辽宁沿海开放对经济增长影响实证研究

发布时间：2018-12-27 13:45

【摘要】：由于区域经济具有异质性,区域要素禀赋具有先天性与外生性,不同区域的对外开放对经济的影响具有其独特性。因此,系统研究辽宁沿海经济带的对外开放及经济增长问题具有重要的现实意义。文章的主要创新工作如下：第一,对外开放影响区域经济发展的原理、作用机制及政策支持。文章着重从资源与要素的优化配置、资本技术外溢和市场竞争力改善等方面进行综合分析,揭示区域经济发展的原理与作用机制。根据对外开放的作用机制与原理,将对外开放细分为资本开放度、贸易开放度、劳动开放度及综合开放度,并对不同开放度的测度方法进行了研究。第二,辽宁沿海的对外开放度的量化与测度。在开放度量化测度的基础上,借助主成分分析法及灰色关联度方法对辽宁沿海经济带的对外开放现状进行定量分析。第三,辽宁沿海经济带开放度对区域经济增长的影响研究。采用两种建模策略分别进行实证研究,一是基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的结构建模策略,二是基于数据统计特征与相关关系的非结构建模。基于以上策略,分别构建面板数据模型(panel data model)及向量自回归模型(VAR),前者克服了样本数量少、参数估计误差较大的缺陷,而后者则便于考察经济增长对于开放度变化的敏感性及动态变化的时变路径,其中的脉冲响应分析为两者之间的互动关系提供了实证依据。第四,研究沿海经济带各地区经济增长与开放度之间互相预测机制。通过方差分解,研究了不同地区对外开放度与经济增长的波动在多大程度上可以由对方来解释。大连与营口的经济波动可以由对外开放度波动解释中,而对外开放度的也可以由经济波动来解释。大连与营口的对外开放、经济之间具有相互预测机制。第五,模拟和仿真微观市场主体影响对外开放的行为与机制。在确立对外开放影响经济增长的基础上,通过基于Agent的模拟与仿真技术进一步研究影响开放度的微观主体行为。对政府Agent及企业Agent进行界定,通过一级假设(两个)与二级假设条件(六个)刻画两个主体的行为特征,并构建逻辑模型进行研究。第六,提高对外开放水平及增强经济发展可持续性。发挥人力资本优势、发展产业集群、建设区域金融中心、改革财政税收制度、加强基础设施建设、整合产业园区资源、降低产业同构性、实施有序开放可以有效提高辽宁沿海经济带国际竞争力。
[Abstract]:Because of the heterogeneity of regional economy, regional factor endowment is innate and exogenetic, and the influence of opening to the outside world in different regions on economy is unique. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the opening-up and economic growth of Liaoning coastal economic belt. The main innovative work of this paper is as follows: first, the principle, mechanism and policy support of opening to the outside world affect the development of regional economy. This paper focuses on the comprehensive analysis of the optimal allocation of resources and elements, capital technology spillover and the improvement of market competitiveness, in order to reveal the principle and mechanism of regional economic development. According to the mechanism and principle of opening to the outside world, the opening to the outside world is divided into capital openness, trade openness, labor openness and comprehensive openness. Second, Liaoning coastal opening-up degree of quantification and measurement. On the basis of quantitative measurement of opening degree, the present situation of opening to the outside world of Liaoning coastal economic belt is analyzed quantitatively by means of principal component analysis method and grey correlation degree method. Third, the influence of the opening degree of Liaoning coastal economic belt on regional economic growth. Two modeling strategies are used for empirical research. One is the structural modeling strategy based on Cobb-Douglas production function and the other is the unstructured modeling based on the statistical characteristics and correlation. Based on the above strategies, the panel data model (panel data model) and the vector autoregressive model (VAR),) are constructed respectively. The former overcomes the defects of small sample size and large error in parameter estimation. The latter is convenient to examine the sensitivity of economic growth to the change of openness and the time-varying path of dynamic change. The impulse response analysis provides an empirical basis for the interaction between the two. Fourth, to study the economic growth and openness of the coastal economic belt between the mutual prediction mechanism. Based on variance decomposition, this paper studies the extent to which the fluctuation of the degree of opening to the outside world and economic growth in different regions can be explained by the other side. The economic fluctuation of Dalian and Yingkou can be explained by the fluctuation of the degree of opening to the outside world, and the degree of opening to the outside world can also be explained by the fluctuation of economy. Dalian and Yingkou open to the outside world, the economy has a mutual prediction mechanism. Fifth, simulate and simulate the behavior and mechanism of micro-market agents influencing the opening-up. On the basis of establishing that the opening to the outside world affects the economic growth, the microcosmic behavior of the main body which affects the openness is further studied through the simulation and simulation technology based on Agent. The government Agent and enterprise Agent are defined. The behavioral characteristics of the two subjects are characterized by the first-order hypothesis (two) and the second-order hypothesis (six), and the logical model is constructed. Sixth, raise the level of opening to the outside world and enhance the sustainability of economic development. To give full play to the advantages of human capital, to develop industrial clusters, to build regional financial centers, to reform the financial and tax system, to strengthen infrastructure construction, to integrate the resources of industrial parks, and to reduce the industrial isomorphism. The implementation of orderly opening can effectively improve the international competitiveness of Liaoning coastal economic belt.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁工程技术大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F224

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