我国交通与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 10:57

本文选题：交通 + 经济增长　；参考：《武汉大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,作为经济与社会发展的重要组成部分,我国交通运输业也得到了迅速发展。国家统计局数据显示,至2010年我国高铁里程数在世界排名第一,高速公路里程数排名第二,铁路里程数排名第三。从改革开放到2010年我国综合交通网络总里程增长了3.4倍,其中公路里程增加4.5倍,铁路里程增加1.8倍,机场数量增加2.2倍。交通系统所能达到的旅客运输量增加了8.7倍,货物运输量增加了5.1倍。我国交通与经济增长的关系究竟如何是本文研究的主要内容。弄清楚我国交通与经济增长之间的关系,有助于未来交通发展战略计划的制定,为经济的进一步增长奠定基础。本文从不同角度来研究我国交通与经济增长的关系,分别采用了不同的方法和模型,并在实证研究中灵活的将时间维度和空间维度相结合,全面而立体的展示我国交通与经济增长关系的时空格局。本文第二章整理归纳了本文实证分析所需的经济学和计量经济学理论基础。根据前人对交通与经济的关系和相互作用的研究成果,归纳总结并形成了交通与经济发展的良性循环图,为解释交通与经济增长的复杂关系奠定了理论基础。本文第三章首先从整体上分析了我国交通与经济增长之间的关系,包括从时间维度上分析各交通变量与我国经济增长的趋势是否一致,从空间范围上来看各地区交通的运量与经济的发达程度是否一致,有何特点。结果显示：我国交通客运量和货运量的增长与经济增长基本同步；公路运输是我国最主要的运输方式,分别占总客运量和总货运量的90%和80%以上,其次为铁路运输,但各个省份的交通结构差异很大；公路运输和铁路运输与我国经济发达水平的空间分布较为一致。我国水运主要从事货物运输,主要分布在沿海口岸、长江和珠江流域；而我国民航主要从事旅客运输,主要分布在我国各大中城市。第三章是从时间和空间上对我国交通与经济增长关系的一个直观展示,近年来我国交通的区域性发展是否平衡,和经济的空间关系又如何呢?这即是第四章的主要研究内容。第四章采用空间重心分析方法,结合2001年和2010年我国地级市的交通和经济数据,研究了我国交通与经济的空间关系,以揭示我国各交通的区域发展的平衡性和与经济的空间相关程度。结果显示：我国各种交通变量均向经济重心靠拢,说明交通与经济的联系更加密切,其中总货运量、铁路客运与经济重心距离较小,较其他变量与经济增长关系更紧密。整体上来说我国经济、公路、水路和民航的区域发展较为均衡,而铁路的重心迁移较大,无论是客运量还是货运量都向西南地方迁移,说明这期间西南地区的铁路运量大为增强,可能是由于西部大开发中西南地区铁路大规模的建设导致铁路供给的增加。前面所做的研究未揭示交通与经济增长的数量关系,本文第五章和第六章内容则采用回归分析方法来揭示其数量关系。第五章研究主要有两个目的,第一是研究交通的经济弹性(即经济增长一个百分点,交通运量增长多少)以及近十年来经济弹性的趋势,第二是研究交通的外部性(即一个地区的交通对周围地区有何影响)。本章所采用的是双对数模型(弹性模型)和我国2001年到2010年省份和地级市的交通和经济数据,并以客货运量为主要研究对象。采用了不同尺度下交通的经济弹性的差异来分析交通的外部性。由于本章所采用的数据存在较多异常值,还采用了MM稳健回归方法来剔除异常值对回归结果的破坏作用。本章研究结果显示：不同尺度下各交通变量的弹性差异较大,时间趋势也不相同。其中总客运量、铁路客运和铁路货运货运有正的外部性,而总货运量、公路货运量和公路客运量有负的外部性。第五章所研究的弹性关系是以经济发展速度为基准的,即研究经济增长快的地方交通增长的快慢,而研究交通与经济增长之间的关系还可以以经济发达水平为基准,即研究经济发达地区的交通增长的快慢问题,该问题即为交通的收敛性。本文第六章建立了交通的收敛性模型,以我国客货运量为研究对象,采用了2001年和2010年地级市的交通和经济数据。由于本章所采用的数据和模型所存在严重的空间相关性,采用普通线性回归拟合会造成较为严重的偏差,故本章用地理加权回归来进行分析。结果显示,地理加权回归比普通线性回归有更好的拟合能力,并能有效解决空间相关性问题。整体上来说,我国交通无论是客运量还是货运量都是收敛的,即欠发达地区交通运量增长的更快。但交通的收敛性有有着明显的地域特征,我国东部地区交通呈现收敛之势,而西部地区则是发散的。本文第七章分析了我国“十五”和“十一五”期间交通发展的成果与不足,并结合本文前面所做的实证分析结果,提出了我国交通运输业发展的建议与设想,包括：我国运输结构仍需要大力调整,提高除公路外的其他运输方式的比重,充分发挥铁路客运和水路货运的优势,分担交通运输压力,并积极发展民航业；实行各种专项交通政策,打造各经济圈和产业链的专项交通,提高经济圈和产业链的运输能力；根据各交通运输的外部性来合理安排发达地区和欠发达地区的各种交通投资,加强交通对经济的带动作用等。本文还对未来交通与经济增长关系研究提出了建议与设想。本文研究从趋势、重心、弹性、外部性以及收敛性等不同角度分析了我国交通与经济增长的关系,将时间和空间维度在分析中有机结合,并采用了较为先进的研究方法,其研究结果可与我国交通发展的实际情况相结合,给我国未来交通建设发展提出建议,具有理论和实践意义。