金融发展对经济增长与产业结构调整的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-21 14:48

本文选题：金融发展 + 经济增长　；参考：《中国地质大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：金融是经济发展的核心,在经济发展中扮演着重要的角色,所以金融与经济发展一直受到国内外学者的广泛关注。自改革开放以来,我国经济发展取得巨大成就,伴随着经济发展,金融业也发生了巨大的变化,金融产品日益丰富,金融机构与金融市场逐步完善,金融已成为政府调控宏观经济及优化社会资源配置的重要手段。而经济发展主要体现在两个方面,一是经济总量的增加,二是经济结构的调整与优化,因此,有不少学者致力于解析金融发展对经济增长与产业结构调整的作用及影响。本研究从金融发展的内涵与测量,金融发展与经济增长的关系以及金融发展与产业结构调整的关系对国内外的相关文献进行了梳理。已有研究尚待进一步完善的地方主要表现在以下几个方面：(1)对区域金融发展的科学测量。已有关于金融发展的文献中,主要侧重于研究金融发展与经济增长等变量之间的关系,而往往忽略金融发展本身的度量问题。(2)已有研究主要是检验金融发展与经济增长、产业结构调整的线性关系。较少探讨金融发展对经济增长与产业结构调整之间的非线性作用。基于此,木研究致力于解决的科学问题是：从省际层面构建金融发展水平的评价指标体系并进行金融发展测度,在此基础上探讨金融发展对经济增长与产业结构调整的作用与影响。通过实证分析,本研究有以下主要结论： (1)构建了区域金融发展水平指标体系,并测度了各省份的金融发展水平。本研究选取了金融相关比率、金融产业比例、保险深度、A股投资者账户数、上市公司数量、金融从业人数、股票市场流动性和政府信贷干预8个指标来反映区域金融发展水平,通过因子分析,将8个指标分为金融深度、金融规模和金融效率三个维度,并根据因子分析的结果确定了区域金融发展指标体系及相应权重。在此基础上,通过模糊C聚类获取指标隶属度矩阵,运用模糊综合评判得到31个省份2004年至2009年的金融发展结果。结果显示,我国大部分地区金融发展处于中等水平。金融发展处于高水平的比较少,主要集中在北京、上海、广东、江苏和浙江5个省份。内蒙古、江西、广西、贵州、青海等省份的金融发展水平一直很低。若按地域进行划分,东部地区整体金融发展水平要高于中部和西部地区,西部地区的金融发展水平处于一个较低的水平。 (2)区域金融发展与经济增长、产业结构调整存在非线性关系。本研究以金融深度、金融规模和金融效率为输入,分别以经济增长、产业结构调整为输出构建RBF神经网络模型,并运用我国31个省份2004年至2009年的数据进行实证分析。通过区域金融发展水平对经济增长与产业结构调整的RBF神经网络模型的训练模拟,结果发现无论是对所有样本、还是分低、中、高金融发展水平样本的训练,RBF神经网络仿真值与真实值之间的误差都达到要求。据此说明,金融深度、金融规模、金融效率与经济增长和产业结构调整存在非线性关系。通过比较RBF神经网络模拟的效果,发现不同的金融发展水平同经济增长与产业结构调整之间的关系存在差异。在高金融发展水平下,神经网络输出值与真实值之间的误差最小,拟合情况最好,说明高金融发展水平对经济增长与产业结构调整的非线性作用越强,非线性关系越明显。 (3)区域金融发展变动对经济增长与产业结构调整会产生影响,且影响方向与程度是动态变化的。本研究通过金融发展对经济增长与产业结构调整的灵敏度分析,发现低、中、高三个水平的金融发展发生变动对经济增长与产业结构调整都会产生一定的影响,但是有的表现为正向作用,有的表现为负向作用。在不同金融发展水平下,金融深度、金融规模以及金融效率变动对经济增长与产业结构调整的影响存在差异,影响程度也是动态变化的。从整体趋势来看,中等金融发展水平下,经济增长与产业结构调整对金融深度、金融规模以及金融效率的变动最为灵敏,其次是低金融发展水平。高金融发展水平下,金融深度、金融规模以及金融效率对经济增长与产业结构调整的作用并不是很强烈。金融深度、金融规模以及金融效率三个因素中,金融深度变动对经济增长与产业结构调整的影响最大,其次是金融规模,金融效率所产生的影响要小一些。本研究是对已有研究的延伸和拓展,与已有研究相比,主要有以下两方面的创新： (1)区域金融发展指标体系的完善与拓展以及区域金融发展水平的测度。本研究从金融发展的内涵出发,结合已有金融发展的测量理论,运用因子分析构建出区域金融发展指标体系。在此基础上,运用模糊C聚类和模糊综合评判法测量出我国各地区金融发展水平。 (2)金融发展对经济增长与产业结构调整影响的非线性检验及灵敏度分析。本研究运用RBF神经网络探讨了金融发展对经济增长和产业结构调整的非线性关系,并通过灵敏度分析探讨了金融发展对经济增长与产业结构调整的影响。
[Abstract]:Finance is the core of economic development, plays an important role in the economic development, so the development of Finance and economy has been widely concerned by scholars at home and abroad. Since the reform and opening up, China has made great achievements in economic development. With the economic development, the financial industry has also undergone tremendous changes, financial products are increasingly rich and financial institutions are becoming more and more abundant. With the gradual improvement of the financial market, finance has become an important means by which the government regulates the macro economy and optimizes the allocation of social resources. The economic development is mainly embodied in two aspects, one is the increase of economic total and the two is the adjustment and optimization of the economic structure. Therefore, many scholars have made a lot of scholars to analyze the economic growth and the industrial structure of the financial development. The effect and effect of adjustment.
From the connotation and measurement of financial development, the relationship between financial development and economic growth as well as the relationship between financial development and industrial structure adjustment, the relevant literature at home and abroad has been combed. The existing research which has yet to be further improved is mainly manifested in the following aspects: (1) the scientific measurement of regional financial development has been concerned. In the literature of financial development, it mainly focuses on the relationship between financial development and economic growth, and often neglects the measurement of financial development itself. (2) the existing research is mainly to test the linear relationship between financial development and economic growth and industrial structure adjustment. Based on this, the scientific problem of wood research is to construct the evaluation index system of the level of financial development from the inter provincial level and measure the financial development. On this basis, the effect and influence of financial development on economic growth and industrial structure adjustment are discussed. To conclude:
