我国财政政策与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 09:05

本文选题：财政政策 + 经济增长　；参考：《吉林大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：与货币政策一样财政政策对宏观经济的调节作用也是不容小觑的。改革开放后，根据我国各个历史阶段经济发展的特点，，政府依次采取了与其对应的政策，并都对经济的调节起到了显著效果。尤其在当前经历了2008年金融危机后，我国又再度实施了积极的财政政策，同时还配合以稳健的货币政策，这对经济的复苏起到了积极的促进作用，但当经济回暖后，是否应转变财政政策，如何调节政策等都成了至关重要的问题。由此可见对财政政策和经济增长之间的关系进行研究有着重要理论意义和现实意义。本文主要对财政政策与经济增长之间的关系进行了研究。其中选取的变量中GDP为季度数据，而财政支出，货币供应量和物价指数则为月度数据，在以往的研究中为了构建可估计的同频数据VAR模型，通常的做法是将一些高频的信息进行了舍弃，但不同频率的数据都具有其独有的信息和趋势，所以难免造成估计结果的偏差。在本文中，为了避免这种信息的损失，对可观测到数据进行充分的利用，引入了基于贝叶斯方法的混频向量自回归模型，充分利用了高频信息对财政政策与经济增长间的关系进行研究。同时经过与同频数据估计结果进行比较，证实了混频数据估计的结果要优于同频数据估计的结果，证实了充分使用可获得信息的估计更为有效。同时本文的实证结果还表明GDP冲击会对财政支出造成显著的正向影响，这也就验证了在1996年到2012年间“瓦格纳法则”在我国的是成立的。这说明了随着我国经济的不断发展，我国财政支出也会随之逐步增加，政府在经济中的地位逐步提升；而财政支出的扩张则会对经济增长产生消极的影响。由此可见，在1996年以来，我国的经济状况日趋成熟，若仍长期的实施积极的财政政策非但不能促进经济增长，还会引发通货膨胀和赤字过高导致的财政风险等问题。所以在经济中未发生激变如战争，经济危机或灾害时，政府应当实施稳健的财政政策，以确保经济的长期平稳发展。全文共分四章，在第一章中介绍了选题意义和背景，同时对了西方学者和我国学者关于财政政策与经济增长的若干具有代表性的观点进行了综述。在第二章中，对财政政策与经济增长关系的理论进行了介绍，其中包括瓦格纳法则，内生增长理论中的财政政策，挤出效应和乘数效应以及凯恩斯学派中的财政政策理论。第三章中则对所使用的MF-VAR模型进行了介绍。包括其中的吉布斯抽样等计算方法的介绍。最后，在本文的第4章中，进行了基于混频数据的我国财政政策与经济增长关系的实证研究，具体的验证了我国财政支出与增长之间的关系。并在得出实证结果后，在文章的最后进行了总结并给出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:Like monetary policy, fiscal policy plays an important role in regulating macro-economy. After the reform and opening up, according to the characteristics of economic development in each historical stage of our country, the government has adopted corresponding policies in turn, and has played a remarkable effect on the adjustment of economy. Especially after the current financial crisis of 2008, our country has once again implemented a positive fiscal policy, coupled with a sound monetary policy, which has played a positive role in promoting economic recovery, but when the economy has warmed up, Whether or not fiscal policy should be changed, how to adjust policy has become a crucial issue. Therefore, it has important theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth. This paper mainly studies the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth. Among the selected variables, GDP is the quarterly data, while fiscal expenditure, money supply and price index are monthly data. In previous studies, in order to construct the estimable VAR model of the same frequency data, The usual method is to discard some high-frequency information, but the data of different frequencies all have their own information and trend, so it is inevitable to cause the deviation of the estimation results. In this paper, in order to avoid the loss of this kind of information and make full use of observable data, a mixing vector autoregressive model based on Bayesian method is introduced. The relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth is studied by using high frequency information. At the same time, by comparing with the estimation result of the same frequency data, it is proved that the result of the estimation of the mixing frequency is better than that of the estimation of the same frequency data, and that it is more effective to make full use of the available information. At the same time, the empirical results of this paper also show that the GDP shock will have a significant positive impact on fiscal expenditure, which verifies that Wagner's Law was established in China from 1996 to 2012. This shows that with the continuous development of our economy, our fiscal expenditure will gradually increase, the status of the government in the economy will gradually increase, and the expansion of fiscal expenditure will have a negative impact on economic growth. It can be seen that since 1996, the economic situation of our country has been maturing day by day. If we still implement active fiscal policy for a long time, not only can't promote economic growth, but also will lead to the problems of inflation and fiscal risk caused by excessive deficit. So the government should implement prudent fiscal policy in order to ensure the long-term stable development of the economy when there are no drastic changes such as war, economic crisis or disaster in the economy. The thesis is divided into four chapters. In the first chapter, the significance and background of the topic are introduced, and some representative viewpoints of western scholars and Chinese scholars on fiscal policy and economic growth are summarized. In the second chapter, the theory of the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth is introduced, including Wagner's rule, fiscal policy in endogenous growth theory, crowding-out effect and multiplier effect, and fiscal policy theory in Keynesian school. In the third chapter, the MF-VAR model is introduced. Including the introduction of Gibbs sampling and other calculation methods. Finally, in the fourth chapter of this paper, the empirical research on the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth based on mixed frequency data is carried out, which verifies the relationship between fiscal expenditure and growth in China. At the end of the article, the author summarizes the empirical results and gives some policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124.1;F812.0

【参考文献】