河南省碳排放与经济增长脱钩弹性分解分析
发布时间：2018-11-28 10:42
【摘要】：河南省位于我国的中部地区,传统上是个农业大省。改革开放以来、尤其是进入新世纪以来,河南省工业经济得到了快速增长,2011年实现工业增加值14402亿元,占GDP的约53%。工业的快速增长也使得能源消耗、尤其是煤炭的消耗量大幅度增加。大量的燃煤会产生大量的碳排放,这就使得河南省近年来万元GDP碳排放远远高于全国的均值。根据国务院《“十二五”控制温室气体排放工作方案》的要求,河南省到2015年单位GDP二氧化碳排放要比2010年下降17%。由此可见,河南省在今后的发展中将面临较大的减排约束,经济快速增长的环境压力进一步增大。鉴于此,深入研究并找出河南省经济增长中阻碍碳排放减少的主要因素并做有效化解,具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。 全文除了第一章即导论外,主要内容包括以下五个部分：第一部分即第二章,这是理论基础部分。在准确界定脱钩、脱钩弹性等核心概念的前提下,在回顾了碳排放与经济增长相互关系理论的基础上,分析了影响脱钩的各种基本因素,重点对碳排放与经济增长脱钩总弹性进行了构成因素分解,即通过加入能源消耗量、工业总产值等变量,将脱钩总弹性分解为减排弹性、节能弹性、价值创造弹性三部分。第二部分即第三、第四章,是对河南省的实证分析。本部分以河南省数据为样本,实证研究了河南省碳排放与经济增长脱钩的三种弹性状况,得出结论：(1)河南省2000-2010年节能效果明显,节能弹性始终是碳排放与经济增长实现脱钩的持续推力。(2)河南省价值创造弹性成为拖累脱钩的主要构成因素,原因是工业尤其是重工业在经济中的比重逐步增大。(3)减排弹性是三种弹性中最不稳定的,总体脱钩弹性的变化与减排弹性的变化有很强的一致性。第三部分即第五章。这一部分基于第二部分关于“河南省价值创造弹性成为拖累脱钩的主要构成因素,原因是工业尤其是重工业在经济中的比重逐步增大”的研究结论,以调节工业结构为目的,构建了DEA模型,引入了非期望产出变量—CO2,并对河南省工业内部的38个分行业做了减排约束下的效率分析,依据效率数值的研究结果,得出河南省今后在调整产业结构、提高效率时,应该做出的选择：一部分产业需要扩大规模以提高效率,如煤炭开采和洗选业等；一部分产业需要改进技术,如金属制造业等；一部分产业需要双管其下,如食品制造业等；还有一部分的产业则需缩减规模,减少投入,如非金属矿物制品业等。因此,河南省在调节工业产业时,要以各产业自身特点为依据,而不能搞一刀切。第四部分即第六章,是对策建议。针对以上研究结论,这里提出了一些河南省实现碳排放与经济增长脱钩,实现减排目标的建议,主要包括：保持节能优势,进一步提高能源利用效率；转变发展方式,调整产业结构,积极发展低耗能、高附加值的战略性新兴产业；把减排作为重中之重,走低碳经济之路；调整工业结构,具体产业具体分析。第五部分即第七章,这是对全文的总结和今后进一步研究的展望。 本文的创新之处是：针对“脱钩”问题的现有研究缺乏对省域经济碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系研究,尤其是缺乏对河南省的相关研究,更没有对工业分行业基于碳排放约束的产出效率的分析,本文在进行理论分析的基础上,首先运用计量模型,分解分析了河南省经济增长与碳排放脱钩弹性状况,并在此基础上对河南省工业行业38个部门做了基于碳排放约束的产出效率研究,并提出了调整工业结构的具体思路和对策建议。
[Abstract]:Henan Province is located in the central region of our country, and is traditionally a large agricultural province. Since the reform and opening-up, especially since the new century, the industrial economy of Henan Province has been growing rapidly. In 2011, the industrial added value is 14402 billion yuan, accounting for about 53% of GDP. The rapid growth of the industry has also led to a significant increase in the consumption of energy, particularly coal. The large amount of coal will produce a large amount of carbon emission, which makes the carbon emission of the GDP in Henan province in recent years far higher than that of the whole country. in accordance with that State Council <"Twelfth Five-Year Plan" The emission of carbon dioxide from Henan to 2015 is 17% lower than in 2010, according to the demand for control of the greenhouse gas emission work plan. It can be seen that in the future development, Henan Province will face great emission reduction constraints, and the environmental pressure of rapid economic growth will be further increased. In view of this, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study and find out the main factors that hinder the reduction of carbon emission in Henan's economic growth. In addition to the introduction of the first chapter, the main contents include the following five parts: the first part is the second chapter, which is the theoretical foundation On the premise of accurate definition of the core concepts such as unhooking and unhooking elasticity, the paper, on the basis of reviewing the relationship between carbon emission and economic growth, analyzes the basic factors that affect the decoupling, and puts emphasis on the composition of the total elasticity of the decoupling between carbon emission and economic growth. The solution, that is, by adding variables such as energy consumption and industrial output value, the total elastic decomposition of the unhooking is the three parts of emission reduction elasticity, energy saving elasticity and value creation. The second part, the third and the fourth chapter, is an empirical study of Henan province. It is concluded that (1) The energy-saving effect of Henan province in 2000-2010 is obvious, and the energy-saving elasticity is always the continuous pushing of the decoupling of carbon emission and economic growth. (2) The elasticity