我国公共科技创新投入对出口贸易与经济增长影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 11:50

本文选题：公共科技创新投入 + 出口贸易　；参考：《华东师范大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：熊彼特在1912年提出创新这一经济学概念,但是在他提出后的前七十年间在中国只有学界对他和创新一词有所了解。虽然,在改革开放之初,小平同志提出“科学技术是第一生产力”,但是长期以来中国一直将投资、消费和出口作为拉动经济增长的“三架马车”。直到2008年的全球金融危机殃及中国经济,政府方深切意识到把科技创新作为经济增长的内生动力才是真正的可持续发展之道。在这一背景下,2012年召开了全国科技创新大会,提出到2020年把我国建设成为创新型国家的目标。但在现实中,政府和企业界仍然没有充分认识科技创新的重要作用,没有理清科技创新对于企业发展、出口贸易以及经济增长之间的深层次逻辑关系。仍存在两种矛盾现象,一方面各级政府将“创新驱动转型发展”反复宣讲,另一方面却很少深入研究如何创新如何转型；一方面都说科技创新很重要,另一方面政府和企业却并不积极主动加大科技创新投入力度。 20世纪80年代以来欧美学者密切关注科技创新与经济增长,建立了比较完整的现代增长理论。但是在已有的理论研究中,重点集中于讨论政府资助解决研发市场失灵的有效性上,较少涉及公共科技创新资金对经济增长直接作用的机制研究,也较少研究公共科技创新支出对出口贸易增长的机制和影响效果。我国学者对科技创新与经济增长的理论研究基本上是对国外理论研究的改进以及借鉴国外实证研究经验的检验,总体上不够系统,这也许是导致我国对科技创新重视不够、理解不透和推进不快的原因之一。当前,我国正处于转型发展的重要战略机遇期,建设创新型国家己成为国家战略之一。所以,从理论角度揭示公共科技创新投入与出口贸易和经济增长内在的联系机制,分析公共科技创新投入促进产出增长的实际作用效果,提出优化我国公共科技创新资金配置和管理的政策建议,紧迫而富有现实意义。因此,本文以公共科技创新投入与出口贸易和经济增长的内在联系机制为研究主题,继承AghionHowitt所建立的新熊彼特主义内生增长模型的主要思想,构建包括公共科技创新投入的内生增长模型,刻画公共科技创新投入对出口贸易和经济增长的作用机制。以我国和上海市的部分投入产出数据做计量分析,研究公共科技创新投入中不同投向、不同来源以及资助企业的不同方式对产出增长的具体影响效果,分析存在的问题,为调整科技创新投入政策提供参考。本文首先构建一个公共科技创新投入促进出口贸易和经济增长的作用机制概念模型,揭示出公共科技创新资金通过降低企业科技创新成本激励企业加大科技创新投入,科技创新成果通过“创造性破坏”发生作用,再通过科技创新及产业化的规模效应、联结效应和网络效应逐级放大最终表现为促进出口贸易和经济增长的乘数作用的全过程作用机理。然后在概念模型的基础上,构建公共科技创新投入内生增长数学模型。通过模型求解和模拟分析发现,高等院校和公共研发部门的人力资本积累和公共研发活动通过影响社会创新而间接影响经济增长；公共科技创新资金支出不同方式或不同来源都对提高经济增长率有正向影响,但正效应存在区别；当公共科技创新资金资助应用研究时,会对企业的科技创新投资产生挤出效应；增加公共科技创新资金总量,或提高其财政支出占比,都有助于经济增长,但由于会挤占社会用于资本积累的资金,这种正效应会随着社会资本积累的减少而不断抵消。经过数学模型推导分析后,本文运用协整理论对数学模型进行检验,使用VAR模型、脉冲响应函数等分析一系列具体的公共科技创新投入产出乘数和影响趋势,研究我国公共科技创新投入对出口贸易和经济增长的实际影响。计量分析分三部分进行,第一部分使用国家公共科技创新投入的不同投向和总量数据对产出增长影响做计量分析,第二部分使用公共科技创新投入的不同级别财政来源数据对产出增长影响做计量分析,第三部分以上海市为例使用公共科技创新投入的不同方式数据对区域产出增长影响做计量分析。计量分析的第一部分证明我国公共科技创新投入总量和不同投向对全社会科技创新的投入都有激励引导作用,对科技创新的产出特别是出口贸易和经济增长有明显乘数作用,并且表现出从局部到整体的乘数放大作用；具体的不同乘数有很大差别,说明对出口贸易和经济增长影响效应不同；公共科技创新资金资助公共研发部门应用研究的乘数作用最大,资助高等院校作用效果次之。计量分析的第二部分证明我国公共科技创新投入不同级别财政来源对全社会科技创新的投入均有激励引导作用,对科技创新的产出特别是出口贸易和经济增长有明显乘数作用,但是具体的不同乘数有很大差别,说明影响效应不同；地方财政科技拨款对产出增长的乘数作用及长期趋势影响不及中央财政科技拨款。计量分析的第三部分证明上海市公共科技创新投入不同方式对全社会科技创新的投入均有激励引导作用,对科技创新的产出特别是出口贸易和经济增长有明显乘数作用,但是具体的不同乘数有很大差别,说明影响效应不同；研发费加计扣除折算补贴额和高新技术企业减免税对出口贸易和经济增长的乘数作用都明显大于财政科技拨款的影响乘数；高新技术企业减免税比研发费加计扣除折算补贴额的影响作用大；三类方式的影响乘数具有局部到整体的逐级放大特点。