云南省城镇化与经济发展关系研究报告

发布时间：2019-01-14 12:02

【摘要】：“城镇化”被中央提上发展议程可以从第十五届中央委员第五次会议追溯起，会议上正式通过了我国第十个五年计划的文件。文件中指出要“积极妥善地推进城镇化”。在之后各种文件与报告中“城镇化”一词的应用频率日益增长，，可见中央对于城镇化的重视一日更甚一日。2012年，李克强同志多次阐释“城镇化”释放内需的潜力、拉动经济的机理，强调了“城镇化”蕴含着将来经济增长不可估量的动力。十八大报告还明确指出城镇化是推进经济结构战略性调整、加快转变经济发展方式的重点。在这样的大背景之下，云南省城镇化也是政府工作的重点之一，但云南省发展城镇化多年以来，由于地形复杂、民族众多等自然与人文因素，发展成效不是特别突出，从2000年以来，云南省的城镇化率都一直处于我国的低水平行列。因此，深入了解云南省城镇化和经济发展的关系，发现云南省城镇化进程中的问题，并寻求解决之道对云南省城镇化发展具有深刻的理论与现实意义。本文除引言外共分四个部分。第一部分首先介绍了城镇化的内涵和我国城镇化的发展历程，并从自然环境、人口状况、经济发展状况以及历史等方面来定位云南省的城镇化发展程度。第二部分，研究了云南省城镇化和经济发展的量化关系，文章运用协整分析方法以考察两者之间的长期均衡关系，通过建立误差修正模型，以说明云南省城镇化和经济增长之间的短期波动特征。文章还通过格兰杰因果检验发现，1985年以来云南省的经济发展是促进城镇化进程的动力，但城镇化进程对云南省经济发展的作用不显著。第三部分，运用比较分析方法，将云南省的城镇化进程和我国西南部其他三省：四川、广西和贵州作横向比较，并逐一分析云南省的城镇化程度相对落后的原因。第四部分为结论部分，文章针对云南省城镇化存在的一些问题给出了相应的政策建议。城镇化不仅仅是经济发展的需要，是经济转型过程中的重要工具，更是社会各方面改革和进步的“润滑剂”。正如李克强总理所说的，“近10亿人的城镇化，在人类历史上是没有的，中国这条路走好了，不仅造福中国人民，对世界也是贡献。”
[Abstract]:The development agenda of "urbanization" can be traced back to the Fifth meeting of the 15th CPC Central Committee, at which the documents of China's 10th Five-Year Plan were formally adopted. The document pointed out the need to "actively and properly promote urbanization." Since then, the use of the word "urbanization" in various documents and reports has been increasing day by day. It can be seen that the central authorities attach more importance to urbanization every day. In 2012, Comrade Li Keqiang repeatedly explained the potential of "urbanization" to release domestic demand. The mechanism of stimulating economy emphasizes that urbanization contains inestimable power of economic growth in the future. The report also pointed out that urbanization is the key to promote the strategic adjustment of economic structure and accelerate the transformation of economic development mode. Under such a background, urbanization in Yunnan Province is also one of the key tasks of the government. However, since the development of urbanization in Yunnan Province for many years, due to natural and human factors such as complex terrain, numerous nationalities, and other natural and cultural factors, the development results have not been particularly outstanding. Since 2000, the urbanization rate of Yunnan Province has been in the low level of our country. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to understand the relationship between urbanization and economic development in Yunnan Province, to find out the problems in the process of urbanization in Yunnan Province, and to seek solutions for the development of urbanization in Yunnan Province. In addition to the introduction, this paper is divided into four parts. The first part introduces the connotation of urbanization and the development course of urbanization in China, and determines the development degree of urbanization in Yunnan Province from the aspects of natural environment, population, economic development and history. In the second part, the quantitative relationship between urbanization and economic development in Yunnan Province is studied. The paper uses cointegration analysis to investigate the long-term equilibrium relationship between the two, and establishes an error correction model. To illustrate the short-term fluctuations between urbanization and economic growth in Yunnan Province. Through Granger causality test, it is found that the economic development of Yunnan Province is the driving force to promote the urbanization process since 1985, but the effect of urbanization process on the economic development of Yunnan Province is not significant. In the third part, the process of urbanization in Yunnan Province is compared with the other three provinces in southwest China: Sichuan, Guangxi and Guizhou, and the reasons why the urbanization degree of Yunnan Province is relatively backward are analyzed one by one. The fourth part is the conclusion part, the article gives the corresponding policy suggestion in view of some problems of urbanization in Yunnan Province. Urbanization is not only the need of economic development, but also an important tool in the process of economic transformation. As Premier Li Keqiang put it, "the urbanization of nearly 1 billion people has not been in the history of mankind. China has taken a good road, not only for the benefit of the Chinese people, but also for the world."
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F299.2;F127

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