河北省产业结构与经济增长的关系的实证研究

发布时间：2019-02-20 18:51

【摘要】：现代经济学界普遍认为经济增长和产业结构之间存在着密切的关系，一定条件下，产业结构变动是经济增长的基础，而经济增长又会反过来进一步促进产业结构的变动。关于二者的关系，国内外学者做了大量的理论和实证研究。其中，实证研究在理论研究的基础上运用数据模型讨论变量之间的相互关系，使论证结果更能令人信服。自1978年改革开放以来，河北省坚持以经济建设为中心，经济飞速发展，经济总量不断增加，产业结构也经历了由“二、一、三”向“二、三、一”的转变过程，产业结构日趋合理。但该省经济在较长时期的快速发展过程中也积累了许多问题和矛盾，本文通过对河北省三次产业的产值结构，就业结构，比较劳动生产率和产业结构偏离度的分析发现，河北产业结构层次较低，，第一产业发展落后，农业现代化程度较低，产业效益低下。第二产业产值比重在达到50%以后并未呈现下降趋势，而且产业内部重工业化严重，第三产业发展缓慢等。正是由于河北省在经济发展中经济发展方式粗放，资源依赖程度高，科技创新能力不足等因素导致了这些问题的产生。本文依据产业结构与经济增长的相关的理论，运用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验的方法对1983-2011年河北省三次产业的数据资料进行了实证分析，分析结果表明河北省的产业结构和经济增长之间存在着一种长期均衡关系，第二产业对经济增长的贡献较大，而第一产业和第三产业相对较小。另外，格兰杰因果检验的结果证明了产业结构与经济增长的双向因果关系，即产业结构的演进推动着经济增长，而经济增长又会促进产业结构的调整和优化。文章最后一部分则在上述理论和实证分析的基础上提出了关于河北省产业结构调整的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Modern economists generally believe that there is a close relationship between economic growth and industrial structure. Under certain conditions, the change of industrial structure is the basis of economic growth, and economic growth will in turn further promote the change of industrial structure. On the relationship between the two, domestic and foreign scholars have done a lot of theoretical and empirical research. On the basis of theoretical research, the empirical study uses the data model to discuss the relationship between variables, which makes the results more convincing. Since the reform and opening to the outside world in 1978, Hebei Province has insisted on taking economic construction as the center, the economy has developed at a rapid speed, the total economic volume has been continuously increased, and the industrial structure has also undergone a process of transformation from "two, one, three" to "two, three, one". The industrial structure is becoming more and more reasonable. However, the province's economy has accumulated many problems and contradictions in the long period of rapid development. Through the analysis of the output value structure, the employment structure, the comparative labor productivity and the deviation degree of the industrial structure of the three industries in Hebei Province, this paper finds that, Hebei's industrial structure is low, the primary industry is backward, the agricultural modernization is low, and the industrial efficiency is low. The proportion of the output value of the secondary industry has not shown a downward trend after reaching 50%, and the heavy industry inside the industry is serious, and the tertiary industry is developing slowly and so on. It is due to the extensive mode of economic development in Hebei Province, the high degree of resource dependence, the lack of scientific and technological innovation ability and other factors that lead to these problems. Based on the theory of industrial structure and economic growth, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the data of three industries in Hebei Province from 1983 to 2011 by using the methods of cointegration test and Granger causality test. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the industrial structure and economic growth in Hebei Province, and the contribution of the secondary industry to economic growth is greater, while the primary industry and the tertiary industry are relatively small. In addition, the result of Granger causality test proves the two-way causality between industrial structure and economic growth, that is, the evolution of industrial structure promotes economic growth, and economic growth will promote the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure. In the last part of the article, the author puts forward some policy suggestions on the adjustment of industrial structure in Hebei province on the basis of the above theoretical and empirical analysis.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F279.2;F224

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