欧债危机对中国经济的影响分析

发布时间：2019-01-01 21:27

【摘要】：在经受了由美国次贷危机引爆的全球金融危机后,通过各国政府政策协调与努力,世界经济重新走向正轨,使2009年世界经济有了复苏的迹象,但希腊主权债务危机的爆发再一次把世界经济拖入深渊。欧债危机是2008年金融危机的延续和深化,是继2008年金融危机之后,影响世界经济走向的最重要因素,同时也是自欧元诞生14年以来所遭遇的最严重危机。自希腊主权债务危机爆发以来,危机已迅速蔓延到爱尔兰、葡萄牙、西班牙以及意大利等国,且形势比较严峻。危机严重打击了全球投资者的信心,全球股市剧烈波动,世界经济再次被欧债危机的阴云所笼罩,全球经济存在“二次探底”的可能。欧盟作为我国第一大贸易伙伴、最大的出口市场、第一大技术引进地、重要的外商直接投资地及第二大进口市场,因此欧盟的经济运行状况会直接影响到我国经济的正常运行以及中欧经贸关系。在欧债危机的前景尚不明朗的背景下,方面,密切关注欧债危机的发展动态,另一方面,积极采取措施把欧债危机所造成的危机最小化,充分利用危机所带来的机遇。探讨欧债危机爆发的原因以及对我国经济的影响,对于我国政府以后防范债务危机问题上,具有重要的理论意义和运用价值。文章主要采用实证分析结合规范分析的方法进行论述。通过历史的视角来对欧元区债务危机的形成及演变进行归纳总结,通过对现有的文献资料进行深入的分析,进一步构建成欧债危机的架构机制。接下来利用图表、数据,结合数量模型对欧元区主权债务危机对我国经济的影响进行实证分析,得出此次欧债危机对我国出口影响最大的因素是欧元区国民收入增长速度。最后,利用规范分析的方法提出了相应的应对措施和建议,总结出了我国在推进东亚区域货币一体化以及加强地方政府债务管理等方面的经验和启示。
[Abstract]:After experiencing the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, through the coordination and efforts of the governments of various countries, the world economy is back on the right track, giving the world economy signs of recovery in 2009. But the outbreak of Greece's sovereign debt crisis has once again dragged the world economy into the abyss. The European debt crisis is the continuation and deepening of the financial crisis in 2008. It is the most important factor influencing the world economic trend after the financial crisis of 2008. It is also the most serious crisis encountered by the euro since the birth of the euro 14 years ago. Since the Greek sovereign debt crisis broke out, the crisis has spread rapidly to Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy, and the situation is relatively serious. The crisis has dealt a severe blow to the confidence of global investors, global stock markets are volatile, the world economy is once again clouded by the European debt crisis, the global economy has the possibility of a "double-dip". As our country's largest trading partner, the largest export market, the largest technology import area, the important place of foreign direct investment and the second largest import market, Therefore, the economic operation of the EU will directly affect the normal operation of China's economy and China-EU economic and trade relations. Under the background that the prospect of European debt crisis is not clear, we should pay close attention to the development trend of European debt crisis. On the other hand, we should take active measures to minimize the crisis caused by European debt crisis and make full use of the opportunity brought by it. It is of great theoretical significance and practical value to probe into the causes of the European debt crisis and its influence on our country's economy, which is of great theoretical significance and practical value for our government to prevent the debt crisis in the future. The article mainly uses the empirical analysis combined with the normative analysis method to discuss. The formation and evolution of the euro zone debt crisis are summarized from the perspective of history, and the structure mechanism of the European debt crisis is further constructed through the in-depth analysis of the existing literature. Then the paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis on China's economy by means of charts, data and quantitative models, and concludes that the most important factor affecting China's exports is the growth rate of national income in the euro zone. Finally, the paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions by using the method of normative analysis, and summarizes the experience and enlightenment of our country in promoting the regional monetary integration in East Asia and strengthening the management of local government debt.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1;F815

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