低碳经济下京津冀发展路径研究

发布时间：2018-11-02 07:14

【摘要】：改革开放以来，虽然我国经济得到了飞速发展，人民物质生活水平得到了极大的提高，综合国力显著增强，但与之相伴的是生态环境的严重破坏，各种环境污染现象层出不穷，大气污染问题尤为突出，最近两年的雾霾天气已经成为生活中的常态。在2013年城市PM2.5污染排名榜上，接近92%的城市的空气PM2.5年均浓度达不到国家标准，高出国家标准一倍以上的城市多达三十二座，而大气污染最严重的前十个城市其年均浓度高出国家标准近两倍。其中有7座城市位于京津冀地区，严重的雾霾天气给京津冀地区的经济发展和人民的健康造成了非常严重的不利影响。究其原因，主要是由于煤炭、石油等化石燃料的大量燃烧以及生产方式、生活方式的不当所致。党中央国务院高度重视环境问题，提出：到2017年，京津冀地区细颗粒物浓度下降25%左右，京津冀空气质量明显好转。《河北省大气污染防治行动计划实施方案》提出，要到2017年实现全省燃煤削减4000万吨，钢铁减产6000万吨，细颗粒物浓度比2012年下降25%以上。北京市政府和天津市政府也都相继提出了各自的“十二五”节能减排计划、具体目标和相应工作方案等政策措施，以全力应对当前的环境污染问题。京津冀位于我国环渤海地区，随着近些年经济的快速发展，该地区逐渐成为我国经济版图中的重要版块，京津冀三地之间的协同发展得到了党中央国务院的高度重视。不过，与全国情况类似，该地区也存在着发展方式粗放、环境破坏严重、增长质量较差的问题。京津冀地区应该抓住机遇，加快调整产业结构，改变粗放的经济增长方式，大力发展低碳经济，最终实现社会和经济的可持续发展。本文在低碳经济的视角下，通过对京津冀低碳经济发展现状的分析，试图找到京津冀地区的发展方向和发展方式。在本文的研究中，首先对低碳经济的相关文献进行了梳理，并依次介绍了低碳经济的理论基础；其次，利用产业经济学原理对京津冀产业结构特点及京津冀能源结构特征进行了研究，并对京津冀的碳排放量进行了计算和分析，，得出了京津冀产业结构偏重、能源结构亟待优化、没有实现碳排放绝对减排的结论；然后，运用KAYA模型对碳排放影响因子进行了相关性分析，找到了影响京津冀碳排放的主要因素；再次，利用EKC理论和脱钩模型对京津冀地区经济增长与碳排放之间的长期趋势和短期波动进行了分析，并得出了京津冀发展低碳经济的紧迫性以及实施调整产业结构等措施的有效性的结论；最后，针对上述分析结果，提出京津冀发展低碳经济的政策建议，探讨了京津冀实现协同发展的重点合作领域。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, although the economy of our country has been developed at full speed, the people's material living standard has been greatly improved, and the comprehensive national strength has been greatly enhanced, but it is accompanied by the serious destruction of the ecological environment and the emergence of various environmental pollution phenomena in endlessly. The problem of air pollution is particularly serious, haze weather has become the norm in the past two years. In the 2013 PM2.5 pollution ranking, nearly 92 percent of cities had annual PM2.5 concentrations below the national standard, with more than 32 cities more than twice the national standard. The top 10 most polluted cities are nearly twice as high as national standards. Seven of the cities are located in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the severe haze weather has caused a very serious adverse impact on the economic development and the health of the people in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This is mainly due to the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum, and improper production and lifestyle. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to environmental issues, and put forward the following: by 2017, the concentration of fine particulates in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will drop by about 25 percent, and the air quality in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will obviously improve. The "Plan of Action for the Prevention and Control of Air pollution in Hebei Province" was proposed. By 2017, coal will be cut by 40 million tons across the province, steel will be cut by 60 million tons, and fine particulate matter concentrations will fall more than 25 percent from 2012. The Beijing Municipal Government and the Tianjin Municipal Government have also put forward their own "12th Five-Year Plan" energy saving and emission reduction plan, specific objectives and corresponding work programs and other policies and measures, in order to fully deal with the current environmental pollution problems. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is located in the Bohai Sea area of our country. With the rapid development of economy in recent years, this area has gradually become an important part of the economic map of our country, and the coordinated development among the three places has been attached great importance to by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. However, similar to the national situation, the region also has extensive development, serious environmental damage, poor growth quality. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should seize the opportunity, speed up the adjustment of industrial structure, change the extensive economic growth mode, vigorously develop low-carbon economy, and finally realize the sustainable development of society and economy. From the perspective of low carbon economy, this paper tries to find out the direction and mode of development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei low carbon economy through the analysis of the present situation of the development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. In this paper, first of all, the related literature on low-carbon economy is combed, and the theoretical basis of low-carbon economy is introduced in turn. Secondly, the industrial structure characteristics and energy structure characteristics of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are studied, and the carbon emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are calculated and analyzed, and it is concluded that the industrial structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is more important than that of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The energy structure needs to be optimized, and there is no conclusion of absolute carbon emission reduction. Then, the KAYA model is used to analyze the correlation of carbon emission factors, and the main factors that affect the carbon emissions of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are found. Thirdly, using EKC theory and decoupling model to analyze the long-term trend and short-term fluctuation between economic growth and carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The urgency of developing low-carbon economy in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the effectiveness of measures such as adjusting industrial structure are obtained. Finally, in view of the above analysis results, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the development of low carbon economy in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and probes into the key areas of cooperation between Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in the realization of coordinated development.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F127

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