中国经济周期波动与固定资产投资关系研究
发布时间：2019-01-07 09:14
【摘要】：经济周期理论是宏观经济研究中的一个重要组成部分。改革开放以来，中国经济是在一个又一个周期波动中发展的。影响经济波动的因素有很多，其中固定资产投资的波动发挥着重要作用。因此，研究我国经济周期与固定资产投资的关系具有很重要的现实意义。 本文从历史的角度对改革开放以来我国经济周期波动及各阶段中固定资产投资概况进行了阐述、分析，并选取1978—2011年的国民经济统计数据对上述两项进行实证研究。研究表明长期以来我国经济周期波动与固定资产投资存在着长期稳定的均衡关系和短期内的动态均衡机制。此外，通过VAR模型，本文刻画了固定资产投资冲击对经济波动的作用大小和时间轨迹。同时，为监控固定资产投资从而平抑经济波动，，文章通过主成分分析法筛选了5个固定资产投资先行指标，并建立了其先行合成指数。文章最后一章提出了促进经济与固定资产投资的良性互动，实现经济持续稳定增长的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Business cycle theory is an important part of macroeconomic research. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy is in one cycle after another in the development of fluctuations. There are many factors that affect economic fluctuation, among which the fluctuation of fixed assets investment plays an important role. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between economic cycle and fixed asset investment in China. From the historical point of view, this paper expounds the fluctuation of China's economic cycle and fixed asset investment in various stages since the reform and opening up, analyzes the situation, and selects the national economic statistical data from 1978 to 2011 to carry on the empirical research on the above two items. The study shows that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship and a short-term dynamic equilibrium mechanism between the economic cycle fluctuation and fixed asset investment in China for a long time. In addition, through the VAR model, this paper describes the impact of fixed asset investment on economic fluctuations and the time track. At the same time, in order to monitor the fixed asset investment and stabilize the economic fluctuation, this paper selects five leading indexes of fixed asset investment by principal component analysis, and establishes its antecedent composite index. In the last chapter, some policy suggestions are put forward to promote the positive interaction between economy and fixed assets investment and to realize the sustained and stable economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.8
本文编号：2403490
[Abstract]:Business cycle theory is an important part of macroeconomic research. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy is in one cycle after another in the development of fluctuations. There are many factors that affect economic fluctuation, among which the fluctuation of fixed assets investment plays an important role. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between economic cycle and fixed asset investment in China. From the historical point of view, this paper expounds the fluctuation of China's economic cycle and fixed asset investment in various stages since the reform and opening up, analyzes the situation, and selects the national economic statistical data from 1978 to 2011 to carry on the empirical research on the above two items. The study shows that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship and a short-term dynamic equilibrium mechanism between the economic cycle fluctuation and fixed asset investment in China for a long time. In addition, through the VAR model, this paper describes the impact of fixed asset investment on economic fluctuations and the time track. At the same time, in order to monitor the fixed asset investment and stabilize the economic fluctuation, this paper selects five leading indexes of fixed asset investment by principal component analysis, and establishes its antecedent composite index. In the last chapter, some policy suggestions are put forward to promote the positive interaction between economy and fixed assets investment and to realize the sustained and stable economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.8
【引证文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 杜晶;固定资产投资周期和经济周期关系的实证研究[D];东北财经大学;2015年
本文编号：2403490
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