区域产业投资策略与区域产业结构趋同:锦标赛机制的视角

发布时间：2018-11-20 20:18

【摘要】：通过对地方官员晋升锦标赛进行建模,分析了各地区产业结构趋同的深层次原因。以经济绩效为主要标准的地方官员晋升选拔机制,直接影响各个互为竞争地区的地方官员的产业投资策略选择,进而导致区域产业结构趋同。模型结果显示,当两地区初始绩效无差异时,产业结构必然趋同。当初始绩效存在差异时,以两地区高利润产业绩效之间相关系数的临界值1/2为分界点:小于等于1/2时,区域产业结构必然趋同;大于1/2时,产业结构是否趋同则受初始绩效差异、高利润产业期望绩效与落后区域比较优势产业绩效差值以及两区域选择高利润产业的绩效相关系数三者间关系的影响。该相关系数可能代表着两区域所投资的同一产业内不同产品间的替代或互补关系。不能仅因产业投资方向上的趋同就认为产业结构存在严重趋同,还需要对产品结构是否趋同进行分析研判。
[Abstract]:By modeling the promotion championship of local officials, the paper analyzes the deep reasons for the convergence of industrial structure in different regions. The promotion and selection mechanism of local officials based on economic performance has a direct impact on the choice of industrial investment strategies of local officials in competing regions and leads to the convergence of regional industrial structure. The results show that the industrial structure will converge when there is no difference in the initial performance between the two regions. When the initial performance is different, take the critical value of correlation coefficient between the two regions as the dividing point: when less than 1 / 2, the regional industrial structure is bound to converge; When the ratio is greater than 1 / 2, the convergence of industrial structure is affected by the difference of initial performance, the difference between the expected performance of high-profit industry and the industrial performance of comparative advantage in backward regions, and the correlation coefficient of performance between the two regions in choosing high-profit industries. The correlation coefficient may represent the substitution or complementary relationship between different products in the same industry invested by the two regions. We should not think that there is a serious convergence of industrial structure just because of the convergence of industrial investment direction, but also need to analyze and judge whether the product structure is convergent or not.
【作者单位】：重庆大学经济与工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年基金项目“动态锦标赛激励效应与机制设计研究”(项目编号:12CJY021,项目负责人:闫威) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“不对称锦标赛环境下代理人拆台行为的实验研究”(项目编号:11YJC790225,项目负责人:闫威) 重庆大学中央高校基本科研业务费科研专项人文社会科学类面上项目“动态锦标赛环境下代理人拆台行为的实验研究”(项目编号:CQDXWL-2013-084,项目负责人:闫威) 重庆大学经济与工商管理学院专业实验室实验教学与实验科研团队建设项目“人力资源管理实验教学与实验研究团队”(项目编号:2013JGSYJX001,项目负责人:闫威)
【分类号】：F121.3

【参考文献】