在国际比较研究部分研究了美国、日本、韩国以公共科技创新投入促进经济增长的历程及经验,分析了部分发达国家以公共科技创新投入促进经济增长的新趋势。研究发现发达国家科技创新具有明显阶段性特征,我国目前还处于起飞阶段,应尽快突破这一阶段；发达国家科技创新投入强度高,我国应不断加大公共科技创新投入水平；发达国家的科技创新投入结构普遍经历了从政府投入占主导到企业投资占主导的转换过程,我国应加快推动相应转变；当前阶段发达国家公共科技创新投入资助重点为基础研究和高等院校,我国应进一步提高资助基础研究和高等院校水平。最后,根据概念模型研究、数学模型模拟、计量分析和国际比较研究的18条研究结论以及带给我们的启示给出综合性的政策建议：优化制度设计,为提高我国公共科技创新投入水平及绩效提供保障；拓宽投入渠道,切实加大我国公共科技创新投入并以之引导提升全社会科技创新投入水平；严格公共科技创新投入资金管理,提升公共科技创新资金促进出口贸易和经济增长绩效水平。本文的创新主要体现在四个方面。一是详尽界定了科技创新、科技创新投入、公共科技创新投入的概念,并与出口贸易和经济增长关联起来。二是构建了一个公共科技创新投入促进出口贸易和经济增长的作用机制概念模型。三是构建了一个包括公共创新投入多变量的四研发部门内生增长模型。四是使用协整理论和脉冲响应分析等检验数学模型,分别计量公共科技创新投入的不同投向、不同来源以及不同方式对产出增长的影响,通过综合比较影响乘数来研究作用效果,分析改进方向。本文在目前阶段就我国公共科技创新投入对出口贸易和经济增长的计量分析是比较完整的,其中以上海市为例将高新技术企业减免税和研发费加计扣除折算补贴额作为公共科技创新投入的不同方式进行计量是首创。
[Abstract]:Inpet put forward the economic concept of innovation in 1912, but in the first seventy years after his proposal, there was only a certain understanding of him and the word innovation in China. Although at the beginning of the reform and opening up, comrade Xiaoping proposed that "science and technology are the first productive forces", but for a long time, investment, consumption and export have been driven in China as a pull. The "three carriage" of economic growth. Until the global financial crisis of 2008 affected the Chinese economy, the government was deeply aware of the real sustainable development of the technological innovation as the endogenous driving force of economic growth. In this context, the National Conference on science and technology innovation was held in 2012, and the construction of China was made an innovation by 2020. In reality, in reality, the government and the business community still do not fully understand the important role of scientific and technological innovation. There are still two contradictions in the deep logical relationship between technological innovation and the development of enterprises, export trade and economic growth. On the one hand, governments at all levels have repeated "innovation driven transformation and development". On the other hand, on the other hand, there is little research on how to innovate. On the one hand, scientific and technological innovation is important, on the other hand, the government and enterprises do not actively increase the investment in scientific and technological innovation.
