房地产价格变动对我国居民消费的影响研究

发布时间：2018-12-10 16:13

【摘要】：近年来,房地产价格变动与居民消费之间的关系越来越受到学者和政府部门的关注,这种关注正是由于过去20多年来房地产市场对整个宏观经济的巨大影响。目前我国正处于经济转型的关键时期,国民经济一直处于高速增长阶段,然而居民消费并没有跟上经济增长的步伐。我国居民消费需求乏力问题已经严重制约着我国经济的持续健康发展,成为我国经济发展中日益突出的问题。房地产价格上升对居民消费的影响主要可以分为两个方面：财富效应和挤出效应。而我国房地产市场对消费的作用究竟是财富效应还是挤出效应一直受到各方的关注,因此本文着重研究房地产价格对我国居民消费的影响。本文利用2000-2010年的年度面板数据建立固定效应模型估计房地产价格变动对居民消费的影响,通过对24个大中城市的数据进行实证研究,结果表明：首先,我国房地产市场存在财富效应,而这种财富效应并不十分显著,可以说是微弱的财富效应,同时,不同城市房地产价格变化对居民消费的影响是不同的,而造成这一差异可能受多种因素影响,各个城市的经济发展水平、地理位置、居民购买力以及居民消费心理的不同,都会影响居民的消费行为。其次,收入仍是影响居民消费的首要因素。最后在此基础上提出了相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the relationship between real estate price changes and residents' consumption has attracted more and more attention from scholars and government departments. This concern is precisely due to the huge impact of the real estate market on the whole macro economy in the past 20 years or so. At present, our country is in the key period of economic transformation, the national economy has been in the stage of rapid growth, but residents' consumption has not kept up with the pace of economic growth. The problem of weak consumer demand in China has seriously restricted the sustained and healthy development of our economy, and has become an increasingly prominent problem in the economic development of our country. The impact of rising real estate prices on residents' consumption can be divided into two aspects: wealth effect and crowding out effect. However, whether the effect of real estate market on consumption is wealth effect or crowding-out effect has been concerned by all parties, so this paper focuses on the impact of real estate price on consumption of Chinese residents. This paper uses the annual panel data from 2000 to 2010 to establish a fixed effect model to estimate the impact of real estate price changes on residents' consumption. The empirical study on the data of 24 large and medium-sized cities shows that: first of all, There is a wealth effect in the real estate market of our country, but this kind of wealth effect is not very remarkable, can be said to be the weak wealth effect, at the same time, the influence of the change of the real estate price of different cities on the residents' consumption is different. The difference may be affected by many factors, such as the level of economic development, geographical location, purchasing power of residents and the consumption psychology of residents, all of which will affect the consumption behavior of residents. Next, income is still the primary factor that affects resident consumption. Finally, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward on this basis.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126;F299.23

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