基于生态要素的天津市可持续发展评价

发布时间：2018-04-21 05:23

本文选题：生态要素 + 可持续发展　；参考：《天津理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：环境与发展是社会发展的永恒话题。实施可持续发展必然将依托某一具体区域，区域可持续发展作为理论研究和实证研究的纽带，一直是可持续发展研究领域的难点和热点。目前，国内外对区域可持续发展研究仍处于研究阶段，如何定量的对可持续发展进行科学评价分析，还没有一套被广泛接受的方法或模型。本文首先对区域可持续发展理论和生态要素论进行综述，通过收集天津市的基础资料，对其可持续发展现状进行简要的分析；然后，基于生态要素分别构建了DPSIR模型和生态效率DEA模型，并结合天津市2001-2010年十年间的数据，，分别运用主成分分析和数据包络方法对DPSIR模型和生态效率DEA模型进行测算；最后，根据测算结果对天津市可持续发展能力进行分析评价。主要研究内容包括： 1.对生态要素和可持续发展理论及其评价方法进行综述，提出了本文所研究的生态要素的概念，对区域可持续发展的研究范围进行界定以确定研究对象和研究重点，并综述和总结了国内外区域可持续发展评价指标体系。在此基础之上，根据天津市1996-2010年15年期间社会、经济、资源等方面的实际数据，分别从人口、社会、经济、生态要素等四个子系统对天津市可持续发展现状进行研究分析，找出其可持续发展的有利因素和不利因素。 2.本文将生态要素引入DPSIR模型，从低碳角度出发构建包含5个系统层、31个基础指标的天津市低碳经济可持续发展评价指标体系，然后运用主成分分析法确定指标体系中各指标权重，采用线性加权法计算2001—2010年天津市低碳经济可持续发展水平综合指数值UESDI，并结合相关评价标准得出天津市低碳经济发展等级，结果表明近十年来天津市基本处于高碳经济发展，其可持续发展能力较弱。 3.将生态要素引入DEA模型，结合生态要素效率的特点，构建了环境、资源两个层面包含能源消耗总量、用水总量、建设用地面积、就业人员总数、废水排放量、固体废弃物等基础指标的生态要素可持续发展评价指标体系，根据2006-2010年全国20个省、市地区的面板数据，运用C2R、BC2以及SE-DEA模型测算包括天津在内的全国20个省、市地区的生态效率值，结果发现天津市生态效率值排名偏低，其可持续发展能力较弱。
[Abstract]:Environment and development are eternal topics of social development. The implementation of sustainable development is bound to rely on a specific region. As a link of theoretical and empirical research, regional sustainable development has always been a difficult and hot spot in the field of sustainable development research. At present, the research on regional sustainable development is still in the research stage at home and abroad. There is no widely accepted method or model for quantitative evaluation and analysis of sustainable development. In this paper, the theory of regional sustainable development and the theory of ecological elements are summarized, and the status quo of sustainable development of Tianjin is analyzed briefly by collecting the basic information of Tianjin. Based on the ecological factors, the DPSIR model and the ecological efficiency DEA model are constructed, and the principal component analysis (PCA) and the data envelopment method are used to calculate the DPSIR model and the ecological efficiency DEA model based on the data of Tianjin from 2001 to 2010. The capacity of sustainable development in Tianjin is evaluated according to the result of calculation. The main research contents include: 1. This paper summarizes the ecological elements, the theory of sustainable development and their evaluation methods, puts forward the concept of ecological elements studied in this paper, and defines the research scope of regional sustainable development in order to determine the research object and focus. The evaluation index system of regional sustainable development at home and abroad is summarized and summarized. On this basis, according to the actual social, economic and resource data of Tianjin during the 15-year period from 1996 to 2010, the present situation of sustainable development in Tianjin is studied and analyzed from the four subsystems of population, society, economy and ecological factors, respectively. Find out its sustainable development of the favorable and negative factors. 2. In this paper, ecological factors are introduced into DPSIR model to construct the evaluation index system of Tianjin low-carbon economy sustainable development, which includes 5 system layers and 31 basic indicators from the point of view of low carbon. Then the principal component analysis method is used to determine the weight of each index in the index system. The comprehensive index value UESDI of sustainable development level of low carbon economy in Tianjin from 2001 to 2010 is calculated by using linear weighting method, and the development grade of low carbon economy in Tianjin is obtained by combining with relevant evaluation criteria. The results show that Tianjin is basically in the development of high carbon economy in recent ten years, and its ability of sustainable development is weak. 3. The ecological elements are introduced into the DEA model, combined with the characteristics of ecological factor efficiency, the environment and the two levels of resources include total energy consumption, total water use, construction land area, total number of people employed and discharge of wastewater. Based on the panel data of 20 provinces and cities in China from 2006 to 2010, the evaluation index system of ecological factors for sustainable development of basic indicators, such as solid waste, is calculated by using C2RX BC2 and SE-DEA model in 20 provinces in China, including Tianjin. The results show that the ecological efficiency of Tianjin is low and its ability of sustainable development is weak.
【学位授予单位】：天津理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X22;F127

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