科技进步对江苏省经济可持续发展影响研究

发布时间：2018-11-02 15:01

【摘要】：伴随着资源耗竭、环境污染、生态破坏等全球性危机的愈演愈烈,探究依靠科技进步来破解经济发展难题、实现经济可持续发展成为技术经济领域理论研究的热点之一,江苏省委在综合考虑外部环境和内部条件基础上,更明确提出把科技创新驱动战略作为经济社会发展的核心战略。因此,构建科技进步子系统和经济可持续发展子系统的指标体系,在此基础上通过构建计量模型,深入探究科技进步对江苏省经济可持续发展的影响具有重要意义。本研究首先通过对科技进步及经济可持续发展的概念、内涵的界定以及对相关理论和国内外研究文献的梳理,确定了本文研究对象、研究视角和研究方法；随后采用因子分析对科技进步和经济可持续发展初始指标进行筛选优化,构建起最终的指标体系；最后,通过构建不同计量模型实证分析科技进步对经济可持续发展影响的路径和区域差异,并在此基础上提出研究结论和相应的对策建议。在实证部分,本研究首先通过结构方程建模方法分别验证了科技进步对经济可持续发展的直接影响,科技进步环境的调节作用,以及考虑科技投入对科技产出的作用下,科技投入等变量对经济可持续发展影响的直接效应和间接效应。为保证结论的准确性,还分别对上述模型的参数、模型内在质量及拟合优度等指标进行了测算和分析。结果表明：科技进步水平及科技投入水平、科技产出水平的提高均对经济可持续发展具有正向直接显著作用；科技进步环境对科技进步和经济可持续发展同时存在正向直接显著影响,且对科技进步影响作用更大,科技进步环境的调节作用得到验证,同时进一步计算还揭示出科技进步环境和科技进步之间存在着一定的替代关系；科技投入对经济可持续发展影响以直接效应为主,通过影响科技产出再进一步影响经济可持续发展的间接效应较弱,另外,科技产出对经济可持续发展影响的直接效应也较弱。实证部分还通过将区域虚拟变量纳入到科技进步为自变量、经济可持续发展为因变量的回归方程来分析科技进步对经济可持续发展影响的区域差异,研究结果表明：经济发展初始水平(常数项)从高到低分别为苏南地区、苏北地区和苏中地区,且苏南地区远高于苏北和苏中地区；科技进步对经济可持续发展贡献度(斜率)从高到低却依次是苏中地区、苏北地区和苏南地区,说明苏北地区和苏中地区科技进步对经济可持续发展的影响程度更高,但苏南同苏中、苏北的差异是显著的,而苏中和苏北的差异却未能通过显著性检验。
[Abstract]:With the global crisis of resource depletion, environmental pollution, ecological destruction and so on, it has become one of the hotspots of theoretical research in the field of technology and economy to explore and solve the problem of economic development by relying on the progress of science and technology, and to realize the sustainable development of economy. On the basis of comprehensive consideration of external environment and internal conditions, Jiangsu Provincial Party Committee put forward more clearly the strategy of driving science and technology innovation as the core strategy of economic and social development. Therefore, it is of great significance to construct the index system of scientific and technological progress subsystem and economic sustainable development subsystem, and to explore the impact of scientific and technological progress on the sustainable economic development of Jiangsu Province through the construction of econometric model. Firstly, through the definition of scientific and technological progress and economic sustainable development, the definition of connotation and the combing of relevant theories and domestic and foreign research literature, this paper determines the research object, research perspective and research methods. Then factor analysis is used to select and optimize the initial indicators of scientific and technological progress and economic sustainable development, and the final index system is constructed. Finally, by constructing different econometric models, the paper empirically analyzes the path and regional differences of the impact of scientific and technological progress on economic sustainable development, and puts forward the research conclusions and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on this basis. In the empirical part, first of all, through the structural equation modeling method, this study verifies the direct impact of scientific and technological progress on economic sustainable development, the regulatory role of scientific and technological progress environment, and the role of science and technology input on science and technology output. The direct and indirect effects of scientific input and other variables on sustainable economic development. In order to ensure the accuracy of the conclusions, the parameters, internal quality and goodness of fit of the above models are calculated and analyzed respectively. The results show that the level of scientific and technological progress, the level of scientific and technological input, and the level of scientific and technological output have a positive and significant effect on the sustainable development of economy. The environment of scientific and technological progress has a positive direct and significant impact on both the scientific and technological progress and the sustainable development of economy, and has a greater impact on the scientific and technological progress. The regulatory role of the environment of scientific and technological progress has been verified. At the same time, the further calculation also reveals that there is a certain substitution relationship between the environment of scientific and technological progress and the scientific and technological progress. The direct effect of science and technology input on economic sustainable development is mainly direct effect, and the indirect effect of further influence on economic sustainable development is weaker through the influence of science and technology output. In addition, the direct effect of science and technology output on economic sustainable development is also weak. The empirical part also analyzes the regional differences of the impact of scientific and technological progress on economic sustainable development by integrating the regional virtual variables into the independent variables and the economic sustainable development as dependent variables. The results show that the initial level of economic development (constant term) from high to low are the southern Jiangsu area, the northern Jiangsu area and the central Jiangsu region, and the southern Jiangsu area is much higher than the northern and central Jiangsu regions; The contribution degree (slope) of scientific and technological progress to the sustainable development of economy is from high to low, but the order is in the middle of Jiangsu, the north of Jiangsu and the south of Jiangsu, indicating that the impact of scientific and technological progress on the sustainable development of economy is higher in the north of Jiangsu and in the middle of Jiangsu. But the difference between the south of Jiangsu and the middle of Jiangsu and the north of Jiangsu is significant, but the difference between the middle of Jiangsu and the north of Jiangsu fails to pass the significance test.
【学位授予单位】：扬州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127

【参考文献】