(1) the index system of regional financial development level was constructed, and the financial development level of each province was measured. This study selected the financial related ratio, the proportion of the financial industry, the depth of the insurance, the number of A shares, the number of listed companies, the number of financial practitioners, the liquidity of the stock market and the government credit intervention to reflect the regional financial development. Through factor analysis, the 8 indexes are divided into three dimensions of financial depth, financial scale and financial efficiency, and the index system and corresponding weight of regional financial development are determined according to the result of factor analysis. On this basis, the fuzzy C clustering is used to obtain the index membership matrix, and 31 provinces in 2004 are obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The result of financial development in 2009 shows that financial development in most parts of China is at the middle level. Financial development is relatively low, mainly in 5 provinces of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The level of financial development in Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Guizhou, Qinghai and other provinces has been very low. The overall level of financial development in the eastern region is higher than that in the central and western regions, and the level of financial development in the western region is at a relatively low level.
(2) there is a nonlinear relationship between regional financial development and economic growth and industrial structure adjustment. This study takes financial depth, financial scale and financial efficiency as input, and constructs RBF neural network model with economic growth and industrial structure adjustment to output, and uses data from 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2009 to carry out empirical analysis. The training simulation of the RBF neural network model of financial development level on economic growth and industrial structure adjustment shows that the errors between the RBF neural network simulation values and the real values are both required for all samples, low, middle, high financial development samples, and the financial depth, financial scale, finance, and finance. There is a nonlinear relationship between efficiency and economic growth and industrial structure adjustment. By comparing the effects of RBF neural network simulation, it is found that there are differences in the relationship between different financial development levels and economic growth and industrial structure adjustment. In the high financial development level, the error between the output value and the real value of the neural network is the smallest, and the fitting situation is the least. It is best to show that the higher the level of financial development is, the stronger the nonlinear effect of economic growth and industrial structure adjustment is, the more obvious the nonlinear relationship is.
(3) the changes in regional financial development have an impact on economic growth and industrial structure adjustment, and the direction and degree of influence are dynamic. Through the sensitivity analysis of financial development to economic growth and industrial structure adjustment, this study finds that the changes in financial development at the low, middle and high levels have changed both economic growth and industrial structure adjustment. In different financial development levels, the influence of financial depth, financial scale and the change of financial efficiency on economic growth and industrial structure adjustment is different, and the influence degree is also dynamic. From the overall trend, the secondary financial development. Under the level, economic growth and industrial structure adjustment are most sensitive to financial depth, financial scale and financial efficiency, followed by low financial development level. Under the high financial development level, the role of financial depth, financial scale and financial efficiency on economic growth and industrial structure adjustment is not very strong. Financial depth and financial scale Among the three factors of financial efficiency, financial depth changes have the greatest impact on economic growth and industrial structure adjustment, followed by financial scale, and the impact of financial efficiency is smaller.
This research is an extension and expansion of the existing research. Compared with the existing research, it has two main innovations:
(1) the improvement and expansion of the index system of regional financial development and the measurement of the level of regional financial development. Based on the connotation of financial development, combining with the existing measurement theory of financial development and using factor analysis, the index system of regional financial development is constructed. On this basis, the fuzzy C clustering and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are used to measure the system. The level of financial development in all regions of China.
(2) the nonlinear test and sensitivity analysis of the influence of financial development on economic growth and industrial structure adjustment. This study uses RBF neural network to explore the nonlinear relationship between financial development and economic growth and industrial structure adjustment, and probes into the influence of financial development on economic growth and industrial structure adjustment by sensitivity analysis.

【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832;F124

【参考文献】