经济全球化前景与中国抉择

发布时间：2018-12-15 22:05

【摘要】：历史上,经济全球化往往是发展的重要机遇期。谁把握住这个机遇,谁就能够实现"弯道超车"。19世纪后期的美国和德国,20世纪中期的日本和东亚四小龙,90年代以来的中国和印度都处于这个时期。但是,这场金融危机改变了大国博弈策略。如美国短期采用量化宽松和扩大出口,中期推动再工业化、再创新、再就业,长期谋划与发达经济体构建高标准自由贸易区、投资和服务贸易自由化、竞争中性。这将改变经济全球化多边协议性质,转向排他性区域化、保护主义本地化、政治军事集团化,广大发展中国家面临被边缘化的困境。在全球规则变局中,中国如何应对是个大问题。全球化环境仍是重要战略期还是机遇已不再,中国是做一个负责任大国还是被边缘化大国,中国是谋求全面对抗还是开放合作,需要作出选择并制定应对策略。十八届三中全会的"亮剑",是实施超越零和博弈的战略,把握住发展的重要战略机遇期,将全球高标准自由贸易区和规则变局的挑战,转化为全面深化新一轮高水平开放、新一轮高标准改革、新一轮高质量发展的强大动力,把我国建设成为高收入大国、开放大国、贸易强国和全球负责任大国。
[Abstract]:Historically, economic globalization is often an important period of opportunity for development. Anyone who grasps this opportunity will be able to achieve a "bend overtaking." America and Germany in the late 19th century, Japan and the four Little Dragons in East Asia in the middle of the 20th century, and China and India since the 1990s. However, the financial crisis changed the game strategy. For example, the United States uses quantitative easing and export expansion in the short term, promotes re-industrialization, re-innovation, re-employment in the medium term, plans to build a high-standard free-trade zone with developed economies in the long run, liberalizes investment and trade in services, and is competitive. This will change the nature of multilateral agreements in economic globalization and shift to exclusive regionalization, localisation of protectionism, political and military collectivization, and the plight of the vast number of developing countries facing marginalization. China's response to the global rule-changer is a big question. Whether the globalization environment is still an important strategic period or an opportunity is no longer available, whether China is a responsible big country or a marginalized power, and whether China is seeking comprehensive confrontation or open cooperation, needs to make a choice and formulate coping strategies. The "bright sword" of the third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee is to implement the strategy of transcending the zero-sum game, to grasp the important strategic opportunity period for development, and to transform the challenge of the global high-standard free trade area and the change of rules into a new round of opening up at a high level in an all-round way. The new round of high standard reform and the new round of powerful motive force of high quality development have built our country into a high-income country, an open country, a powerful trading country and a responsible big country in the world.
【作者单位】：国家发展改革委学术委员会;
【分类号】：F114.41;F124

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