山东省城乡居民消费问题研究

发布时间：2018-12-12 16:03

【摘要】：消费、投资和出口是拉动经济增长的三驾马车。改革开放以来，我国经济体制改革和经济结构转型加快，三驾马车在推进经济发展中的地位和作用日益凸显。受国家政策调整和宏观调控的影响，三驾马车对经济发展的贡献和地位也逐渐发生变化。全球金融危机爆发以来，国际需求结构和产业竞争模式发生重大变化，发达国家普遍喊出了“制造业回归”、“出口替代”等口号，我国的外需环境骤然趋紧。国内有识之士普遍认识到，内需的稳定提升是保持国民经济健康稳步发展的内生决定性因素，必须立足国内市场，，充分挖掘国内需求潜力，扩大国内市场规模。近年来，理论界和实践界进一步将扩大内需、研究国内市场消费结构、挖掘国内消费市场潜力作为研究探索的重点。消费函数模型是研究消费者行为的理论基础，也是研究扩大内需，增强经济自主增长动力的重要手段。在当前有效需求不足的背景下，深入研究消费函数及其特征，有助于我们把握消费者行为，建立符合实际的消费理论。本文首先选取山东省城乡居民消费状况作为研究对象，在综观国内外学者研究成果的基础上，通过查阅、搜集山东省经济发展和城乡居民消费的相关数据，以凯恩斯消费函数模型为基础，根据投资率和消费率之间的关系，将改革开放以来山东省经济发展过程划分为三个阶段，并对各个阶段山东省城乡居民的消费特征进行了详细诠释。在此基础上，结合山东的经济结构、历史背景以及宏观政策变迁等因素，对不同阶段的居民消费进行了分析，针对不同阶段的特点引入相关变量，创建了符合山东省实际情况的消费函数模型。其次，本文对改革开放以来，山东城乡居民边际消费倾向的变化趋势及原因进行深入研究，分析了当前山东省城乡居民消费发展现状，这与我国现阶段不断完善农村社会保障制度、重视提高农村居民收入水平、加快建设社会主义新农村建设、贯彻落实支农富农政策密不可分，同时，本文还进一步详细分析了影响山东省城乡居民消费的制约因素。最后，本文提出了一系列刺激消费的措施，如改善消费结构，提高中低收入群体支付能力，保障和改善社会民生，加快小康社会建设等克服有效需求不足的对策建议，以期为提高全省经济增长的内生动力，促进健康可持续发展提供决策参考。
[Abstract]:Consumption, investment and exports are the troika that drives economic growth. Since the reform and opening up, China's economic system reform and economic structural transformation have been accelerated, and the role of the troika in promoting economic development has become increasingly prominent. Under the influence of national policy adjustment and macro-control, the contribution and status of the troika to economic development have gradually changed. Since the global financial crisis broke out, the structure of international demand and the mode of industrial competition have changed greatly. The developed countries have generally called out the slogans of "manufacturing industry return" and "export substitution", and the external demand environment of our country has suddenly tightened. It is generally recognized that the stable promotion of domestic demand is an endogenous decisive factor to maintain the healthy and steady development of the national economy, and must be based on the domestic market, fully tap the potential of domestic demand, and expand the scale of the domestic market. In recent years, the theoretical and practical circles will further expand domestic demand, study the consumption structure of domestic market, and tap the potential of domestic consumption market as the focus of research. The consumption function model is not only the theoretical basis of the study of consumer behavior, but also an important means to study the expansion of domestic demand and the power of independent economic growth. Under the background of insufficient effective demand, a thorough study of consumption function and its characteristics will help us to grasp consumer behavior and establish a consumption theory that conforms to the reality. This paper first selects Shandong Province urban and rural residents' consumption situation as the research object, on the basis of the domestic and foreign scholars' research results, through the inspection, collects the Shandong Province economic development and the urban and rural residents' consumption related data. Based on the Keynesian consumption function model, according to the relationship between investment rate and consumption rate, the economic development process of Shandong Province since the reform and opening up is divided into three stages. The consumption characteristics of urban and rural residents in Shandong Province are explained in detail. On this basis, combined with the economic structure, historical background and macro-policy changes of Shandong, this paper analyzes the residents' consumption in different stages, and introduces relevant variables according to the characteristics of different stages. The consumption function model which accords with the actual situation of Shandong Province is established. Secondly, this paper makes an in-depth study on the trend and causes of the marginal consumption tendency of Shandong urban and rural residents since the reform and opening up, and analyzes the current situation of the consumption development of urban and rural residents in Shandong Province. This is closely related to the continuous improvement of the rural social security system in our country at the present stage, the importance attached to raising the income level of rural residents, the acceleration of the construction of a new socialist countryside, and the implementation of the policy of supporting agriculture and rich peasants, and at the same time, This article also further analyzes the restricting factors of Shandong Province's urban and rural residents' consumption in detail. Finally, this paper puts forward a series of measures to stimulate consumption, such as improving the consumption structure, improving the ability of middle and low income groups to pay, ensuring and improving the people's livelihood of the society, speeding up the construction of a well-off society, and so on, to overcome the shortage of effective demand. In order to improve the endogenous power of economic growth in the province and promote healthy and sustainable development to provide decision-making reference.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1

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