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's transportation industry has also developed rapidly as an important part of the economic and social development. The National Bureau of statistics shows that the number of high speed railway mileages in China ranked first in 2010, the number of mileage ranked second and the railway mileage ranked third. From reform and opening up to 2010 China comprehensive exchange The total mileage of the network increased by 3.4 times, of which the road mileage increased by 4.5 times, the railway mileage increased by 1.8 times, the number of airports increased by 2.2 times. The passenger transport capacity reached by the traffic system increased by 8.7 times and the freight transport volume increased by 5.1 times. How the relationship between traffic and economic growth in China is the main content of this study. The relationship between transportation and economic growth will contribute to the formulation of future transport development strategy plans and lay the foundation for further economic growth.
This paper studies the relationship between China's traffic and economic growth from different angles, uses different methods and models respectively, and combines the time dimension and the spatial dimension flexibly in the empirical study, and shows the spatial and temporal pattern of the relationship between China's traffic and economic growth in a comprehensive and three-dimensional way.
The second chapter of this paper sums up the theoretical basis of economics and econometrics, which is necessary for the empirical analysis of this paper. According to the research results of the relationship and interaction between traffic and economy, a benign circular map of traffic and economic development has been summed up and formed, which lays a theoretical foundation for explaining the complex relationship between traffic and economic growth. The third chapter firstly analyzes the relationship between traffic and economic growth in China, including the analysis of whether the traffic variables are consistent with the trend of economic growth in China from the time dimension. From the spatial scope, the traffic volume in each area is consistent with the economic development degree. The growth of passenger volume and freight volume is basically synchronized with economic growth; highway transportation is the most important mode of transportation in China, accounting for 90% and 80% of the total passenger volume and total cargo volume respectively, followed by railway transportation, but the traffic structure varies greatly in each province; the spatial distribution of highway transportation and railway transportation and the economic developed level of our country China's water transport is mainly engaged in transport of goods, mainly in coastal ports, the Yangtze River and the Pearl River Basin, and civil aviation in China mainly engaged in passenger transport, mainly in China's large and medium cities.
