基于SD的河北省产业可持续发展问题研究

发布时间：2018-12-07 09:33

【摘要】：可持续发展,是20世纪80年代以来人类认真总结和重新审视自己的经济社会活动与发展行为而提出的一种新的发展思想和发展模式,是人类发展史上的一次思想大革命。区域产业可持续发展基于可持续发展的理论基础及概念体系,是可持续发展思想在区城和产业层次的拓展,具有丰富的内涵和更为明显的实践导向特征。区域产业可持续发展作为一种新的区域产业发展理念,具体化到不同的国家、地区和城市,就各有不同的发展实践形式。就河北省自身经济发展来看,产业结构、人口、资源与环境对产业的可持续发展具有重要的影响作用,针对河北省产业结构尚不均衡、人口压力大、重工业对资源的消耗量大及对环境污染严重等问题的分析,探寻河北省产业可持续发展的路径对于河北省产业的发展具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文以可持续发展理论为导向,以系统动力学为分析方法和研究工具,探索河北省产业可持续发展的新思路,为河北省的产业可持续发展战略提供政策建议的实验室。本文首先对产业发展理论,特别是其中的产业结构优化理论,可持续发展理论,产业可持续发展理论和系统动力学相关原理进行了系统阐述,并且对于国内外关于产业可持续发展的研究成果进行了整理和分析,并且介绍了系统动力学在可持续发展中的广泛应用及其成果,进而形成本文的理论基础和理论依据。其次,通过大量数据的搜集整理和实地考查,对河北省产业发展现状进行分析,得出河北省产业发展过程中存在的不可持续性的问题。本文对河北省三大产业的发展现状进行了详细的总结分析,进而,从三次产业产值构成、三次产业全社会固定资产投资构成和三次产业就业构成三个方面对河北省三次产业结构现状进行了分析,得出河北省三次产业内部及产业之间存在的不均衡发展问题。本文还对河北省人口、资源和环境现状进行了分析,人口基数大、人口老龄化、劳动力素质低下,资源使用效率低、能源消费缺口过大,环境污染严重等问题制约了河北省产业的可持续发展。第三,运用系统动力学的方法,将河北省产业可持续发展系统分解为产业、人口、资源与环境四个子系统,通过影响变量将四个子系统联系起来,通过它们之间的相互影响、相互联系形成整个动态复杂系统。通过各个子系统因果关系图和主要方程初步建立模型,模型通过合理性和有效性检验,模型仿真结果与实际历史数据拟合度较高,说明模型能够较准确地反映产业发展真实情况。最后,文章设定了三种发展方案,分别为：无为方案、产业结构优化方案、产业结构优化+节能环保方案。方案一,遵从系统内部的发展模式,不施加任何外界干扰因素；方案二,通过调整河北省产业结构来改变系统的发展轨迹,这一方案对经济产生了明显的促进效应,但短期效益更为突出；方案三,在方案二的基础上,加大了环保投入和技术投入,此方案产生的经济效益是长期的,符合产业可持续发展的要求。对比分析三种方案的模拟仿真结果,得到最优方案,即为方案三。结合上述分析,提出河北省产业可持续发展的相关政策建议：(1)调整三次产业之间和各产业内部之间的结构,推进产业结构优化升级,促进河北省产业的均衡性发展；(2)提高资源利用率,发展循环经济,综合治理环境污染,保护生态环境,促进河北省产业的可持续性发展；(3)控制人口数量,重视人口结构性问题,大力发展教育,提高劳动力素质,合理调整相关政策,促进河北省产业的综合性发展。
[Abstract]:The sustainable development is a new development thought and development model, which has been put forward by mankind since the 1980 's, and it is a great revolution in the history of human development. The sustainable development of the regional industry is based on the theory foundation and the concept system of the sustainable development, which is the extension of the thought of the sustainable development in the area city and the industrial level, and has rich connotation and more obvious practical guiding characteristics. The sustainable development of the regional industry, as a new concept of regional industrial development, is embodied in different countries, regions and cities, with different forms of development practice. On the basis of the economic development of Hebei, the industrial structure, population, resources and environment have an important influence on the sustainable development of the industry. The analysis of heavy industry's consumption of resources and serious environmental pollution is of great theoretical and practical significance for the development of the industry in Hebei province. This paper, based on the theory of sustainable development, takes the system dynamics as the analytical method and the research tool, and explores the new thought of the sustainable development of the industry in Hebei, and provides a policy suggestion for the sustainable development strategy of the industry in Hebei Province. In this paper, the theory of industrial development, especially the theory of industrial structure optimization, the theory of sustainable development, the theory of sustainable development of industry and the principle of system dynamics, are introduced. The research results of the sustainable development of the industry at home and abroad are summarized and analyzed, and the wide application of the system dynamics in the sustainable development and its results are introduced, and the theoretical foundation and the theory of this paper are also formed. Second, the present situation of the industrial development of Hebei province is analyzed through the collection and arrangement of a large amount of data and the field examination, and the unsustainability of the development of the industrial development in Hebei province is obtained. This paper makes a detailed summary and analysis of the present situation of the three major industries in Hebei Province, and then, from the three industrial output values, the three industrial total social fixed assets investment composition and the three industrial employment constitute three aspects to the three industrial structure present situation of Hebei Province An analysis is made to find out the imbalance between the three industries and the industry in Hebei Province. The paper also analyses the present situation of the population, resources and environment in Hebei province. The population base is large, the population is aging, the quality of the labor force is low, the resource use efficiency is low, the energy consumption gap is too large, the environmental pollution is serious, and the like, the sustainable development of the industry in Hebei Province is restricted Third, using the method of system dynamics, the system of sustainable development of Hebei industry is divided into four sub-systems of industry, population, resources and environment, and the four subsystems are connected through the influence variable, through which The interaction of each other to form the whole motion The model is based on the causality diagram and the main equation of each subsystem. The model is verified by the rationality and validity. The simulation result of the model is higher with the actual historical data, and the model can reflect the development of the industry more accurately. In the end, the article sets up three development plans, which are: no plan, optimization plan of industrial structure, and optimization of industrial structure. "+ Energy-saving and environment-friendly scheme. The scheme 1, according to the development mode inside the system, does not apply any external interference factors; Scheme 2, by adjusting the industrial structure of Hebei Province to change the development track of the system, this scheme has a clear promotion effect on the economy, but the short-term benefit is more In order to highlight the project, and on the basis of the scheme 2, the environmental protection input and the technical investment are increased, and the economic benefit generated by the scheme is long-term, and the compliance industry can The requirements of continuous development. The simulation results of the three schemes are compared and analyzed, and the optimal party is obtained. In combination with the above analysis, the paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions of the sustainable development of the industry in Hebei Province. (1) The structure between the three industries and the inside of each industry is adjusted, the industrial structure optimization and upgrading are promoted, and the balanced development of the industry in Hebei is promoted; (2) improve the utilization rate of the resources, develop the circular economy, comprehensively control the environmental pollution, protect the ecological environment and promote the sustainable development of the industry in the Hebei Province; (3) control the population, attach importance to the structural problems of the population, develop the education vigorously, and improve the quality of the labor force; To adjust the relevant policies and to promote the production of Hebei province
【学位授予单位】：广西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127

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