中国经济增长“三驾马车”失衡悖论

发布时间：2019-03-07 13:00

【摘要】：在中国经济保持长达三十余年高速增长为世人瞩目的同时,拉动经济增长的"三驾马车"——投资、消费和净出口的"比例失衡"也遭到垢病。本文根据中国社会经济发展的阶段性,基于112个国家近四十年数据进行国际比较分析发现,中国的消费需求不像人们所说的那样疲软,经济增长也并非是出口导向型的,而近二十年的高速经济增长的确主要依赖投资拉动,但并不一定就意味着投资过度。笔者认为,支撑中国长期高速增长的"三驾马车""失衡",实质上是一种宏观动态结构性均衡,或者说没有这种"三驾马车"的比例关系,也就没有这一时期的长期高速增长。展望未来,随着中国经济发展阶段进入一个新的历史时期,特别是经济增长战略在适度降低增长速度的同时转向创新驱动增长,"三驾马车""失衡"自然会明显改观。
[Abstract]:While China's economy has been growing at a high speed for more than three decades, the "three troika"-investment, consumption and net exports-has also been tainted. According to the stages of China's socio-economic development and based on the data of 112 countries in the past 40 years, this paper makes an international comparative analysis and finds that China's consumer demand is not as weak as people say, and its economic growth is not export-oriented either. And the high-speed economic growth of the last two decades is indeed largely driven by investment, but it does not necessarily mean excessive investment. The author believes that the "Troika" imbalance, which supports China's long-term and high-speed growth, is essentially a macro-dynamic structural equilibrium, or that there is no such proportional relationship between the troika and the troika. There is no long-term high-speed growth during this period. Looking forward to the future, as the stage of China's economic development enters a new historical period, especially as the economic growth strategy decreases the growth rate moderately while turning to innovation-driven growth, the "troika" imbalance "will naturally change obviously.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心;中国科学技术信息研究所;
【基金】：中国人民大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助项目“中国财政政策理论体系与制度设计研究”
【分类号】：F124

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