The third chapter is an intuitionistic display of the relationship between traffic and economic growth in China from time and space. In recent years, how is the regional development of traffic in China and the spatial relationship between the economy and the economy? This is the main research content of the fourth chapter. The fourth chapter adopts the method of Spatial Gravity Center analysis, combined with the cities of our country in 2001 and 2010. The spatial relationship between traffic and economy in China is studied in order to reveal the balance of regional development and the degree of spatial correlation with the economy in China. The results show that all kinds of traffic variables in China are close to the economic center of gravity, indicating that the connection between traffic and economy is more close, including the total freight volume, railway passenger transport and the transportation and economy. As a whole, the regional development of China's economy, highways, waterways and civil aviation is more balanced, and the center of gravity of the railway has a greater migration. It is due to the large-scale construction of the southwest railway in the development of the western region, the railway supply has increased.
The previous study did not reveal the quantitative relationship between traffic and economic growth. The fifth and sixth chapters of this paper use regression analysis to reveal the quantitative relationship. The fifth chapter mainly has two purposes. The first is to study the economic resilience of traffic (i.e., one percentage point of economic growth, the increase of traffic volume) and nearly ten years. The trend of economic elasticity, second is the study of the externality of traffic (i.e., the impact of traffic in a region on the surrounding area). This chapter uses the double logarithmic model (elastic model) and the traffic and economic data of China's provinces and cities from 2001 to 2010, and takes the passenger and freight transport as the main research object. The difference of economic elasticity is used to analyze the externality of traffic. Because there are many abnormal values in the data used in this chapter, the MM robust regression method is used to eliminate the damage effect of abnormal values on the regression results. The results show that the difference of the elasticity of each traffic variable is larger and the time trend is different in this chapter. Total passenger volume, railway passenger transport and railway freight transport have positive externalities, while total freight volume, highway freight volume and highway passenger volume have negative externalities.
The elastic relationship studied in the fifth chapter is based on the speed of economic development, that is, to study the fast growth of local traffic in the rapid economic growth, and the study of the relationship between traffic and economic growth can also be based on the level of economic development, that is, to study the fast and slow traffic growth in the developed areas, which is the convergence of traffic. In the sixth chapter, the convergence model of traffic is established. Taking the passenger and freight transport volume as the research object, the traffic and economic data of the cities in 2001 and 2010 are adopted. Because of the serious spatial correlation of the data and models used in this chapter, the general linear regression fitting will cause more serious deviation, so this chapter is used in this chapter. The results show that the geographical weighted regression has better fitting ability than the ordinary linear regression, and can effectively solve the spatial correlation problem. On the whole, the traffic volume and the freight volume are convergent in our country, that is to say, the traffic volume increases faster in the less developed areas. With obvious regional characteristics, traffic in the eastern part of China shows convergence, while the western region is divergent.
The seventh chapter analyzes the achievements and shortcomings of traffic development during the period of "fifteen" and "11th Five-Year" in China, and puts forward some suggestions and ideas for the development of transportation industry in China, including: our transportation structure needs to be adjusted vigorously to improve the proportion of other modes of transportation except highway. Give full play to the advantages of railway passenger transport and waterway freight, share the pressure of transportation and transportation, and actively develop the civil aviation industry, carry out a variety of special traffic policies, create special traffic of the economic circles and industrial chains, improve the transportation capacity of the economic circle and the industrial chain, and arrange the developed and underdeveloped areas rationally according to the externalities of transportation and transportation. All kinds of traffic investment in the area, and strengthen the driving effect of traffic on the economy, etc. This paper also puts forward some suggestions and ideas for the future research on the relationship between traffic and economic growth.
In this paper, the relationship between traffic and economic growth in China is analyzed from different angles, such as trend, center of gravity, elasticity, externality and convergence, and the combination of time and space dimension is organically combined, and more advanced research methods are adopted. The research results can be combined with the actual situation of traffic development in China and provide the future traffic construction in China. It is of theoretical and practical significance to put forward suggestions for development.
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F512.3;F124.1

【参考文献】