利率周期与经济周期的相关性研究
发布时间：2018-12-26 17:51
【摘要】：2008年的金融危机席卷全球，造成许多国家公司、银行等纷纷倒闭，尽管中国采取了强有力的措施来避免金融危机所带来的影响，但也不可避免的遭受了一些损失。中国不断采取调整银行利率政策来保障经济的发展，但应该看到，在中国，利率政策并没有像经济学理论预期的效果明显，因此对利率政策有效性的研究是非常必要的。 为了全面的反映利率周期与经济周期之间的关系，本文对利率、经济周期的概念做出了界定，并简单介绍了部分经典的利率决定理论与经济周期理论。根据通用标准对利率周期和经济周期进行了划分，并进一步详细分析两者之间的关系。得出下面结论：第一，利率周期与经济周期的转折点和持续时间是一致的；第二，利率周期与经济周期波动的幅度大小密切相关较强，扩张和收缩步调基本一致；第三，通过同步性检验，可以看出利率的波动与经济波动基本同步，这就为以下分析提供了方向。 选取银行间市场同业拆借利率和工业增加值增长率作为利率与国内生产总值增长率的代表变量，建立VAR模型，并通过变量间的协整关系检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应以及方差分解来分析这些变量之间的关系。结果表明，利率变动与经济周期波动是正相关的；银行利率波动一直是经济波动的显著性影响因素，但是国内生产总值并不是随着贷款量加大而一直加大，这就要求我们要制定恰当的利率，完善银行利率政策。文章的结尾部分给出了相应的政策建议：提出短期内控制好银行利率是防范经济剧烈波动的主要手段，主张长期内应该改善金融运行环境，建立健全完善的利率政策体系，从而实现国民经济的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:The 2008 financial crisis swept the world, causing many national companies, banks and so on to fail, although China has taken strong measures to avoid the impact of the financial crisis, but also inevitably suffered some losses. China has constantly adopted the adjustment of bank interest rate policy to ensure the economic development, but it should be seen that in China, interest rate policy does not have the expected effect as expected by economic theory, so it is very necessary to study the effectiveness of interest rate policy. In order to fully reflect the relationship between interest rate cycle and economic cycle, this paper defines the concepts of interest rate and economic cycle, and briefly introduces some classical theories of interest rate decision and economic cycle. The interest rate cycle and the business cycle are divided according to the general standard, and the relationship between them is analyzed in detail. The following conclusions are drawn: first, the turning point and duration of the interest rate cycle and the economic cycle are consistent; second, the interest rate cycle is closely related to the amplitude of the fluctuation of the economic cycle, and the pace of expansion and contraction is basically consistent; Thirdly, through synchronism test, we can see that the fluctuation of interest rate is basically synchronized with economic fluctuation, which provides the direction for the following analysis. The interbank lending rate and the growth rate of industrial added value in the interbank market are selected as the representative variables of interest rate and GDP growth rate, and the VAR model is established, and the Granger causality test is obtained through the cointegration test between the variables and the Granger causality test. Impulse response and variance decomposition are used to analyze the relationship between these variables. The results show that the fluctuation of interest rate is positively related to the fluctuation of economic cycle. The fluctuation of bank interest rate is the significant factor of economic fluctuation, but GDP does not always increase with the increase of loan amount, which requires us to make the appropriate interest rate and perfect the bank interest rate policy. At the end of the article, the corresponding policy suggestions are given: to control the bank interest rate in the short term is the main means to prevent the severe economic fluctuation, and to propose that the financial operating environment should be improved and a sound interest rate policy system should be established in the long run. In order to achieve sustainable development of the national economy.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0;F124.8
[Abstract]:The 2008 financial crisis swept the world, causing many national companies, banks and so on to fail, although China has taken strong measures to avoid the impact of the financial crisis, but also inevitably suffered some losses. China has constantly adopted the adjustment of bank interest rate policy to ensure the economic development, but it should be seen that in China, interest rate policy does not have the expected effect as expected by economic theory, so it is very necessary to study the effectiveness of interest rate policy. In order to fully reflect the relationship between interest rate cycle and economic cycle, this paper defines the concepts of interest rate and economic cycle, and briefly introduces some classical theories of interest rate decision and economic cycle. The interest rate cycle and the business cycle are divided according to the general standard, and the relationship between them is analyzed in detail. The following conclusions are drawn: first, the turning point and duration of the interest rate cycle and the economic cycle are consistent; second, the interest rate cycle is closely related to the amplitude of the fluctuation of the economic cycle, and the pace of expansion and contraction is basically consistent; Thirdly, through synchronism test, we can see that the fluctuation of interest rate is basically synchronized with economic fluctuation, which provides the direction for the following analysis. The interbank lending rate and the growth rate of industrial added value in the interbank market are selected as the representative variables of interest rate and GDP growth rate, and the VAR model is established, and the Granger causality test is obtained through the cointegration test between the variables and the Granger causality test. Impulse response and variance decomposition are used to analyze the relationship between these variables. The results show that the fluctuation of interest rate is positively related to the fluctuation of economic cycle. The fluctuation of bank interest rate is the significant factor of economic fluctuation, but GDP does not always increase with the increase of loan amount, which requires us to make the appropriate interest rate and perfect the bank interest rate policy. At the end of the article, the corresponding policy suggestions are given: to control the bank interest rate in the short term is the main means to prevent the severe economic fluctuation, and to propose that the financial operating environment should be improved and a sound interest rate policy system should be established in the long run. In order to achieve sustainable development of the national economy.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0;F124.8
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 伍聪;;负利率与中国经济增长的关系研究[J];福建论坛(人文社会科学版);2013年01期
2 陈宁,安帮勇;利率理论与中国利率体制改革[J];江汉论坛;2004年04期
3 胡少东;李非;;台湾经济结构突变、周期波动和经济增长[J];世界经济研究;2010年03期
4 邓q，
本文编号：2392474
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/zhongguojingjilunwen/2392474.html
