基于VEC模型的货币供应量与经济增长的适应性分析

发布时间：2018-05-16 11:45

本文选题：经济增长 + 货币供应量　；参考：《河北大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：2012年，我国经济呈现缓慢发展态势，展望2013年，全球不确定因素依然较多，经济复苏仍将缓慢。起源美国席卷全球的金融危机及愈演愈烈的欧债危机都对中国经济产生了不小的冲击。与此同时，国内的经济增长也伴随着严峻的通胀压力，在经济全球化的今天，如何通过相应的货币政策更好的抑制物价，减轻外部冲击对经济增长的不利影响是值得我们仔细考虑的问题。先前很多学者都对货币供应量对经济发展的影响进行过研究，虽然研究方法各不相同，但他们的研究都说明了一点，即货币供应量对宏观经济的平稳运行起着至关重要的作用。基于此，本文将在充分吸收前人研究的基础上，根据中国1978年至2012年数据，进一步探索在经济平稳发展阶段货币供应量与物价水平之间的相互作用，以期找到最适合的货币供应量水平，并期有助于为我国制定宏观经济政策提供理论依据。通过构造经济增长的误差修正模型得知，GDP与货币供应量、消费者价格指数存在长期稳定的关系，并且在短期内，滞后一期的货币供应量增长率与滞后一期的消费者价格指数对当期的经济增长率产生显著的影响。根据经济周期波动的规律和通货膨胀的条件，得到经济增长的适应性条件，即在长期内，货币供应量增长率每变动1个百分点，经济增长会向相反的方向变动1.778个百分点；消费者价格指数每变动1个百分点，经济增长相应的变动3.102个百分点；短期内，滞后两期的经济增长率每变动1%，相应的当期经济增长率会向相反的方向变动0.2761个百分点；滞后一期的货币供应量增长率每变动1%，当期经济增长率相应的变动0.1052个百分点；滞后一期的消费者价格指数每变动1%，当期经济增长率相应的变动0.1090个百分点。同时，，根据近30年的数据，当GDP＇在8%-10%之间，且CPI在2%-4%之间，我们发现：当期M2增长率与滞后一期的M2增长率一般落在0.66-0.99之间。因此可以通过调整货币供应量来达到稳定经济增长的效果。
[Abstract]:In 2012, China's economy showed a slow growth trend, looking ahead to 2013, global uncertainty remains high, the economic recovery will remain slow. The financial crisis that originated from the United States sweeping the world and the increasingly European debt crisis have had a great impact on China's economy. At the same time, domestic economic growth is accompanied by severe inflationary pressures. In today's economic globalization, how to better curb prices through corresponding monetary policies, Mitigating the adverse effects of external shocks on economic growth is a matter worthy of our careful consideration. Many previous scholars have studied the influence of money supply on economic development. Although the research methods are different, their research shows that money supply plays a vital role in the smooth operation of macroeconomic. Based on this, this paper will further explore the interaction between money supply and price level in the stage of stable economic development based on the data from 1978 to 2012 based on the previous studies. In order to find the most suitable level of money supply and to provide theoretical basis for the formulation of macroeconomic policy in China. By constructing the error correction model of economic growth, we know that GDP and money supply, consumer price index have a long-term stable relationship, and in the short term, The growth rate of money supply in the period behind and the consumer price index in the period behind have a significant effect on the economic growth rate in the current period. According to the law of economic cycle fluctuation and the condition of inflation, the adaptive condition of economic growth is obtained, that is, in the long run, the growth rate of money supply changes by 1.778 percentage points with each change of 1 percentage point in the growth rate of money supply. For every 1 percentage point change in the consumer price index, the corresponding change of 3.102 percentage points in economic growth; in the short run, the corresponding economic growth rate will change 0.2761 percentage points in the opposite direction. For every change in the growth rate of money supply in the first period, the corresponding change in the current economic growth rate is 0.1052 percentage points; for each change in the consumer price index in the lag period, the corresponding change in the current economic growth rate is 0.1090 percentage points. At the same time, according to the data of nearly 30 years, when CPI is between 8% and 10%, and CPI is between 2% and 4%, we find that the current M2 growth rate and the delayed M2 growth rate generally fall between 0.66-0.99. Therefore, the effect of stabilizing economic growth can be achieved by adjusting the money supply.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124.1;F822.2

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