湖南省人口老龄化对居民消费的影响分析

发布时间：2018-06-23 02:56

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 居民消费　；参考：《湘潭大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：1998年湖南省进入人口老龄化社会以来，湖南省人口老龄化进程快速发展，到2010年湖南省各地级市都已进入人口老龄化阶段且老化系数都高于8%，“五普”、“六普”数据统计湖南省人口老化系数全国排名从第11位上升到第8位，，且都高于全国平均水平。人口老龄化会不会影响湖南居民消费水平？会不会影响湖南居民消费结构？这不仅会关系到湖南省扩大内需战略的实施，经济发展方式的转变及民生的改善，也关系到湖南居民消费结构的优化，产业结构的升级及产业现代化。因此，分析湖南省人口老龄化对居民消费的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文首先深入分析湖南省人口老龄化的现状、特点及成因并预测湖南省老龄化发展趋势，然后全面系统的分析了湖南省人口老龄化对居民消费直接和间接影响机制，在此基础上运用时间序列数据和多元线性回归模型，实证检验湖南省人口年龄结构对居民消费水平的影响，以及运用灰色关联度的分析方法分析城乡居民消费结构与年龄结构变化的关联程度，试图找出湖南省人口老龄化与居民消费水平及结构之间存在的具体关系。通过理论分析和实证检验，本文得出以下结论：（1）湖南省人口老龄化将一定程度降低全省居民消费的整体水平；（2）湖南省人口年龄结构变动对居民消费结构影响显著，城乡老年居民的消费结构也有一定差异，总的来说医疗保健、食品和文教娱乐产品及服务是老年人的三大主要消费品。结合本文分析的结论，本文从收入保障政策、产业政策、生育政策及劳动就业政策等方面提出相关对策建议。本文的创新之处主要是较为系统的研究构建了湖南省人口老龄化对居民消费影响分析框架。
[Abstract]:Since Hunan Province entered the aging society in 1998, the aging process of the population in Hunan Province has developed rapidly. By 2010, all prefectural cities in Hunan Province have entered the stage of population aging and the aging coefficient is higher than 8%. "Liu Pu" statistics show that the population aging coefficient of Hunan Province has risen from 11th to 8th, and is higher than the national average. Will the aging population affect the consumption level of Hunan residents? Will it affect the consumption structure of Hunan residents? This will not only affect the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand in Hunan Province, the transformation of economic development mode and the improvement of people's livelihood, but also the optimization of the consumption structure of Hunan residents, the upgrading of industrial structure and the modernization of industry. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to analyze the effect of population aging on resident consumption in Hunan Province. This paper first analyzes the current situation, characteristics and causes of population aging in Hunan Province, and forecasts the development trend of aging in Hunan Province, and then comprehensively and systematically analyzes the mechanism of direct and indirect influence of population aging on residents' consumption in Hunan Province. On the basis of this, using time series data and multivariate linear regression model, the paper empirically tests the effect of population age structure on consumption level in Hunan Province. This paper also analyzes the correlation degree between the consumption structure of urban and rural residents and the change of age structure by using the method of grey correlation degree, and tries to find out the concrete relationship between the aging population of Hunan Province and the level and structure of resident consumption. Through theoretical analysis and empirical test, this paper draws the following conclusions: (1) the aging of population in Hunan Province will reduce the overall level of residents' consumption to a certain extent; (2) the change of population age structure in Hunan Province has a significant impact on the consumption structure of residents. The consumption structure of the elderly residents in urban and rural areas is also different. In general, medical care, food, cultural and educational entertainment products and services are the three major consumer goods for the elderly. Combined with the conclusion of this paper, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of income security policy, industrial policy, birth policy and labor employment policy. The main innovation of this paper is to systematically study the impact of aging population in Hunan Province on the consumption of residents.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126

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