of the value creation in Henan Province is the main component of the drag-off, because the proportion of industry, especially heavy industry, has gradually increased in the economy. (3) The elasticity of the emission reduction is the most unstable in the three kinds of elasticity, and the change of the overall decoupling elasticity is strongly consistent with the change of the emission reduction elasticity. sex. The third part is the fifth This part is based on the research conclusion of the second part on the 鈥淭he elasticity of the value creation in Henan Province is the main component of the drag-off, because the proportion of industry, especially heavy industry, has gradually increased in the economy鈥，
本文编号：2362609
[Abstract]:Henan Province is located in the central region of our country, and is traditionally a large agricultural province. Since the reform and opening-up, especially since the new century, the industrial economy of Henan Province has been growing rapidly. In 2011, the industrial added value is 14402 billion yuan, accounting for about 53% of GDP. The rapid growth of the industry has also led to a significant increase in the consumption of energy, particularly coal. The large amount of coal will produce a large amount of carbon emission, which makes the carbon emission of the GDP in Henan province in recent years far higher than that of the whole country. in accordance with that State Council <"Twelfth Five-Year Plan" The emission of carbon dioxide from Henan to 2015 is 17% lower than in 2010, according to the demand for control of the greenhouse gas emission work plan. It can be seen that in the future development, Henan Province will face great emission reduction constraints, and the environmental pressure of rapid economic growth will be further increased. In view of this, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study and find out the main factors that hinder the reduction of carbon emission in Henan's economic growth. In addition to the introduction of the first chapter, the main contents include the following five parts: the first part is the second chapter, which is the theoretical foundation On the premise of accurate definition of the core concepts such as unhooking and unhooking elasticity, the paper, on the basis of reviewing the relationship between carbon emission and economic growth, analyzes the basic factors that affect the decoupling, and puts emphasis on the composition of the total elasticity of the decoupling between carbon emission and economic growth. The solution, that is, by adding variables such as energy consumption and industrial output value, the total elastic decomposition of the unhooking is the three parts of emission reduction elasticity, energy saving elasticity and value creation. The second part, the third and the fourth chapter, is an empirical study of Henan province. It is concluded that (1) The energy-saving effect of Henan province in 2000-2010 is obvious, and the energy-saving elasticity is always the continuous pushing of the decoupling of carbon emission and economic growth. (2) The elasticity of the value creation in Henan Province is the main component of the drag-off, because the proportion of industry, especially heavy industry, has gradually increased in the economy. (3) The elasticity of the emission reduction is the most unstable in the three kinds of elasticity, and the change of the overall decoupling elasticity is strongly consistent with the change of the emission reduction elasticity. sex. The third part is the fifth This part is based on the research conclusion of the second part on the 鈥淭he elasticity of the value creation in Henan Province is the main component of the drag-off, because the proportion of industry, especially heavy industry, has gradually increased in the economy鈥，
本文编号：2362609
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