基于投入产出表的山东省产业关联性研究
发布时间：2018-12-18 16:17
【摘要】：自美国经济学家列昂剔夫创立投入产出表以来,投入产出分析方法、投入产出表及其相应的投入产出模型在全世界范围内得到了广泛的应用,且各国研究学者不断对其进行丰富与完善。我们可以在现有的投入产出表的基础上,用其对国民经济各部门以及各部门之间的相互联系、相互依赖关系进行研究分析,得出各部门在国民经济中的影响力和地位的变化,对产业政策的制定者正确制定相应的产业政策提供较强的指导意义。 本文根据山东省2002年与2007年投入产出表,利用投入产出分析方法,对山东省29个产业部门之间进行产业关联定量分析,为山东省产业结构的升级与产业政策的制定提供参考。 在文章的第三部分,利用投入产出分析技术中的影响力系数、感应度系数分析了山东省29个产业部门的产业波及效应。研究结果表明,山东省农业和传统工业的比重均有所下降,其产业结构正在向高级技术产业和第三产业为主的新型产业结构转变。在各部门对最终需求的变动分析中,利用生产诱发额及其系数,分析各部门的生产对国民经济的生产诱导效应,我们可以看到,在山东省乃至全国,城市居民与农村居民的消费仍存在一定的差距,但随着我国经济的不断发展,两者的消费水平均有了不同程度的提高,对第三产业的消费需求与消费比重在不断的加大。最终需求对国民经济的依赖度系数分析表明,山东省当前经济的增长对投资的依赖性较大,消费拉动所起的作用相对较导弱。国内消费需求的不足强化了经济增长对外的依赖。在文章的第四部门,利用SPSS软件对29个产业部门经济力进行因子分析,根据16个指标对各部门的经济力进行打分,从而确定各部门在山东省国民经济的作用与地位。
[Abstract]:Since the creation of the input-output table by American economist Leon Tiff, input-output analysis methods, input-output tables and their corresponding input-output models have been widely used all over the world. And scholars from all over the world continue to enrich and improve it. On the basis of the existing input-output table, we can use it to study and analyze the interrelation and interdependence of the various sectors of the national economy and to obtain the changes in the influence and position of the various sectors in the national economy. It provides a strong guiding significance for the industrial policy makers to make the corresponding industrial policy correctly. Based on the input-output tables of Shandong Province in 2002 and 2007, this paper makes quantitative analysis of industrial association among 29 industrial departments in Shandong Province by using the input-output analysis method, which provides a reference for upgrading the industrial structure and making industrial policies in Shandong Province. In the third part of the paper, the influence coefficient and the inductance coefficient in the input-output analysis technology are used to analyze the industrial ripple effect of 29 industrial departments in Shandong Province. The results show that the proportion of agriculture and traditional industry in Shandong Province has decreased, and the industrial structure is changing to a new type of industrial structure, which is dominated by advanced technology industry and tertiary industry. In the analysis of the change of final demand in various departments, we can see that in Shandong Province and even in the whole country, we can analyze the effect of production inducement on the national economy by using the production evoked amount and its coefficient. There is still a certain gap between the consumption of urban residents and rural residents, but with the continuous development of our economy, the consumption level of both has been improved in varying degrees, and the consumption demand and consumption proportion of the tertiary industry are constantly increasing. The analysis of the dependence coefficient of the final demand on the national economy shows that the current economic growth of Shandong Province is more dependent on investment, and the effect of consumption pulling is relatively weak. The shortage of domestic consumption demand has strengthened the external dependence of economic growth. In the fourth part of the article, the factor analysis of economic power of 29 industrial departments is carried out by using SPSS software, and the economic power of each department is graded according to 16 indexes, so as to determine the role and status of each department in the national economy of Shandong Province.
【学位授予单位】：青岛科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F223
本文编号：2386103
[Abstract]:Since the creation of the input-output table by American economist Leon Tiff, input-output analysis methods, input-output tables and their corresponding input-output models have been widely used all over the world. And scholars from all over the world continue to enrich and improve it. On the basis of the existing input-output table, we can use it to study and analyze the interrelation and interdependence of the various sectors of the national economy and to obtain the changes in the influence and position of the various sectors in the national economy. It provides a strong guiding significance for the industrial policy makers to make the corresponding industrial policy correctly. Based on the input-output tables of Shandong Province in 2002 and 2007, this paper makes quantitative analysis of industrial association among 29 industrial departments in Shandong Province by using the input-output analysis method, which provides a reference for upgrading the industrial structure and making industrial policies in Shandong Province. In the third part of the paper, the influence coefficient and the inductance coefficient in the input-output analysis technology are used to analyze the industrial ripple effect of 29 industrial departments in Shandong Province. The results show that the proportion of agriculture and traditional industry in Shandong Province has decreased, and the industrial structure is changing to a new type of industrial structure, which is dominated by advanced technology industry and tertiary industry. In the analysis of the change of final demand in various departments, we can see that in Shandong Province and even in the whole country, we can analyze the effect of production inducement on the national economy by using the production evoked amount and its coefficient. There is still a certain gap between the consumption of urban residents and rural residents, but with the continuous development of our economy, the consumption level of both has been improved in varying degrees, and the consumption demand and consumption proportion of the tertiary industry are constantly increasing. The analysis of the dependence coefficient of the final demand on the national economy shows that the current economic growth of Shandong Province is more dependent on investment, and the effect of consumption pulling is relatively weak. The shortage of domestic consumption demand has strengthened the external dependence of economic growth. In the fourth part of the article, the factor analysis of economic power of 29 industrial departments is carried out by using SPSS software, and the economic power of each department is graded according to 16 indexes, so as to determine the role and status of each department in the national economy of Shandong Province.
【学位授予单位】：青岛科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F223
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