Since 1980s, European and American scholars have paid close attention to scientific and technological innovation and economic growth, and have established a relatively complete theory of modern growth. However, in the existing theoretical research, the emphasis is focused on the effectiveness of government funding to solve the failure of R & D market, and less on the mechanism of the direct effect of public scientific and technological innovation funds on economic growth. After all, there is little research on the mechanism and effect of public science and technology innovation expenditure on export growth. The theoretical research on scientific and technological innovation and economic growth of Chinese scholars is basically the improvement of foreign theoretical research and the inspection of foreign empirical research experience, which is generally not systematic. This may lead to the heavy innovation of science and technology in China. One of the reasons why we do not understand enough is that we can not understand and advance unhappily.
At present, China is in an important period of strategic opportunity for the transformation and development, and the construction of an innovative country has become one of the national strategies. Therefore, from the theoretical point of view, it reveals the internal mechanism of the investment in public science and technology innovation and the export trade and economic growth, and analyzes the practical effect of the public scientific and technological innovation input to promote the growth of output. The policy recommendations on the allocation and management of public science and technology innovation funds are urgent and practical.
Therefore, this paper, taking the internal linkage mechanism of public science and technology innovation investment and export trade and economic growth as the research theme, inherits the main thought of the endogenous growth model of the Pete doctrine of new bear established by AghionHowitt, constructs an endogenous growth model including the investment of public scientific and technological innovation, and portrays the investment of public scientific and technological innovation to export trade and classics. The mechanism of the action of economic growth. Based on the input-output data of China and Shanghai, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the input and output data of China and the city, and studies the effects of different ways of investment, different sources and the different ways of financing on the growth of output in the innovation investment of public science and technology, and analyses the existing problems, and provides reference for the policy of adjusting and adjusting the investment policy of scientific and technological innovation.
This paper first constructs a conceptual model of the role mechanism of public science and technology innovation to promote export trade and economic growth. It reveals that the public science and technology innovation funds encourage the enterprises to increase the investment in scientific and technological innovation by reducing the cost of scientific and technological innovation, and the achievements of scientific and technological innovation through "creative destruction", and then through technological innovation and innovation. The scale effect of industrialization, the coupling effect and the gradual enlargement of the network effect are finally shown as the whole process mechanism of promoting the multiplier effect of export trade and economic growth.
Then, on the basis of the conceptual model, a mathematical model of endogenous growth of public scientific and technological innovation is constructed. Through model solving and simulation analysis, it is found that the accumulation of human capital and public research and development activities in Institutions of higher learning and public research and development indirectly affect the economic growth by affecting social innovation; the expenditure of public scientific and technological innovation is different. There is a positive effect on increasing the economic growth rate, but there is a difference between the positive effect and the positive effect. When the public science and technology innovation funding is applied, it will bring out the crowding out effect on the investment in scientific and technological innovation of the enterprise; increase the total amount of innovation funds in public science and technology or increase the ratio of its fiscal expenditure, which will contribute to the economic growth, but because it will be squeezed out This positive effect will be offset by the decrease in social capital accumulation, which accounts for the capital used by society for capital accumulation.
After the mathematical model derivation and analysis, this paper uses the cointegration theory to test the mathematical model, uses the VAR model, the impulse response function to analyze a series of specific public scientific and technological innovation Input-Output Multipliers and the influence trend, and studies the actual influence of the public scientific and technological innovation input on the export trade and the economic growth in China. The econometric analysis is divided into three. Part one, the first part uses the different investment of national public scientific and technological innovation investment and the total volume data to measure the impact of output growth. The second part uses the data of different levels of public science and technology innovation investment to measure the impact of output growth, and the third part takes Shanghai as an example to use public science and technology innovation. The impact of different ways of data on regional output growth is quantitatively analyzed.
