基于产业结构调整的河南省低碳情景预测

发布时间：2018-05-19 15:20

本文选题：LEAP + 情景预测　；参考：《河南农业大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自工业革命以后，全球气候变暖已经成为全世界共同面对的环境问题。中国的碳排放和碳减排正日益受到国际社会的高度关注。目前,我国三次产业结构碳排放比例最高的是第二产业,尤其是第二产业中的工业。河南省是全国能耗大省，同时产业结构又以第二产业中的工产业为主。因此，研究产业结构调整下的河南省碳排放及碳减排具有重要的现实意义。在这样的背景之下,通过对国内外研究的学习和能源环境模型的分析,本文采用长期能源替代规划模型LEAP,以河南省碳排放为实证研究对象,应用脱钩理论、环境库兹涅茨曲线理论、灰色关联度模型和碳排放因素分解模型对其加以研究,得出产业结构、能源结构和技术效率等因素对碳排放影响关系与参数,建立河南省的产业结构与碳排放的LEAP模型。结合河南省十二五规划以及中等收入发达国家2000年和2009年的产业结构发展趋势,设定河南省未来产业结构调整、能源结构调整、经济总量发展趋势和人口规模城镇化率的情景参数,通过LEAP模型模拟不同产业部门未来能源消耗和碳排放情况.对模拟情况加以分析,得出河南省未来总体碳排放的四种不同情境即基准情景、低碳情景1、低碳情景2和低碳情景3。通过三种低碳情景下河南省分部门和总体碳排放未来碳减排潜力的分析,得出河南省未来碳减排结论,并对此提出未来河南省低碳经济发展的对策和建议。根据三种低碳情景的计算结果，2030年河南碳排放量将在3.7～4.4亿吨之间，三种低碳情景下的碳排放年均增长为4.6%～5.4%，远远低于1992～2011年期间河南碳排放年均9.03%的增长率。并且，河南有可能在今后18年实现碳排放强度减少45%，低碳情景3中，2013年的碳排放强度为0.81吨/万元，到2030年碳排放强度将减少到0.44吨/万元。低碳情景1中2030年的碳排放量已经达到了4.48亿吨，相对与基准情景已经减少了近3375万吨。低碳情景3中2030年河南的碳排放量较低碳情景1仍可减少将10348万吨，占届时碳排放总量的27%左右。以期通过上述的研究，，为河南省未来碳减排政策分析，探究低碳发展途径与对策提供了理论研究基础，为制定河南省区域低碳经济政策及碳排放预警提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:Since the Industrial Revolution, global warming has become a common environmental problem all over the world. China's carbon emissions and carbon abatement are increasingly being highly concerned by the international community. At present, the secondary industry, especially the industry in the secondary industry, has the highest carbon emission ratio in the tertiary industrial structure in China. Henan Province is a big energy consumption province in China, and the industrial structure is dominated by the industrial industry in the secondary industry. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the carbon emission and carbon emission reduction in Henan Province under the industrial structure adjustment. In this context, through the study of domestic and foreign research and the analysis of energy environment model, this paper adopts the long-term energy alternative planning model, taking Henan Province carbon emissions as the empirical research object, applies decoupling theory. The environmental Kuznets curve theory, grey correlation model and carbon emission factor decomposition model are studied, and the relationship and parameters of industrial structure, energy structure and technical efficiency on carbon emissions are obtained. The LEAP model of industrial structure and carbon emission in Henan Province is established. According to the 12th Five-Year Plan of Henan Province and the development trend of industrial structure in middle-income developed countries in 2000 and 2009, the future industrial structure adjustment and energy structure adjustment of Henan Province have been set up. LEAP model was used to simulate the future energy consumption and carbon emissions of different industrial sectors. By analyzing the simulation situation, four different scenarios of future total carbon emissions in Henan Province were obtained, namely, baseline scenario, low carbon scenario 1, low carbon scenario 2 and low carbon scenario 3. Based on the analysis of the future carbon emission reduction potential of Henan Province in three low carbon scenarios, the conclusion of future carbon emission reduction in Henan Province is drawn, and the countermeasures and suggestions for the future development of low-carbon economy in Henan Province are put forward. According to the calculation results of three low carbon scenarios, the carbon emissions of Henan will be between 3.7 and 440 million tons in 2030. The average annual increase of carbon emissions under the three low carbon scenarios is 4.6% and 5.4%, which is far lower than the average annual growth rate of 9.03% in Henan during 1992-2011. In low carbon scenario 3, the intensity of carbon emission in 2013 is 0.81 tons / 10,000 yuan, and the intensity of carbon emission will be reduced to 0.44 tons / 10,000 yuan by 2030. In low carbon scenario 1, emissions had reached 448 million tonnes by 2030, nearly 33.75 million tonnes less than the baseline scenario. In low carbon scenario 3, Henan's carbon emissions will still be reduced by 103.48 million tons in 2030, accounting for about 27 percent of total carbon emissions by that time. Through the above research, this paper provides a theoretical basis for the analysis of the future carbon emission reduction policy in Henan Province and the exploration of low-carbon development approaches and countermeasures, and provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of regional low-carbon economic policy and early warning of carbon emissions in Henan Province.
【学位授予单位】：河南农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F205;F127;F279.2

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