“产能过剩”的误区——产能利用率及产能过剩的进展、争议及现实判断

发布时间：2018-12-31 13:23

【摘要】："产能过剩"存在着很多似是而非的争议,而中国存在着"产能过剩的顽疾",越治理越严重。但在国际层面和学术研究层面,产能利用率更为科学,对产能过剩并没有太多的关注;在界定和具体的统计上,产能利用率较产能过剩更为客观,数据的充实使得产能利用率统计得到了改善;在产能过剩产生原因上,主要侧重厂商竞争博弈等微观形成机制;从经验事实看,"长期产能过剩"表明产能利用率通常不会特别高;对于产能利用率,更多的作用是宏观景气的预警功能。我们的观点是,第一,中国的产能过剩问题首先要解决的是恰当的测度和较为可信的统计数据,现有的数据存在问题;第二,目前产能过剩问题被过度强调了,存在着扭曲的可能;第三,在形成原因上,主要是宏观需求冲击、政府政策扭曲、国有企业的利益机制等因素的共同作用;第四,需回归产能利用率的预警功能;第五,当前化解产能过剩的政策难以有效实施,执行者并没有充足的激励,约束机制也不强;第六,化解产能过剩的方式上,更多地需要健全价格和利益机制,构建市场化发展模式和监督体系。
[Abstract]:There are many specious controversies about overcapacity, while China has a chronic problem of overcapacity that is getting worse. However, at the international level and academic research level, capacity utilization rate is more scientific, there is not much attention to overcapacity; In terms of definition and specific statistics, capacity utilization ratio is more objective than overcapacity, and the statistics of capacity utilization rate is improved by data enrichment. From the empirical point of view, "long-term overcapacity" shows that capacity utilization is usually not particularly high; for capacity utilization, it is more of a macro boom warning function. Our point of view is that, first, the problem of overcapacity in China must be solved first of all is the appropriate measurement and more reliable statistical data, the existing data have problems; Second, the problem of overcapacity has been overemphasized at present, there is a possibility of distortion; third, in the formation of the reasons, mainly macro-demand impact, government policy distortion, state-owned enterprise interest mechanism and other factors of the joint action; Fourth, need to return to the early warning function of capacity utilization; fifth, the current policy to resolve overcapacity is difficult to be effectively implemented, the executor does not have sufficient incentives, and the restraint mechanism is not strong; Sixth, to resolve overcapacity, we need to perfect the mechanism of price and benefit, and construct market-oriented development model and supervision system.
【作者单位】：中国社科院财经战略研究院;华中科技大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点课题(13AZD073) 教育部留学归国人员基金(2012)资助
【分类号】：F124

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