The first part of the econometric analysis shows that the total amount of investment and the different investment in the public science and technology innovation have an incentive and guidance effect on the investment in the innovation of the whole society. It has an obvious multiplier for the output of scientific and technological innovation, especially the export trade and economic growth, and shows the multiplier amplification from the local to the whole, and the specific multiplicative multiplication. There are significant differences in the number of different effects on export trade and economic growth; public science and technology innovation funds have the greatest contribution to the application of research in public research and development departments, and the effect of funding for institutions of higher learning is the second.
The second part of the econometric analysis shows that the various financial sources of public science and technology innovation in China have an incentive and guidance effect on the investment in scientific and technological innovation of the whole society, and have a significant multiplier effect on the output of scientific and technological innovation, especially the export trade and economic growth, but the specific multiplicative number has a great difference, which shows that the influence effect is different. The effect of local financial technology appropriation on the multiplier effect and long-term trend of output growth is not as good as that of the central government.
The third part of the econometric analysis proves that the different ways of public scientific and technological innovation investment in Shanghai have the incentive and guidance effect on the investment in scientific and technological innovation of the whole society, and there is a significant multiplier for the output of scientific and technological innovation, especially the export trade and economic growth, but the specific multipliers differ greatly, indicating the difference of influence effect and the R & D fee. The multiplier effect on export trade and economic growth is obviously greater than the influence multiplier of the financial scientific and technological allocations; the effect of the tax reduction tax on the high-tech enterprise is larger than that of the R & D allowance, and the three type of influence multiplier has the local to the whole level. Magnification.
In the international comparative study, the course and experience of the United States, Japan and South Korea to promote economic growth with the investment of public science and technology are studied, and the new trend of promoting economic growth by the investment of public science and technology in some developed countries is analyzed. The research finds that the scientific and technological innovation in the developed countries has a distinct stage characteristic, and our country is still at the take-off stage. We should break through this stage as soon as possible; the investment in scientific and technological innovation in developed countries is high and our country should continue to increase the level of investment in public science and technology; the investment structure of scientific and technological innovation in developed countries generally experienced the conversion process leading from government input to enterprise investment, and China should accelerate the corresponding transformation; the current stage will be issued. The national public science and technology innovation investment will be funded by basic research and institutions of higher learning. China should further improve the level of funding for basic research and higher education.
Finally, according to the research of conceptual model, mathematical model simulation, econometric analysis and international comparative research, 18 conclusions and suggestions to us are given comprehensive policy suggestions: optimizing system design to provide protection for improving the level and performance of public scientific and technological innovation in China, widening the investment channels and increasing the public section of our country Technical innovation is invested and guided to improve the level of investment in science and technology innovation in the whole society; the management of public science and technology innovation is strictly invested and the innovation funds of public science and technology are promoted to promote the performance level of export trade and economic growth.
The innovation of this article is mainly embodied in four aspects. First, it defines the concept of scientific and technological innovation, scientific and technological innovation input, and the concept of public scientific and technological innovation input, and is related to export trade and economic growth. Two is a conceptual model of building a mechanism for promoting export trade and economic growth by a public scientific and technological innovation investment. Three is the construction of the model. An endogenous growth model of four R & D department, which includes public innovation input multivariable. Four is the use of cointegration theory and impulse response analysis and other test mathematical models, respectively, to measure the different investment of innovation investment in public science and technology, the influence of different sources and different ways on the growth of output, and study the effect effect through the comprehensive comparison of the multiplier. In this paper, the quantitative analysis of China's public science and technology innovation investment on export trade and economic growth is relatively complete at the present stage. In the case of Shanghai, it is the first to measure the high and new technology enterprises' tax relief and the R & D fee plus deducted allowance amount as the different ways of the public science and technology innovation investment. Create.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F204;F752.62;F124.1

【参考文献】