碳排放情景、居民消费与低碳消费发展前景

发布时间：2018-04-19 09:33

本文选题：碳排放情景 + 居民消费　；参考：《消费经济》2014年02期

【摘要】：本文基于碳排放与居民消费间存在正相关关系的假设,对国内外研究机构关于多种情景下碳排放量及社会消费品零售总额的相关预测做了梳理,并构建了一个一阶自回归模型,利用2002-2010年省际面板数据,通过追踪已发生的消费及碳排放行为,证明了居民消费与碳排放间的正相关关系;然后利用模型,对2020年中国的碳排放量做了预测,并与主要机构的预测做了对比。研究发现,在常规条件下,随着社会消费品零售总额的增加,中国的碳排量到2020年将不会低于69亿吨。此后,由于中国的人口总量、经济增长仍有可能处于上升期,人们对提高消费水平、改善消费结构的需求空间依然很大,社会消费品零售总额也将继续处在上升通道。因此,为尽快达到碳峰值,必须努力改善消费结构,提高公众低碳消费意识,降低个人低碳消费成本,鼓励养成低碳生活习惯,弱化碳排放与消费间的关联性。
[Abstract]:Based on the hypothesis that there is a positive correlation between carbon emissions and household consumption, this paper combs the relevant predictions of carbon emissions and total retail sales of consumer goods under various scenarios by domestic and foreign research institutions, and constructs a first-order autoregressive model.Using the data of interprovincial panel from 2002 to 2010, this paper proves the positive correlation between resident consumption and carbon emissions by tracking the consumption and carbon emission behavior that has taken place, and then forecasts the carbon emissions of China in 2020 by using the model.The results are compared with those of the main institutions.Since then, due to the total population of China, economic growth is still likely to be on the upswing. There is still a lot of room for people to improve the consumption level and structure, and the total retail sales of consumer goods will continue to rise.Therefore, in order to reach the carbon peak as soon as possible, we must improve the consumption structure, raise the public's low carbon consumption awareness, reduce the individual low carbon consumption cost, encourage the formation of low-carbon living habits, and weaken the correlation between carbon emissions and consumption.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学政府管理学院;北京师范大学社会发展与公共政策学院;
【分类号】：F205;F126.1

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