风险分担水平贡献较大，原因可能是农民工汇款问题。通过以上研究，我们发现无论是财政渠道还是非财政渠道在分散省际风险方面都还存在较大的改进空间。因此单纯从风险分担的角度来看，在健全财政体制和金融市场，降低区域发展不均衡性仍然是未来经济结构调整的必要组成部分。
[Abstract]:In the real world, risk exists everywhere.Many factors are likely to hit household incomes, which create uncertainty about household incomes and consumption and lower welfare.For a single province in China, if there is a channel of risk sharing among the provinces, the fluctuation of income and consumption can be reduced, and the welfare loss caused by fluctuation of income and consumption can be reduced.The study found that there are several channels between regions to share income risk.However, even in developed countries, the empirical evidence of complete risk-sharing is extremely limited. Therefore, to study the causes of incomplete consumption risk sharing in reality, it is necessary to identify the channels of risk sharing between regions.Furthermore, the mechanism and effect of various channels on risk sharing are studied.The income risk of developing countries is more difficult than that of the developed regions of the world because of the imperfect market mechanism.Therefore, the study of how to reduce the income risk in these areas has become a core issue of economics.In the process of economic transition, we should open up a new angle of view and study the channel of cross-provincial consumption risk sharing in view of the reality of our country.This paper mainly uses the provincial panel data of 29 provinces and municipalities directly under the Central Government from 1980 to 2011, on the basis of previous studies, opens up a new angle of view, first of all, combined with the special situation of our country, analyzes the possible inter-provincial risk sharing channels in our country.This paper focuses on the analysis of the financial transfer payment system, formal and informal financing channels, the development of financial globalization, industrialization and urbanization, which may have an impact on cross-provincial risk sharing.Then, in the following empirical analysis, the contribution of each risk sharing channel is calculated according to the classical model of ASY, and the general situation of the risk sharing channel in each province of our country is described simply and intuitively.Considering the complexity and diversity of possible risk sharing channels in China, we divide all risk sharing channels into two categories: financial channels and non-financial channels.We focus on the further analysis of non-financial channels for risk-sharing, and find that formal financial channels have little contribution to promoting risk-sharing across provinces, while informal financing channels play a restraining role in risk-sharing.The inhibitory effect on coastal provinces is relatively small, while that on inland provinces is relatively large.However, the development of financial globalization has not promoted the level of cross-provincial risk sharing as expected, on the contrary, it has restrained the cross-provincial risk sharing level in the whole country and inland provinces.The development of urbanization mainly contributes to the risk sharing level of provinces with more labor outflow, which may be due to the problem of migrant workers' remittances.Through the above research, we find that there is still much room for improvement in dispersing inter-provincial risk in both financial channels and non-financial channels.Therefore, from the point of view of risk sharing, in order to perfect the financial system and financial market, to reduce the imbalance of regional development is still a necessary part of the economic structure adjustment in the future.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;F812;F832

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