我国城乡居民消费、政府消费对经济增长的影响

发布时间：2019-02-15 00:49

【摘要】：本文旨在研究改革开放以来我国消费对经济增长的影响。因为我国鲜明的城乡二元经济结构模式使得我国城镇居民消费和农村居民消费之间存在巨大的差别,所以可将我国总消费划分为城镇居民消费、农村居民消费和政府消费三大部分,研究和比较各部分消费支出对经济经济增长的影响。本文主要分为理论和实证分析两部分。首先从理论上借鉴发展经济学理论中的发展阶段论分析三大消费对经济增长的影响；然后实证上采用由支出法统计的1978-2011年GDP和三大消费支出数据,研究我国三大消费支出对经济增长的影响,以揭示我国消费对经济增长作用的现状。在此基础上,将我国的现状与理论分析结合,建议加强消费对经济增长拉动作用时,对于不同的消费应该区别对待,采取不同的对策。在理论分析上,论文依据发展经济学理论中的发展阶段论分析三大消费对经济增长的影响。首先,借鉴罗斯托对经济成长阶段的划分,将一国经济由起步发展到高水平这一过程划分为开始发展阶段、快速发展阶段、向成熟推进阶段和成熟阶段四个阶段。在不同的发展阶段,政府消费支出、城乡居民消费支出对经济增长的影响不同。其次,分析了政府消费支出对经济增长的“挤入”效应和“挤出”效应,两种效应的相对强弱决定了政府消费支出对经济增长的总体效应；在整个经济发展过程中,政府消费支出对经济增长的作用经历了类似“倒U”形的轨迹。最后,分析了城乡居民消费对经济增长作用的差异,以及在整个经济发展过程中,这一差异的变动；发现随着经济的发展,这一差异由小到大,最终由于二元经济结构的逐渐消失而变小和消失。实证分析则采用2012年《中国统计年鉴》中由支出法统计的GDP和三大消费数据,对我国现阶段三大消费与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。格兰杰因果检验发现除了除了城镇居民消费与经济增长之间在5%的显著水平上存在因果关系外,其余的均不存在明显的因果关系。建立VAR(2)模型并进行脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析。分析表明,我国三大消费与经济增长之间的关系并不明显,但均有正向的拉动作用；与农村居民消费相比,我国城镇居民消费与经济增长、城镇居民消费与政府消费支出的关系都更为显著,这表明我国农村居民消费支出对经济增长的影响小于城镇居民消费。经过理论和实证分析,发现我国三大消费与经济增长关系不明显；农村居民消费与经济增长和政府消费支出的关系不如城镇居民消费支出与二者的关系明显。因此,本文提出在采取政策促进消费对经济增长作用的时候,应该注意城镇居民和农村居民之间的差异,有针对性的采取措施,而不能采取一刀切政策。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of consumption on economic growth since the reform and opening up. Because of the distinct urban-rural dual economic structure in our country, there is a huge difference between the consumption of urban residents and that of rural residents, so the total consumption of our country can be divided into the consumption of urban residents. This paper studies and compares the effects of rural residents' consumption and government consumption on economic growth. This paper is divided into two parts: theoretical and empirical analysis. Firstly, using the development stage theory of development economics theory for reference, the paper analyzes the influence of three consumption on economic growth. Then, using the GDP and three consumption expenditure data from 1978 to 2011, this paper studies the influence of the three major consumption expenditure on the economic growth in order to reveal the current situation of the effect of consumption on economic growth in China. On this basis, combining the present situation of our country with the theoretical analysis, it is suggested that different consumption should be treated differently and different countermeasures should be taken when we strengthen the effect of consumption on economic growth. In the theoretical analysis, the paper analyzes the influence of the three consumption on the economic growth according to the development stage theory in the development economics theory. First of all, using Rostow's division of economic growth stage, the process of a country's economic development from starting to high level is divided into four stages: the beginning development stage, the rapid development stage, the mature advancing stage and the mature stage. In different stages of development, the influence of government consumption expenditure and urban and rural residents' consumption expenditure on economic growth is different. Secondly, it analyzes the "crowding in" effect and "crowding out" effect of government consumption expenditure on economic growth. The relative strength of the two effects determines the overall effect of government consumption expenditure on economic growth. In the whole process of economic development, the role of government consumption expenditure on economic growth has experienced a similar "inverted U" trajectory. Finally, it analyzes the difference between urban and rural residents' consumption on economic growth, and the change of this difference in the whole process of economic development. It is found that with the development of economy, this difference is from small to large, and finally becomes small and vanishing due to the gradual disappearance of dual economic structure. The empirical analysis is based on the GDP and three consumption data collected from the Chinese Statistical Yearbook of 2012. The relationship between the three consumption and the economic growth in China at present is analyzed empirically. Granger causality test found that there was no significant causal relationship between urban residents' consumption and economic growth except for the significant level of 5%. The VAR (2) model was established and the impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis were carried out. The analysis shows that the relationship between the three major consumption and economic growth is not obvious, but all of them have positive pulling effect. Compared with the rural residents' consumption, the relationship between the urban residents' consumption and the economic growth, the urban residents' consumption and the government's consumption expenditure is more significant, which indicates that the impact of the rural residents' consumption expenditure on the economic growth is less than that on the urban residents' consumption. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, it is found that the relationship between the three major consumption and economic growth is not obvious, and the relationship between rural residents' consumption and economic growth and government consumption expenditure is not as obvious as that of urban residents' consumption expenditure and economic growth. Therefore, when we adopt policies to promote consumption on economic growth, we should pay attention to the differences between urban and rural residents, and take targeted measures instead of one-size-fits-all policies.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1;F126.1

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